What the Spain result tells F1 about the next phase of the Mercedes/Red Bull title fight

It would be understandable if the Red Bull Formula 1 team is feeling somewhat frustrated after the first four races of 2021.

Red Bull has closed the gap to the Mercedes squad that produced what is likely to go down as one of the best F1 cars in history – aided by the changes to the rear floor rules – and started the season with the fastest car. And yet, the Black Arrows squad still leads both championships, with Lewis Hamilton now on three victories to Max Verstappen’s one, following his Spanish Grand Prix triumph.

It’d be easy for Red Bull to say, and indeed, it is saying, via Verstappen in an understandable attempt to put a positive spin on defeat in a race where he led 54 laps, that “compared to last year it has been a big jump forwards”. But competitors at sport’s highest level just aren’t wired to accept ‘good enough’. And you can be sure Red Bull is as motivated by the Barcelona loss as it is disappointed that Mercedes was able to wrest back the win.

Take Hamilton. After sealing seven world titles, he’s now made the best-ever start to a wildly successful F1 career (although only edging the start he made in 2015 because of the fastest lap point he scored at Imola). He knows that ‘good enough’ simply won’t cut it.

“Every year I come back and I’m always trying to improve,” he said when this was put to him in the aftermath of his 98th F1 win. “Most often it tends to be, or it seems impossible, but it’s a necessity.

“The Red Bulls have started off incredibly strong. They do have a championship-winning car and opportunity. It’s going to take everything from us, not only me bringing my A-game but the team bringing their A-game – weekend-in, weekend-out. Otherwise, these guys will be winning.”

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, 2nd position, Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, 1st position, and Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes, 3rd position, on the podium

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Red Bull now must harness the motivation stemming from the opening events of 2021.

Seeing the lengths Hamilton and Mercedes are going too to preserve their respective positions is inspirational from the outside, so Red Bull must turn that into its own positive progress and not fall into a cycle of despondency. Hamilton may be on 94 points out 104, but Verstappen is on 80. Red Bull is firmly in the hunt.

That was also clear from its pace last weekend. The Barcelona race continued the trend of Red Bull’s Saturday pace not quite converting on a Sunday, with rear tyre degradation towards the end of a stint the key difference versus Mercedes, which used tactical brilliance to solve the Barcelona overtaking problem. But Mercedes itself has proved that rear car trouble can be improved – as evidenced by its progress in this area since testing.

PLUS: How Red Bull's deja vu set Hamilton on the winning path in Spain

Defeat at Barcelona also doesn’t necessarily mean the pecking order is now set for Red Bull to be behind Mercedes.

The big development push that teams would normally bring to Barcelona to cover them for the middle part of the season hasn’t happened – so the ‘fine margins’ work and minor improvement remains key

“Historically, Barcelona was a race where everyone would bring big updates,” explains Mercedes’ director of trackside engineering, Andrew Shovlin. “But these days, we’ve got a cost cap, completely different regulations next year to think of, we’re heavily restricted on when we can use the windtunnel. No one was going to bring a massive update to this race.”

The big development push that teams would normally bring to Barcelona to cover them for the middle part of the season hasn’t happened – so the ‘fine margins’ work and minor improvement remains key. Mercedes simply can’t develop its way clear (although the same is true for Red Bull). Both teams must too be ever-more wary of nailing the timing of switching resources to their 2022 challengers.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Red Bull did something interesting in Spain.

Mercedes observed its rival running considerably more downforce in practice, which it removed for qualifying and the race. Mercedes, per Shovlin, was “running our max downforce swing” across the weekend. This, plus Verstappen’s pace in the technical final sector at Barcelona (he was faster there in qualifying), suggests Red Bull will be strong in Monaco – where it has historically gone well in the turbo hybrid era – and again in Hungary before the summer break. Again, it has tended to do well there in recent years. But Monaco comes next and is surely now a ‘must-win’ event for Red Bull.

Looking further ahead, the historical form book is likely to be a key indicator for the next phase of the season – and it doesn’t look too bad for Red Bull.

While Baku and Paul Ricard have been something of Mercedes strongholds since joining the calendar, it has done well on home turf in Austria (where Mercedes’ track record is comparatively poor of late) and it won the last race at Silverstone. Mercedes struggled considerably on the resurfaced Istanbul track before Hamilton’s wet-weather brilliance won it the 2020 race, but after the UK government’s announcement that Turkey in now on its travel ‘red list’ means its status is far from clear at the time of writing.

The fact things are much closer at the front of the F1 grid in 2021 makes all of the above extra encouraging for Red Bull. It is further down the line where things get murkier for both squads. Mercedes and Hamilton have traditionally been supreme in the second half of the season. But 2022 is looming and therefore the typical development gains won’t likely be coming.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Predictions in modern F1 are fraught with peril. But what if there’s something really unexpected in store for the next part of F1 2021’s title fight?

Verstappen’s Turn 1 move at Barcelona was just on the right side of acceptable. He needed Hamilton to be compliant, which the world champion was because “I don’t get too aggressive when I don’t need to be”.

Hamilton has the sense and experience to stay clear of a public spat over these moves, but there is a sense that something is building. Sooner or later, there may well be fireworks

In the post-race press conference last weekend, Hamilton was choosing his words very carefully when discussing the start. The title contenders have had start clashes in two of the four races so far. At Imola, Hamilton was arguably the aggressor, keeping himself alongside Verstappen in a sequence where he was always going to be run out of room. At Barcelona, Verstappen forced the issue.

Hamilton has the sense and experience to stay clear of a public spat over these moves, but there is a sense that something is building. Sooner or later, there may well be fireworks. And perhaps that will be the destabilising factor either side finds provides the ultimate edge.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, 1st position, and Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, 2nd position, talk in Parc Ferme

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images