Unravelling the decline of Vettel's F1 career

When Sebastian Vettel is on song, he is a sight to behold. In harmony with his car, which for him needs a strong front end allied to a predicable rear that he can manipulate in the way he likes, he is close to unbeatable.

Think of the Red Bull years, Vettel perfectly attuned to the exhaust-blown aerodynamics of Adrian Newey's designs, a seemingly never-ending sequence of pole positions, races surrendering to his will, an era defined in a blur of blue and purple perfection, and by Vettel's index finger raised in celebration, smiling blue eyes visible through the slit in his helmet.

But that was a long time ago; a different time. And Vettel, it seems, was a different person. Then he was all light and sun, a joke never far away. Now, the lightness is still there, at least in person, but the jokes have dried up. There's a defensiveness about him, and a red-mist rage surfaces all too often.

Consider the 12 months between the last two British Grands Prix. In that period, Vettel made significant errors in seven races - crashing out of the lead in Germany in 2018; hitting Lewis Hamilton and spinning while battling for position on the first lap in Italy; crashing into Max Verstappen while trying to pass at Spoon Curve in Japan; spinning while racing with Daniel Ricciardo in America; spinning after being passed by Hamilton in Bahrain this year; going across the grass while leading in Canada (an incident that led to the penalty that cost him the race win); clumsily crashing into the back of Verstappen in Britain.

That's a mistake that cost significant points in one in every three grands prix. At the same time, there have been several examples of Vettel apparently losing his rag while in the car - ranting at the mechanics in a wet qualifying session in Belgium, and what can only be described as a temper tantrum, albeit understandable, when informed of the penalty 
in Canada to name but two.

This is not a sequence of events that is expected of a four-time world champion, with the third-best winning record in the history of Formula 1. And the question up and down the paddock is what on earth has happened to him; what is going on?

When these incidents happen, Vettel's modus operandi is to play them down, diminish their importance. It was a mistake, they happen, he says, before talking about the positives. But he admitted in a recent interview with the BBC that Hockenheim 2018, for example, "did hurt - a lot".

Vettel says that what's important is "the how, as in what happened. We had a couple of incidents last year - I had - where they didn't go our way, for sure. Maybe I didn't look very good in them. I don't know; if you take Hockenheim, if you take what happened in Monza. A lot of it is taking risk and racing. Unfortunately, not always it works. That's the way I look at it.

"I didn't stress too much about it. I didn't feel like I needed to have my head fixed or anything like that. I know what happened inside the cockpit. I know what I've done. I looked at it.
 And of course, I hope not to do that again. But then you have to move on. Because what do you do? You hang yourself? No, so get on with it, you know what I mean? For me, that's racing. As beautiful as it can get, it can also be cruel sometimes."

As for the red-mist moments - to which we also have to add Baku 2017, when Vettel incorrectly believed he had been brake-tested by Hamilton behind the safety car and responded by driving alongside, gesticulating and banging wheels with the Mercedes - Vettel says he doesn't see the big deal.

"It's just emotions," he argues. "I'll give you an example. Something happens in racing. I shout, because I am annoyed in that moment, and it's like [I'm playing tennis and] I
missed to give the ball enough spin. It goes out and I yell like [John] McEnroe.

"Everybody knows what I mean. And then nowadays you face [the media] two weeks after and people asking: 'Do you have an anger-management problem?' If you think about it, I find that so disrespectful, because you've had two weeks to think about something and that's what you come up with? That is disrespectful. I'm not personally offended. But, are you serious? That's why sometimes I don't get it."

Which is all very well. You can see his point. But the incidents keep happening all the same. It's all such a contrast from his Red Bull days.

"With us," says Red Bull team principal Christian Horner, "Sebastian was like a metronome when he was in the lead of a grand prix. He was always so strong in that position."

The two situations are not the same, though. At Red Bull, more often than not, Vettel had the best car in the field, he had qualified on pole or the front row, taken the lead at the start and controlled the race from there, managing the Pirellis just-so. In fact, it's striking when looking down a list of Vettel's victories just what a high proportion of them have happened in that fashion.

There have been some wins like that at Ferrari, too. And there have been times - particularly in 2017 and 2018 - when the car's been the class of the field and he has gone with it all the way, and in doing so looked like the driver of the Red Bull era.

In both those seasons, Vettel looked a strong bet for the championship only to fade in the second half of the year. In 2018, in particular, had Vettel driven a flawless season such as Fernando Alonso did at Ferrari in 2012, he could have won the championship despite Ferrari's fading form in the second half of the campaign.

Vettel is now five years into his Ferrari career, and still hasn't won the title - like Alonso was in 2014, when he decided enough was enough. But Vettel isn't Alonso. They are both superlative racing drivers, but with very different qualities.

Give Vettel a car he likes, and he's arguably the fastest driver in the field. But he needs what he calls "the feeling" to perform at his best. Some believe his peaks might be higher than Alonso's or Hamilton's. But he is also far less adaptable, so his talent can shine in fewer situations.

Equally, while Vettel can be demanding, he is a much easier personality than Alonso. But if Alonso created pressure, his driving was impervious to it. Vettel's is not. And he is clearly not as able to handle a situation in which he is fighting a rear-guard battle, or struggling in a less-than- ultimately competitive car, than either of the other two men who have collectively defined the first decade of Vettel's career.

The problem that faces Vettel right now is that, half a decade into his Ferrari career, the team has now taken a dip too - and the championship looks further away again, certainly than it did for the past two years.

"You can see a slight similar pattern to Alonso," says a former grand prix driver, speaking on condition of anonymity. "You go to Ferrari. It is like this crazy love, amazing, everything-cool relationship, and then over the years this pressure creeps in, and then there is the frustration that some things don't change.

"It gets a bit tricky. The team gets frustrated with you; the engineers. So, you are in this position where everyone is a bit fed up but you still respect each other. It's a bit like a marriage which is not full of passion. But still a marriage. That's what they have.

"And then this young kid helicopters in, full of energy, which is only going to last a certain amount of time as well. It is like an affair. It's great, the energy, and then the dynamic shifts to the other side of the garage, and that's difficult. And that's where they are."

That's a reference to Charles Leclerc, whose arrival this year has changed the internal dynamic at Ferrari significantly. Vettel lost Kimi Raikkonen, a friend, whose pace generally was not troublesome to him, and who was uncomplaining on the rare occasions he was in front and was asked to move aside.

In Raikkonen's place has come a 21-year old of obvious talent, signed because Ferrari consider him the future, who is accepting of team orders but clear he's determined to get into a position where they are not needed because he's ahead, and is showing that he's capable of delivering on his ambition. In this situation, there are clear parallels with the one Vettel faced at Red Bull in 2014 with Ricciardo.

Into a team in which until then Vettel had been the clear dominant force, has come a new guy brimming with enthusiasm and talent, determined to make his name with his first big chance in a top team. At the same time, the proud champion is faced with a drop in competitiveness from his car.

Five years ago, this led to Vettel leaving - and starting his journey with Ferrari. Could the same happen again? There have been rumours for much of the year of Vettel leaving Ferrari, talk of a potential swap with Verstappen, or of replacing the Dutchman if he goes to Mercedes. That looks to be pie in the sky.

Verstappen's first ambition is to make the Red Bull-Honda package work, and every sign is he is well minded to give it more time. At Mercedes, Valtteri Bottas has been retained, but Toto Wolff does have the problem that Hamilton is 34 and can't go on forever - and he needs to think of a replacement. But that problem could be three to five years away at least given the way Hamilton has been talking recently.

If Mercedes is not an option, why would Verstappen leave Red Bull for Ferrari, given this year's competitive picture? And if he doesn't, the attractiveness for Vettel of swapping an internal battle at Ferrari with Leclerc for one at Red Bull with Verstappen would surely be minimal.

So, what is the future for Vettel? He is not keen on some aspects of F1: he doesn't appreciate being a public figure, he thinks the cars are too heavy, he really doesn't like the sensitivity of Pirelli's tyres - although he is careful about how he puts this in public. But for all that, the goal with which he came to Ferrari in 2015 - to emulate Michael Schumacher and win back the title for the Scuderia - remains.

"In a way," he says, "it is crazy it has been four, now five, years. A lot of stuff happened, good and bad - a lot of good especially - that I look to, and I have reason to look forward, too. I love the racing bit of it, standing on the grid, seeing that so many people get excited about what we do collectively, racing these cars. That really does something. It gives me a lot of adrenalin, makes me nervous on Sunday morning when I wake up. I still feel different than waking up Thursday or Monday.

"And I want to succeed. I want to make this work. If I will succeed, I don't know, but that's what I want, and that's what determines the future. And what's happening now, but it also depends on where the sport is going, and so on."

Take that at face value and it sounds like he will stay at Ferrari at least until the end of his contract next year. If so, that's the immediate future sorted. Then, he can make a call, based on his opportunities, and what he sees of the 2021 rules.

As for the mistakes, they, wise observers believe, are coming from a desire to compensate for the car's shortcomings. If he is to achieve his goal, Vettel will have to hope Ferrari ups its game, and that he can go with the team while fending off Leclerc. It could be the biggest challenge of his career.