The war reality that shines a light on the job Red Bull is doing

In a bid to protect battle lines, keep control of computer systems, or stop your unfancied rival from beating you, defenders can never let their guard down.

No matter what is thrown at them, one moment of distraction can be enough to turn the tide of war.
Sometimes it does not even require that. An instant of good fortune for the aggressors can be all it takes for them to succeed.

The attackers just have to be lucky once. The defenders have to be lucky all the time.

It is a reality that is quite fitting for evaluating the job that Max Verstappen and Red Bull are doing in Formula 1 at the moment in getting it right all the time.

With a car advantage and the tag as F1’s clear favourites each weekend, they are the ones in need of defending their position in that chase for the next win.

Just one mistake, or a single piece of bad luck, and it can all come crashing down.

Each time they go out there, they are up against the might of nine other teams ready to ride their fortune and capitalise on that single moment when they get it right and Red Bull get it wrong.

Max Verstappen's curtailed qualifying in Saudi Arabia was a rare example of a Red Bull slip-up

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

As Red Bull design genius Adrian Newey said about the situation his team finds itself in, there are some downsides to going into each weekend as the acknowledged favourite – which is why there is no smugness from him about where things stand right now.

“As soon as you are smug, the next moment you've been overtaken,” he told Red Bull’s own podcast last week. “So, you really can't afford to be smug.

“When you're leading and are (the) favourite, then it actually brings its own pressures, because then if you have problems, everybody kind of criticises you. If you are lucky enough to carry on and win, then everybody says well, we knew that was going to happen.”

Newey is spot on in that it becomes all too easy to see Red Bull reeling off win after win and think that it is just simply the result of a team going through the motions and exploiting a significant car advantage.

"As soon as you are smug, the next moment you've been overtaken. So, you really can't afford to be smug." Adrian Newey

Although Red Bull does have the benchmark 2023 F1 car, and so its job in winning is so much easier than anyone else’s, that should not take away from the fact that for the squad to keep up its impressive win tally, there is no moment when it can sit back and think it has done enough.

That one slip, just one moment, when circumstance works against it will be all it takes for someone else to grab that top step.

No weekend has given us a clearer indication of the way that Red Bull and Max Verstappen are operating at such a high level as the Monaco Grand Prix, where jeopardy appeared to lay around every corner to prevent the squad from extending its victory streak.

Red Bull kept its nose in front of some capable challengers in Monaco

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Up against what it anticipated to be its biggest challenge yet from the opposition – with the lack of straights, low-speed corners and high-downforce demands of Monte Carlo playing more into the hands of Aston Martin and Ferrari, this was a weekend where Red Bull was in need of perfection.

But rise to the challenge it did. With Fernando Alonso and Charles Leclerc clearly fired up by the opportunity they had (remember the attackers only need to be lucky once), Verstappen’s execution of things was stand out.

At the end of what was arguably one of the best qualifying sessions in recent F1 history, Verstappen’s final sector performance to overturn an advantage that Alonso had built up earlier in the lap was the stuff of legend.

As Red Bull team boss Christian Horner reflected on Sunday night: “That lap will go down as one of the all-time great laps here in Monaco. It was stunning.”

But while that pole lap laid the foundations for the win, Verstappen still had to do an impressive job on Sunday to not leave the door ajar for his attacking pursuers.

The choice of starting on mediums, up against Alonso on the hards, left the door open for a big compromise as the rain clouds blew in and forced his stint to be extended much further than he would have liked.

Then there was the extra stress and potential for things to be over when the downpour came and there were mere seconds to make a call.

Switch to inters in the Monaco GP could have been an opportunity for Red Bull's rivals. But none could capitalise.

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Yet for all the opportunity there was to mess it up, it was Aston Martin that was perhaps kicking itself more after the stops for having kept Alonso on slicks just as the rain came in.

A switch to inters at that point would have heaped a lot more pressure on Red Bull, and potentially even put victory in the Spaniard’s grasp. Instead, Verstappen was let off the hook.

Sure, luck played its part. If the rain had gone away at the moment Alonso committed to slicks, it would have been hailed an inspired decision.

Red Bull’s success in Monaco has fittingly put it on a streak that matches McLaren’s famous tally in 1988 – of 15 wins from 16 races.

But it didn’t, and it showed perfectly that the defenders at Red Bull need to be lucky every time if they are going to keep their victory tally building.

Red Bull’s success in Monaco has fittingly put it on a streak that matches McLaren’s famous tally in 1988 – of 15 wins from 16 races.

Its roll of success began at last year’s French Grand Prix and, apart from George Russell’s surprise triumph in Brazil in November, it is the Milton Keynes squad that has always come out on top since.

It is currently well on course to challenge the record of the most wins in a season, which was held by Mercedes in 2016 when Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg won 19 of the 21 races that took place that season. Its two defeats came at the hands of Red Bull in Spain and Malaysia.

Back in 2016, Red Bull played the sniping attacker role against Mercedes

Photo by: Andrew Hone / Motorsport Images

In percentage terms, to beat McLaren’s 1988 feat of winning 93.8% of races, it will need to win 21 of the current 22 that are scheduled. That would give it a hit rate of 95.45%.

But can it do even better than that? With Red Bull having overcome perhaps its biggest challenge by winning Monaco, talk has inevitably ramped up about the possibility of it winning every race this season. On current form, you would be hard-pressed to argue against it.

Horner though is keeping such ambitions far from his thoughts at the moment, as he continues his mantra about taking things one weekend at a time.

“You’re trying to get me to do an Arsene Wenger here but I’m not going to,” said Horner, referring to famous comments the former Arsenal manager made in 2002 when he suggested his team could go unbeaten that season.

“There is so much jeopardy – you saw it here with the weather. There are so many factors that can go wrong, and the competition is so strong that anything can happen. We’re just taking it one race at a time.”

Wenger’s prediction of being unbeaten was widely mocked that year, especially when a few weeks later his side suffered its first defeat of that Premiership campaign.

But while Wenger’s prediction proved wrong that time around, it did ultimately come true in 2003/4 as Arsenal was undefeated – earning that squad the nickname of ‘The Invincibles’.

So, what chance Red Bull can be invincible itself?

The opportunity is definitely there, even though fate and circumstance may yet have the final word. However, even in the toughest of wars, defenders can indeed get lucky all the time.

Red Bull has a whole pack of F1 teams snapping at its heels. But so far it's holding them off...

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images