The signs that suggest Mercedes can win the Silverstone F1 race

The worst thing about Formula 1’s Silverstone sprint qualifying race is that the shootout duel between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen in ‘normal’ qualifying on Friday night now becomes a footnote, the Black Arrows driver’s brilliance in front of his adoring home crowd unrewarded by a 101st category pole.

But the best thing about it is the way it has aligned the title rivals on the grid for Sunday’s grand prix – because of the potential for further swings between them if certain circumstances play out. Verstappen will start from pole, statistically his eighth in the official recognition list – a bizarre reward for he and Red Bull underachieving in qualifying.

But here we are – F1’s best two drivers share the front row once again, with the difference between them apparently back to the fine margins that characterised the start of the 2021 season and before Red Bull went on a rampant five-race winning streak while Mercedes fell behind.

Make no mistake, though – Verstappen starts today’s British Grand Prix as the favourite.

He’s on his own run of four victories from that five and still possesses the season’s fastest package overall. He was also able to weather Hamilton’s pressure at the start of the first race, after leaping ahead off the line when the world champion bogged down with wheelspin, and was not under major pressure afterwards.

But there have been signs from the rest of the weekend and from F1’s most-recent Silverstone grand prix that should encourage Mercedes ahead of race two.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B, Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Sunday’s event is set to be a one-stopper – unless circumstances shake up the race, such as safety car interventions or red flags. The fastest way is apparently to start on the mediums and then switch to the hards after around two-fifths of the 52-lap race have been completed.

Pirelli estimates that going soft-hard is possible, but in any case, the top two teams have no new sets of the red-walled rubber remaining and they generally favour the harder compounds for the start as they offer greater strategic flexibility when the first stint ends.

But, like on Saturday afternoon, the moment the tyre blankets are removed before the start on Sunday will matter more than usual, with the whole grid free to pick whatever compound they want to use in the opening stint, with no Q2 rule applying here. Expect a few runners down the order to try something different, likely with the softs, which worked so well for Fernando Alonso on Saturday.

"If I can try to keep up with them through the stints, maybe we can apply pressure through strategy – but we’re not going to be overtaking them on the track: they’re just too fast. So, we play the long game" Lewis Hamilton

The one-stop strategy and very high temperatures at Silverstone – the race is predicted to start in 28°C air temperature – will likely make this an event heavily dependent on tyre management.

And here lies the first reason why Mercedes should be hopeful it can take on Verstappen.

First, although the Dutchman and his team demonstrated in France that they have made excellent progress on rear tyre wear, which caught them out in Spain, Hamilton’s tyre management is one of his historical strengths and a key pillar of his world title haul. And, as seen in the first race at Silverstone, front tyre blistering in the scorching conditions and long, fast corners here will be the limiting factor on Sunday.

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12, 3rd position, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B, 1st position, and Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, 2nd position

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Plus, Sergio Perez’s qualifying and sprint qualifying dramas mean Verstappen has no support in his battle against Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas, which could leave him vulnerable even if he has a slight ultimate pace advantage and the tyre management tactics aren’t enough to force a wheel-to-wheel fight. Hamilton is perhaps already thinking along these lines.

“I think [Verstappen] had a lot of pace in him and I don’t think he was particularly having to push too hard, and we were flat-out,” Hamilton said after his sprint race defeat. “It’s going to be tough.

“If I can try somehow to keep up with them through the stints, maybe we can apply pressure through strategy – but we’re not going to be overtaking them on the track: they’re just too fast. So, we play the long game hopefully.”

Hamilton’s team boss agrees.

“I think we have pace,” Toto Wolff said on Saturday. “If Lewis would have held the position at the beginning [of the sprint race], I think we would have pretty much had the same race, just with a Mercedes in front.

“That means we were equal in performance. And with two cars right there you can split the strategies – you can go long, you could try overcutting, you can try undercutting, starting on different tyres. That is certainly a big advantage.”

But the tyre degradation factor could yet lead to an on-track scrap, as was seen in the 2020 70th Anniversary GP, which is another reason Mercedes should be encouraged.

On that day last August, it was Verstappen who pressured the faster and more downforce-laden Mercedes machines into eating through their tyres – although it should be noted that the Q2 rule meant he was able to start that race with an early advantage, running a compound step harder from the off.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

The top three today all have one set of new and one used set of hards remaining, while Verstappen and Bottas have two new mediums to Hamilton’s one. This situation suggests the leading teams will likely run very similar strategies, but Mercedes has the option of starting one of its cars on an alternate compound should it try and bring its numerical advantage to bear immediately.

There’s another factor from the 70th Anniversary GP that may well apply again on Sunday, and it concerns how the Red Bull and Mercedes cars are set-up. Red Bull has more downforce overall as Mercedes slimmed things down in a bid to gain against Honda on the straights. The extra downforce was a hinderance for Mercedes nearly a year ago, simply because its cars worked the rubber harder through Silverstone’s high corner loads as a result.

Mercedes long-run average on the hards was 1m31.596s over a 12-lap stint, while Red Bull came in at 1m31.889s over nine laps. Encouraging, but also possibly misleading given the practice caveats

So, Verstappen needs to be wary of that occurring again, and Hamilton and Bottas being rapid in a straight line if they get close. But Christian Horner isn’t unduly worried, although he’s perhaps understating the need for Verstappen to push if he’s under pressure from behind.

“The temperatures look set to sore and tomorrow’s grand prix won’t be a repeat in terms of tyre wear,” the Red Bull team boss explained after the sprint race.

“[Because] the higher fuel loads at the start of the race mean the cornering speeds will be slightly lower, giving the tyres an easier workout in the corners at the beginning of the race, so it will be interesting to see how that affects things.”

Then there’s the FP2 long-run averages, which also appear to favour Mercedes.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

But, perhaps even more than usual, reading these times must be treated with caveat caution – as the session did not fit the usual run profile because the cars have been frozen by the parc ferme rules since Friday evening and the teams insist the fuel loads run early on Saturday afternoon varied considerably. One source even suggested Red Bull spent that session concentrating purely on its sprint race preparations.

But, for what it’s worth, Mercedes long-run average on the hards was 1m31.596s over a 12-lap stint, while Red Bull came in at 1m31.889s over nine laps. Encouraging, but also possibly misleading given the practice caveats we’re so fond of highlighting. The same applies to Verstappen being ordered off the kerbs at the end of the sprint race and his gap to Hamilton dropping by 1.5s as a result. He and Red Bull were simply playing the circumstances of the session.

“We learnt [in the sprint race] that it is very close again with us and Mercedes,” Verstappen concluded.

“It seems that we are very quick in the corners and they are quicker on the straights so Sunday is going to be a really exciting battle.”

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, 2nd position, and Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, 1st position, congratulate each other

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images