The reasons why Ferrari should fear another false dawn

For the fifth time in 2019, Ferrari topped the timesheets during Friday practice for a grand prix - the fourth time it has done so with a one-two.

But what it is yet to do is to convert a single one of those into a victory, so there are legitimate fears that this German Grand Prix practice form is another false flash of Ferrari promise given how the picture changes when you apply the trends of the season - and the anticipated weather conditions - to what we saw on Friday.

The conditions were unusual, with sky-high ambient temperatures of just above 40C and scorching track temperatures that are not expected to carry over for the rest of the weekend. Everyone was struggling a little with cooling and tyre temperatures, and high temperatures have usually been Ferrari's friend and, as Austria showed, the enemy of Mercedes.

As is often the case at Hockenheim, it was close. Charles Leclerc's fastest time for Ferrari was just 0.146 seconds clear of Lewis Hamilton in the lead Mercedes. The pattern of performance was exactly as you would have predicted, with Ferrari 0.123s faster in the short first sector, 0.259s quicker in the long middle sector and then Hamilton clawing back almost two tenths in the twister stadium section.

That's not necessarily good news for Ferrari, which has on average not taken as big a step in performance from FP2 through to Q3 as Mercedes has done over the season. If the average step is repeated on Saturday, then Mercedes would be ahead. To that we must add the caveat that this is one specific circuit, and the deviation from the average can be significant.

What's more, Ferrari is generally not as strong in the races as over a single lap, meaning the advantage of the red cars is not big enough even to be sure of a clear advantage. So the single-lap pace is, in a word, inconclusive. But it's always encouraging to be ahead.

Single-lap pace

1 Ferrari (Leclerc), 1m13.449s
2 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m13.595s
3 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m14.133s
4 Haas (Grosjean), 1m14.179s
5 Racing Point (Stroll), 1m14.268s
6 Alfa Romeo (Raikkonen), 1m14.458s
7 Renault (Hulkenberg), 1m14.472s
8 McLaren (Sainz), 1m14.662s
9 Toro Rosso (Kvyat), 1m14.800s
10 Williams (Russell), 1m16.900s

That Romain Grosjean was best of the rest on single-lap place in a Haas that, as at Silverstone, has been returned to its specification from the season-opening Australian Grand Prix is a surprise.

While the version Kevin Magnussen drove, which did run the upgraded bargeboard package at times, is supposedly delivering more downforce, Grosjean remains more comfortable in the older version. Doubtless there will be much head scratching at Haas.

Racing Point, with its heavily upgraded car, also had a good all-round day. The team has struggled on corner entry, particularly when it comes to control of the aerodynamic centre of pressure, and the early hints are that this package gives both more downforce and greater controllability.

Things are encouraging for Ferrari on long-run pace. The soft Pirellis are the only tyre compound that all of the big three teams completed meaningful runs on, with Vettel completing six laps that were on average almost three-tenths faster than Hamilton. Red Bull driver Max Verstappen split the pair, around two-tenths down on Vettel and almost a tenth ahead of Hamilton.

Long-run pace (softs)

1 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m19.389s (6 laps)
2 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m19.576s (6 laps)
3 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m19.662s (5 laps)
4 Alfa Romeo (Raikkonen), 1m20.326s (10 laps)
5 Racing Point (Perez), 1m20.391s (16 laps)
6 Toro Rosso (Albon), 1m20.524s (14 laps)
7 McLaren (Sainz), 1m20.609s (12 laps)
8 Haas (Grosjean), 1m20.766s
9 Renault (Ricciardo), 1m20.899s (10 laps)
10 Williams (Kubica), 1m22.035s (5 laps)

Comparing pace on the medium Pirellis is impossible, although Hamilton did complete six counting laps on the mediums at an average of 1m18.967s - significantly faster than the Mercedes pace on the softs.

Unfortunately, Vettel's medium run was aborted because of a front-left flatspot he picked up on his run on that set early in the session. "Not learning anything with these - box," he reported over the radio in the stadium session before heading in.

Red Bull, too, didn't offer enough to judge its pace on the mediums given Pierre Gasly crashed and Verstappen focused on the softs.

"I'm pretty sure Mercedes will be very strong, potentially Red Bull if the weather is bad. It's only Friday and we know that Mercedes is sometimes hiding a little bit until Saturday, so it's not going to be easy" Charles Leclerc

Of the big three teams, only Bottas did any work on the hards, setting a pace of 1m19.188s over five counting laps on the C2 Pirellis.

So, while the picture, such as it is, was encouraging for Ferrari there's every chance the soft pace will be irrelevant - and in this heat it will certainly be unrepresentative. All it does is confirm that, when it's hot, the Ferrari appears to work well.

With lower temperatures and rain forecast for the rest of the weekend, no matter how encouraging Friday was for Ferrari it could mean nothing. Charles Leclerc was quick to admit that the heat was in Ferrari's favour on Friday.

"It's working quite well with our car at the moment, so we need to understand what to do better when the conditions are cooler and to try and improve in these conditions," said Leclerc. "Any time it has been very warm this season we have been quick.

"The feeling is good because the high-fuel runs were good, which was quite difficult from the beginning of the season on our side. This is very positive and we need to keep working because I'm pretty sure Mercedes will be very strong tomorrow, potentially Red Bull [too] if the weather is bad. If it's raining we always know that they are very, very quick, so it's going to be challenging.

"It's only Friday and we know that Mercedes is sometimes hiding a little bit until Saturday, so it's not going to be easy."

On the balance of probability, Ferrari won't convert this into a victory on Sunday. If it hasn't happened on the previous four occasions, why should it be fifth time lucky?

A good summary from Leclerc. Perhaps the most relevant comparison is with the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, where the two Ferraris were first and second on Friday but grew gradually less competitive as the elongated qualifying session went on and the temperature dropped. This turned Ferrari from front-low lockout contenders to also-rans.

Vettel's pace was also encouraging for a driver who has been second-best of the Ferrari duo for the previous three race weekends. He admitted on Thursday to still not always being comfortable with the car, seemingly not happy with the rear being a little unstable while trying to counter understeer, but was upbeat on Friday. That's despite the fact Leclerc had a significant edge on him in the stadium section that clawed back much of Vettel's advantage over the rest of the lap.

Mercedes will certainly appreciate the coming cooler conditions, but made good progress despite the high temperatures.

"So far, it all seems to be in the right direction, but there is so much overheating on the tyres today that it is hard to know where we stand," said Mercedes trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin.

"In terms of pace, some runs were a bit better than others but our overall feeling is that in these temperatures, we're probably sitting a little bit behind Ferrari. We've got some useful learning from the sessions today and it's been a good test of the car, but we're expecting a big drop in temperature for the remainder of the weekend.

"With the cooler temperatures, there is a good chance of rain, which should keep things interesting."

On the balance of probability, Ferrari will not convert this performance into a victory on Sunday. After all, if it hasn't happened on the previous four occasions, why should it be fifth time lucky?

But it's never a bad thing to be quickest, even when that is on a Friday where lap times don't really matter. The Ferrari has worked well, the question is can it continue to do so in more normal - or, if the rain does come, damper - conditions expected for the rest of the weekend?

If it can, that's a sign of genuine progress. If not, it's more of the same.