The real change F1 must make to survive

During a recent 'Flat Chat' F1 Racing podcast, Stuart Codling commented on the photograph of Juan Manuel Fangio's 1949 Pau Grand Prix-winning Maserati 4CLT that hangs on my office wall. I explained that its sister car turned up at September's Goodwood Revival, the owner happy to let me give it the once over.

Looking at the technology of a front-engined grand prix car of 60 years ago, with its drum brakes and between-the-legs gearshift, set me wondering. What will the Formula 1 cars of 60 years hence look like?

This is a big ask when, at the time of writing, the combined powers in Formula 1 had not agreed on what we will be racing in 15 months' time.

F1 must be careful because the world is changing, and fast. Much of this, as 16-year old Swede Greta Thunberg has tried to point out, is due to climate change. She supports the science behind it. Perhaps the science now supports her.

In its headlong rush to meet demanding emissions targets and put the criminality of Dieselgate behind it, the automotive industry is producing electric cars faster than you can say 'carbon footprint'. This is one reason Mercedes Benz is paralleling its F1 commitment with an entry into Formula E, and a cursory glance at Renault or Honda's press cuttings shows the direction of travel is electric. Even Ferrari, with its 986bhp SF Stradale, has entered the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle arena.

How long before we see an all-electric Ferrari? The late Sergio Marchionne forecast it, so perhaps it will not take as long as the ghost of Enzo might think or want. The response to Porsche's new Taycan or the feats achieved by Volkswagen's IDR at Pikes Peak, the Nurburgring and on Goodwood's hillclimb have not gone unnoticed.

Most of all, legislation such as Norway's outright ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars in 2025, and the combined efforts of governments to reduce CO2 and NOX emissions in the face of growing climate activism, will see to it that the future is driven by electric motors.

As we head towards 2020, F1 ought to think hard about the next decade. It will be a time of profound change, and I for one would prefer the sport take a lead rather than follow.

Formula E, as we know, has 25-year exclusivity on FIA-sanctioned electric single-seater racing. This exclusivity could well be challenged sooner rather than later, for restrictive practices tend to be frowned upon by legislators.

Walking around Goodwood, reflecting on mid-20th century racing tech, I was struck by the diverse range. F1 used to thrive on innovation, yet today we are told the use of common or shared components is the future.

Meanwhile, tucked away at the Frankfurt Motorshow, BMW's X5-based i Hydrogen NEXT, set to enter limited production in 2022, illustrated a point made to me by a senior automotive executive who was also attending the Revival meeting.

"The internal combustion engine is dead," he said, "but batteries are only a bridge to the future. That future is powered by hydrogen fuel cells."

Faced with such change I believe F1's future lies in its past, when innovation took centre stage.

Define the amount of energy, in whatever form, that can be used. Allow car manufacturers and energy companies - of which F1 has many - the freedom to innovate and ensure that the sport remains relevant as opposed to becoming an anachronism.

The real change F1 can make to help the planet survive

Pat Symonds

Formula 1 is on the road to sustainability.

The term 'gas-guzzling' is synonymous with Formula 1 in the eyes of the popular press and yet F1 CEO Chase Carey has often spoken on the subject of sustainability. Indeed, at the recent Frankfurt motor show he stated that not only did F1 have to become sustainable in its own right, but also that it needs to promote sustainability.

This is a far-reaching subject and by the end of the year F1 intends to announce a comprehensive policy covering all aspects of the subject, but for now let's concentrate on the environmental issues.

Perhaps the biggest challenge facing engineers at present is how to avoid catastrophic climate change.

As with most problems there isn't a singular solution - and in this case there isn't even a single cause. But transport in general is a contributor to the generation of greenhouse gases and there's sufficient evidence in most people's minds that these gases are the cause of global warming.

Within our sport, like any global enterprise, transport is inevitable. Globalisation and the transport associated with it is fact, and a rose-tinted reversion to a local economy isn't an option. Instead we must embrace the need to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions - and apply the same principles of high-performance engineering to that problem as we do to making our cars go faster.

As well as relevant engineering that may emanate from F1, we can do more. Our global following is a perfect way to send out the right messages. While we have been rather good at the former we are woefully bad at the latter.

The road to net zero carbon emissions from transport is multivariate. Electrification of road transport is a partial solution, but it's not true to call it zero emission.

There are two reasons for this. The first is that the electricity used to charge a battery electric vehicle (BEV) has to be generated somehow and, while renewable sources of generation are expanding, there's still a carbon footprint associated with the production of electricity. In the UK, currently this averages around 200 grams of CO2 per kilowatt hour of electricity produced.

A typical mid-size BEV such as an eGolf is claimed to use 12.7 kilowatt hours of electricity per 100 kms. Ignoring any transmission and conversion losses, generating this electric power produces 25.4 grams of CO2 per kilometer. This is impressive compared with the 2021 target for conventional vehicles of 95 grams, but it's not zero.

If we make a complete life cycle analysis, the additional 3.5tonnes of CO2 generated in manufacturing the battery (over and above the CO2 produced in the manufacture of a conventional Golf) is equivalent to adding a further 35 grams of CO2 per km over a life of 100,000 kms.

None of this negates the value of electric vehicles but it does show there is a very real place for plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV). The F1 car is the ultimate PHEV, but how should F1 proceed to act as a catalyst for change?

There are two fundamental things we can do and in this and the next issue of F1 Racing we'll examine how F1 can contribute to solving this important problem.

To grasp how we may move internal combustion engines to a lower CO2 position, we need to understand that gasoline is essentially a compound made up of carbon and hydrogen atoms. The oil from an oil well has carbon atoms that were deposited millions of years ago, so if we burn them they combine with oxygen to produce CO2 that is essentially new to the planet. Before its release in that combustion process it had been locked up safely below ground; afterwards it joins the earth's atmosphere.

There are other methods of producing fuel that use much younger carbon and therefore, when considered over a period of a few years, don't add to the carbon budget. We learn in elementary biology how plants take in CO2 and release oxygen. The carbon is absorbed into their structure. We can use this wonder of nature to our advantage as a way of stripping the CO2 out of the air and recycling the carbon for further use as a fuel. Fermentation of the plant, or bio-mass as it's usually referred to, produces ethanol which is perfectly able to run an engine.

Biomass isn't the only source of carbon and one of the technology competitions of future years will be to source young carbon to produce synthetic fuels. This could come from plants, algae, waste, or even by directly capturing the carbon from the CO2 in the air and reusing it.

So, what is F1 doing? Regulations are still in development but the aim is to introduce 10% of advanced sustainable ethanol content to the fuel in 2021. This fuel must be second-generation - in other words it must be produced from either a non-bio carbon capture and re-use or, if from a bio source, it must be obtained from non-food-energy crops grown on marginal land unsuitable for food production. Waste products that have already fulfilled their food purpose can also be used.

In 2023, a further 10% of the fuel must have an advanced sustainable bio content although it doesn't necessarily have to be ethanol. There are some limitations on oxygen content and octane rating but this paves the way for further novel fuels which are not only ultra-low carbon, but may well be the forerunners of future fuels in transport genres other than light road vehicles.

In the next issue we'll examine how these new fuels can be exploited to further reduce F1's carbon footprint and, ultimately, that of other forms of transport.