The prediction that should enthrall and gall Mercedes' rivals

The coronavirus pandemic may have brought the 2020 Hungarian Grand Prix forward by two weeks compared to its original date, but it is still the high summer, and Formula 1 cars are lapping at the Hungaroring.

In fact, Friday's opening practice sessions for what is now the championship's third round (and not its 12th) took place in very similar conditions to last year's event, with a wet FP2 session meaning most of the long running took place in FP1 and, as a result, the pecking order is more masked than usual.

Nevertheless, with the usual caveats about fuel loads and engine modes applying, there were still trends to spot and data to analyse. But it seems the fortunes of this year's race winner may rest on a famously fluctuating prediction.

The headline takeaway from FP1 was Mercedes' immense pace. This isn't exactly a new development, but the fact Lewis Hamilton topped the times with a 1m16.003s on the hard tyres, which are estimated to be 0.3s slower per lap compared to the mediums and 0.8s to the softs, was something of a warning for the opposition.

Racing Point followed in the FP1 pecking order on the soft tyres, but Mercedes' expected closest rival, Red Bull, was 1.432s down in fifth in the team rankings (below) with Max Verstappen's 1m17.435s - also on softs. James Allison, Mercedes' technical director, put this down to Red Bull "clearly not running their engine at the same level of power that we had chosen for that session and the gap looks bigger than it truly is".

Overall pace in FP1

1 Mercedes Hamilton 1m16.003s
2 Racing Point Perez 0.527s
3 Renault Ricciardo 1.197s
4 Ferrari Vettel 1.235s
5 Red Bull Verstappen 1.432s
6 McLaren Norris 1.520s
7 Haas Magnussen 1.710s
8 Williams Latifi 1.966s
9 AlphaTauri Kvyat 2.289s
10 Alfa Romeo Giovinazzi 2.422s

After two races at the same high-speed track with the Red Bull Ring, the Hungaroring was set to be a better test of where the teams sit in terms of chassis performance due to its many slow-speed, tight corners.

There were suggestions that Red Bull was able to get closer to Mercedes in these slower segments on Friday, as it did in Austria, although the champion squad apparently led the way at the high-speed corners such as the rapid Turn 4 left just beyond the end of the first sector - although its suggested higher engine mode is again worth considering.

Overall, despite only completing one lap in FP2, Hamilton was pretty satisfied with his day's work.

"We got everything done that we needed to in the first session," he said. "The car felt good out there in FP1 although there was still some work to do, so we made some changes for the second session - then it rained, so we've still got learning to do tomorrow.

"Looking ahead to qualifying tomorrow, I think it is going to be a lot closer as it's not such a power-dependent circuit. I'm hoping for a tighter pack, it'd be great to see the Renaults doing well, the McLarens are doing a fantastic job, as are the Racing Points - it's really exciting to see. We also expect Red Bull to be strong, so I anticipate a tough battle with them."

"Today things went better than we expected. We arrived here with basically the same car we had in Austria but it seems to suit this track better, which is good to see" Charles Leclerc

On Red Bull, the team certainly seemed to make a step through its second home race, and was intrigued to see how it would go against Mercedes with the power factor less dominant. Unfortunately, Verstappen feels the team has "a lot of work to do" saying Red Bull is struggling with "just balance, overall" in an interview for Sky.

His team-mate Alex Albon, who finished FP1 down in 13th place, opened up a little more in his equivalent post-practice TV interview, saying the problems were "just more predictability than anything else".

"It's not one corner and it's not a big margin in a specific place," he added. "It's just bits everywhere. So yeah, the car is not quite what we want and [we] just have to do some work to find out what's going on. There's definitely been places like in [Austria] race two we made a big improvement and them coming here it just hasn't followed through as nice as we expected."

Racing Point, now surely an ever-present problem for the frontrunners behind Mercedes given its controversial pace in the opening races, should again end Friday feeling pleased. Sergio Perez and Lance Stroll were the only drivers (apart from Valtteri Bottas) to get within a second of Hamilton's best time in FP1, which shows the potential of its package.

PLUS: Why misfortune has masked Racing Point's dark horse

In what little long running did take place on the soft tyre, Stroll completed the longest run of any driver on 15 laps. But heavy degradation as his stint wore on impacted his laptime average, which will likely be a factor to consider for the opening race stint.

The much-mired Ferrari squad again looks to be enveloped in a tight midfield pack, with the SF1000 cars running in the same specification as they did in the Styrian GP that ended so swiftly for the red team. Just 0.323s covered Renault, Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren in the best of the FP1 times.

Ferrari's updated parts were fully repaired after the embarrassing crash between the team's two cars last time out, and that meant it was finally able to log some much-need comparison data. The team even completed the second most laps in FP2 (22 to Alfa Romeo's 25) because, per Sebastian Vettel, "after the weaknesses we showed last week [in the Styrian GP's wet qualifying], we need to understand the car a bit better".

"Today things went better than we expected," assessed Charles Leclerc. "We arrived here with basically the same car we had in Austria but it seems to suit this track better, which is good to see. There are fewer straights here compared to the last race venue and here, we are quick around the corners.

"This afternoon, in the rain, we struggled a bit as we were trying out a few things and I wasn't very happy as I was lacking a bit of confidence in the wet, but we've seen some positive signs this morning."

PLUS: The honest but damning verdict on Ferrari's 2020 form

In the pack behind the usual midfield leaders, Haas made it through FP1 without problems, which team boss Gunther Steiner said was "progress from the last two races", and its drivers felt positive about a set-up step the team feels it has made. At Williams, Nicholas Latifi found a good rhythm early on to "set a relatively competitive time compared to everybody else" before the team opted not to set a time in FP2 to protect its cars.

AlphaTauri and Alfa Romeo brought up the rear of the FP1 pecking order. At AlphaTauri, a power unit problem cost Pierre Gasly all of FP1 and therefore a whole session of dry running (although a few spots of rain were felt in the opening 90-minutes) and he had to have new control electronics fitted to his car as a result. Kimi Raikkonen felt Alfa was "obviously still a bit far off from where we'd like to be" and needing to "work hard tonight, crunch all the data".

Only 13 cars set laps in FP2, with just 109 laps completed in total. The reason why such little running took place is related to a key prediction that could well impact the rest of the weekend.

Herein lies the tough reality for Mercedes' rivals when it comes to the possibility of beating it in the mixed conditions predicted over the rest of the weekend: F1 is just a week on from Hamilton delivering a wet-weather masterclass against the clock

It is thought that there is a 40% chance of unsettled weather impacting both qualifying and the race - with a far from certain forecast for light rain in FP2 ending with the entire session taking place on wet-weather rubber, such was the dousing that took place. Plus, the cool temperatures in Hungary meant the track did not dry up quickly even when not being topped up by fresh rain. The teams were therefore forced to conserve their wet weather tyres, just in case they need them to get through all three qualifying segments and the race too.

If rain does affect those sessions, it could have several implications.

First of all, Racing Point's drivers underwhelmed in the Styrian GP wet qualifying session despite the clear pace in the RP20. To counter this, the team did 11 laps in FP2, which Stroll said was to "improve our understanding of the car in the wet". Perez felt that resulted in "improvements in wet conditions compared to Austria", so that's worth bearing in mind when it comes to the potential for a mixed-up grid being formed on Saturday.

Red Bull has shown, particularly in the opening round, that it can close the gap to Mercedes through its post-practice data analysis and if it was running in FP1 with the Honda power unit turned down compared to its rival then the gap should close - but Mercedes' own engine output could of course go upwards too.

And herein lies the tough reality for Mercedes' rivals when it comes to the possibility of beating it in the mixed conditions predicted over the rest of the weekend: F1 is just a week on from Hamilton delivering a wet-weather masterclass against the clock and this weekend he is racing on a track where he has already triumphed seven times...