The factors for and against a Red Bull upset in F1’s Monaco GP

Formula 1 returns this weekend after its shock post-Miami hiatus following the cancellation of the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix. The cars and paddock facilities were extracted from the sodden Imola circuit in the days following that event’s cancellation, as the Santerno river’s frothing, muddy, maximum height finally subsided.

There will be time to reflect on the situation and chances to ask what more can be done to help the region of north-eastern Italy as this weekend’s Monaco event gets underway. Before too long, attention will turn to the first on-track F1 action in three weeks.

In the face of such tragedy, much as it was during the COVID-19 pandemic, motorsport can provide delightful escapism – as it does for so many even in normal times. And so, the story of F1 2023 returns. But, in Monaco, might it contain the first real twist of the season?

After all, were it not for just a few small elements being different in the two most recent editions held past 2020’s pandemic-enforced break, then Red Bull would be reflecting on just one win in principality state in the last 10 years. And that’d be with the team always going very well here, even during the years of Mercedes’ dominance. This serves to illustrate the point that this weekend, F1’s latest leading team is now facing the biggest challenge to its perfect start so far.

Although unlikely to impinge on the Monaco event to anywhere near the same extent as last week in Italy, rain is always a possibility in the bizarre microclimate of the mountain-ringed city. In 2022, its sudden arrival had the teams scrambling to bring wet tyres to the grid, where the FIA’s starting systems then failed in the deluge and contributed to the long delay, with standing starts no longer possible.

While the early forecasts suggest precipitation could indeed shake up the pecking order, if the 'sunny place for shady people' does stay dry throughout the weekend, there might yet be other reasons to suspect one of Red Bulls rivals could cause an upset.

Rain is always a possibility in the bizarre micro-climate of the mountain-ringed city

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Running through it all is the tight and twisty nature of the Monaco street track layout, and we should expect to hear much discussion about the size of modern F1 machinery is a major deterrent to racing here. While that is accurate, it also minimises the impact of the truly unique and therefore wonderful Monaco challenge – where precision and bravery, particularly in qualifying, are rewarded even more than usual in F1’s other dazzling shows.

Charles Leclerc enters his fifth Monaco F1 weekend still searching for a first podium on home soil - his barren spell extending to when he first raced on his local streets in F2 in 2017. But his form around the 2.1-mile track in the last two years, plus his twin Baku poles this season, elevate him to a pole position favourite.

The Ferrari SF-23, for all its struggles with top-end speed and in-race tyre management, performed better than Red Bull’s RB19 on traction in both Baku and Miami – per the GPS data logged by the cars in qualifying at those events. Monaco’s layout essentially negates Red Bull’s straight-line speed and DRS prowess, which swings things back towards Ferrari’s downforce-heavy package.

Monaco’s layout essentially negates Red Bull’s straight-line speed and DRS prowess, which swings things back towards Ferrari’s downforce-heavy package

Ferrari’s recent cars, even through the switch to ground-effect rules for 2022, have generally ridden the many bumps and kerbs the drivers must traverse and launch off in Monaco well. Carlos Sainz acknowledged: “We’ve always been good in Monaco,” when Autosport asked if any of the current calendar run might suit the Scuderia even amongst its early 2023 struggles back in Australia.

And, looking back to recent historical examples again, Leclerc took Monaco pole in 2021 while running with an even bigger season average deficit to the frontrunners (0.891s then vs 0.275s now, using the Supertimes metric) than Ferrari faces in 2023 against Red Bull.

How he secured that result, however, also highlights why Leclerc can’t even be considered a certain spot as a pre-Monaco favourite. After all, he crashed hard at the second part of the Swimming Pool and unspotted driveshaft hub wheel damage would heartbreakingly force his absence from pole the next day, easing Max Verstappen’s path to a crushing win.

Leclerc’s three crashes across the five events so far in 2023 at the very least need to be banished from the mind of F1’s most exciting qualifier. While, should it need to think on its feet to make an in-race gain in a close event, Ferrari must hope its work to improve on strategy since its 2022 Monaco disaster has paid off.

Leclerc's 2021 crash highlights why he can’t even be considered a certain spot as a pre-Monaco favourite

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

At least the team won’t have to evaluate the impact and requirements of its major rear suspension upgrade, which had been planned to arrive for Imola and will now debut in Spain. Matching Red Bull’s poised and stable platform would grant Ferrari a significant performance boost, while also set to bolster its coming aero updates. But for this weekend at least it just needs to nail the requirements of the legendary street track.

Mercedes has shown flashes of pace and promise in Red Bull’s wake so far in 2023, but finally, the first steps of its package overhaul are set to debut – having naturally been delayed from their expected Imola arrival. Although Monaco is one of the worst tracks to assess the true impact of new aero surfaces, Mercedes isn’t keen to waste any more time with the W13 evolution design of its current challenger.

Getting the newly-styled W14 working on a track where its predecessor’s severe ride problems (in addition to porpoising) were revealed a year ago will be the main for focus for Lewis Hamilton and George Russell.

Perhaps, then, Red Bull will be more preoccupied with the challenge of the other driver from the frontrunners to have reached the podium so far in 2023. The one who has done so nearly as much as Verstappen and level with Sergio Perez: Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso. The Spaniard has shown excellent braking precision and time gains as a result even against the Red Bull drivers in the early rounds, which will be a handy asset in Monaco. 

Alonso is yet to qualify higher than third when circumstances have not eliminated the usual suspects ahead in Verstappen and Leclerc

So too will Alonso’s own brilliance – recalling here his tactic to tour slowly to avoid graining his slicks in the second half 2022 event that meant he was able to drop Hamilton late on. Therefore, should he get amongst Verstappen and Perez in qualifying this weekend, expect something similarly craft coming in a bid to climb even further up the podium than the four thirds he has managed so far.

Resting against this expectation is Alonso’s 2022 Monaco Q3 shunt, where he was driving with broken bones in both hands following his Melbourne Q3 crash, plus his form against the clock so far this year. Alonso is yet to qualify higher than third when circumstances have not eliminated the usual suspects ahead in Verstappen and Leclerc. And starting there in a dry race around Monaco would not be a victory omen.

Even with all this understood, those still come out strongest for Red Bull heading into the weekend. Although its car’s straight-line potency is masked in Monaco, it remains the class of the field.

Alonso could again prove to be Red Bull's biggest challenge on a street track, as in Jeddah

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

But, for the neutral and the partisan camps of its two drivers, there is hope that even if Verstappen and Perez lock out the front row, then the latter’s street track prowess might lead to him at least making a fight of it again after that major Miami defeat.

There are just two street circuits remaining on the 2023 schedule and F1 is soon to arrive at the high-speed layouts where Perez’s understeer skills – so valuable in precisely positioning a car basically on the barrier apexes in somewhere such as Monaco – aren’t required.

PLUS: The Verstappen/Red Bull dynamic that shows the scale of Perez's F1 title task

So, if it is to be another intra-Red Bull fight after all, for Perez’s weakened title hopes he needs to repeat his 2022 Monaco magic and come away with an important blow against Verstappen.

Perez needs to repeat his 2022 Monaco magic to boost his title hopes

Photo by: Erik Junius