How big a blow is Newey's exit to Red Bull?

A fatal blow to Red Bull’s Formula 1 ambitions or, to steal a phrase from the famous Monty Python Black Knight sketch, nothing more than a flesh wound?

Those are the two opposing views about the impact that Adrian Newey’s departure at the start of next year will have on F1’s current world champion squad as it prepares for the all-new rules era from 2026 without its design genius.

On one side, it is easy to think that Newey’s exit from Red Bull is a seismic event for the squad that has benefitted so much from his design efforts. Having been involved throughout all of Red Bull’s glory years, and clearly remaining hugely influential in helping guide the team about what it should and shouldn’t do with its 2022 ground effect concept from the off, it would be foolish to think that losing him is something that can be simply brushed off as run of the mill.

While Newey was not full-time on its F1 efforts (contracted to just 150 days per year for all his Milton Keynes projects as part of his chief technical officer role), he was able to have a global view over everything – offering guidance in critical areas and steadying the ship in times of trouble. There is certainly no doubt that Newey’s lessons from the previous ground effect era, where he discovered the risks of porpoising, were influential in getting Red Bull off on the right foot when it came to ensuring it didn’t go down the route that many others team initially did in 2022 – of having a flexible floor that they believed would better seal airflow and deliver even more downforce.

Newey knew that, due to the bouncing phenomenon, this was a no-go – and making sure the floor was super stiff and the ride control clinically managed was a much better direction to head in. Three years into the new rules set, his advice has proven to be spot on.

But equally, it would be wrong to suggest that all of Red Bull’s success in the current rules era is down to Newey.

In technical director Pierre Wache, Red Bull has perhaps one of the best under-the-radar tech chiefs in the pitlane – as he is someone who generally stays away from the media spotlight. The Frenchman just quietly gets on with it, diligently working away in the garages but often seen sharing paddock conversations as he pops out the back for a drag on his vape.

Wache has often stayed away from the spotlight when credit has been loaded on to Newey for Red Bull's success

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Having helped pull together the Red Bull package and manage the design team over recent years, Wache has helped harness both his and Newey’s input to mould the aerodynamic and mechanical aspects of the car that have made the team so dominant recently.

Rival teams have long known how good Wache is and there have been attempts over recent months, amid the fallout of the power battle going on inside the squad since early February, to lure him away. That is why, having agreed a contract extension with Red Bull last winter, it is understood further improved terms were signed off on the eve of the season to ensure that Wache was completely locked down.

While Wache and his team will no longer be able to call on those moments when Newey’s assistance was much-needed, equally his departure will open up a new era at the squad where there will be clearer lines of responsibility and credit going where it is due for all that is going on.

Alongside the public flashpoints of the occasional Horner comments about him, Newey has been unhappy about certain aspects of the team for a while

Red Bull team principal Christian Horner is known to have faced a few headaches over the years juggling the need to ensure that both Newey and Wache were given the right weighting of merit for all they did at the team. Sometimes, when Horner said one thing to support one of them, that would trigger some kick back from the other who felt their role was being under played.

Nothing showed this more than the mini controversy that was kicked off last year when Horner said Newey was replaceable. Those comments did not go down well in the Newey camp, with his wife Amanda labelling them as ‘hogwash’ when they appeared.

While the recent civil war inside Red Bull earlier this year did not sit well with Newey and played a part in the timing of his decision to quit now, equally his departure has been a long-time coming. Alongside the public flashpoints of the occasional Horner comments about him, Newey has been unhappy about certain aspects of the team for a while.

He is not a fan of needless internal politics, and it is believed that he has sometimes perhaps felt undervalued for his contribution - and that others within the organisation were living off the success that he had created for them.

Recent problems inside the Red Bull camp have worn at Newey's relationships within the team

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

It is hard to be definitive in judging the scale of the blow that Red Bull will face from Newey’s departure right now, and it may even be a few years before we get our answer. The current RB20 platform looks strong enough to carry momentum through static regulations into 2025, but there is the looming challenge of the all-new rules in 2026 that are fast approaching and will put huge demands on Red Bull’s current technical team.

Could Newey’s exit also be the trigger for a wider exodus that further shakes things up? Could it influence Max Verstappen’s future? Could it make other senior Red Bull staff feel that now is the right time for them to seek opportunities elsewhere?

Judging Newey’s influence is also not just about Red Bull, because there is the knock-on effect of what he does next having an impact. It’s one thing Red Bull losing Newey and him heading off to sail a yacht around the world; it’s another having one of Red Bull’s chief rivals grabbing him and benefitting from all his brilliance.

All indications point to him wanting to take some time to decide where he goes – and while Ferrari boss Fred Vasseur is understood to have had face-to-face talks with him, it does not look like a deal is done yet.

But his exit timetable of next spring is quite significant because it means, if he does land another job, he will be arriving at a team that could already be eight or nine months into aero development of their 2026 cars. It’s not ideal, and Newey will be slightly out of the loop after being taken off technical matters at Red Bull until he departs, but equally it’s not too late for him to deliver some critical turnarounds that could help his new employers.

Speaking this week, one rival team principal suggested that the manner of Newey’s exit and him being allowed to join a rival while the 2026 cars were being framed was like Red Bull signing its own death warrant.

While it seemed like a good compromise deal for both Red Bull and Newey, in F1 there often isn’t much room for charity and sentiment.

What's next for Newey? Aston Martin and Ferrari are both interested in his services, but could he step away from F1 entirely?

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Just rewind back to then McLaren team principal Martin Whitmarsh’s doing the ‘right thing’ and approving Brawn GP getting a Mercedes customer engine deal for 2009 when he could easily have been ruthless and blocked it. That opened the door to Brawn GP’s title success, which eventually morphed into it becoming the Mercedes works team and the dominant force in F1 during the early turbo hybrid era – as McLaren lost its works status and entered the wilderness for years.

“It would be an unmitigated disaster for Red Bull if Adrian was let go early to join a competitor,” said the team boss. “Christian would look like a complete fool. Just as Whitmarsh did at McLaren when he handed Brawn the keys to Mercedes, which kickstarted their years of dominance in F1.”

The verdict on fatal blow or flesh wound will not really be known until the start of 2026, and then much will depend on what Newey does next

In public, Red Bull is guaranteed to put a brave face on things and insist this is the right time for Newey to go as the relationship had naturally reached its end and the organisation is strong enough to cope without him. Indeed, its success is almost sure to continue with the RB20, and its tech team is strong enough to follow things through with its RB21 for 2025. So the reality is that the verdict on fatal blow or flesh wound will not really be known until the start of 2026, and then much will depend on what Newey does next.

Will Newey again prove to have been the magic ingredient that is helping his new employers to yet more title glory and prove how big a loss he has been to Red Bull, or will he have the last laugh in watching it all unfold as he enjoys his retirement?

Newey will begin his long goodbye to Red Bull in Miami this weekend

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images