The epic championship battle Ferrari stumbles have robbed us of

Charles Leclerc’s emotions of disbelief and self-anger at the error that put him out of the French Grand Prix were evident from his body language as he climbed out of his stricken Ferrari.

As he smacked the top of his halo and looked to the skies seeking answers for why he had made yet another mistake, there was little doubt about the significance of the moment in the world championship battle. Just as his victory in the Austrian Grand Prix had opened a glimmer of hope that he could claw his way back against Max Verstappen after a troubled spell, the latest points swing to his Dutch rival was clearly a hammer blow to his 2022 ambitions.

While team boss Mattia Binotto insisted that he couldn’t care and didn’t know what the points gap was – as the focus was just on winning the final 10 races of the year – for the rest of the world, that 63 points gap now at the head of the standings is nothing trivial.

After many years of an ultra close contest at the front of the field, Verstappen’s advantage means the chances are there of this year’s world title being wrapped up pretty early. And, for most neutral observers who just want the world championship to go to the final race rather than caring too much about who wins it, that is a shame of the greatest order because, in competitive terms, this year’s title battle has been intensely close.

Indeed, in pure performance comparisons between Ferrari and Red Bull, it has been one of the most variable and fascinating contests that we have had for a while. Ferrari certainly started in front, but a swift recovery from Red Bull hauled Verstappen back in to contention. Then, the different characteristics of the two cars – especially the straightline speed advantage of the RB18 – always made Sundays exciting.

Even Paul Ricard kept up that trend, with Leclerc and Verstappen separated by very little. And for all the indications that perhaps the Red Bull was suffering worse with its tyre degradation, the Milton Keynes squad was not convinced that it was an automatic win for its rival.

One of the themes of 2022 has been that speed and potential have perhaps not been the most important factors when it has comes to the championship battle. Instead, reliability and mistakes have played far more of a role in how the fortunes have swung between Verstappen and Leclerc.

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Charles Leclerc, Ferrari F1-75, after crashing out of the lead at Le Beausset

Photo by: Carl Bingham / Motorsport Images

In the first phase of the campaign, from Bahrain through Saudi and into Australia, it seemed that Ferrari could do little wrong, and it was Red Bull who was going to let down Verstappen.

Leclerc’s two wins from three races, allied to Verstappen’s fuel pump problem in Bahrain and fuel leak triggered retirement in Australia, left the world title race very one-sided. Charles Leclerc was on 71 and Verstappen on 25 – a whopping 46 points between them.

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Fast forward to now, and it is Ferrari mistakes, rather than lack of speed, that have handed Verstappen much of his best success.

Strategy errors from Ferrari when Leclerc was leading in Monaco and Silverstone, allied to engine failures in Spain and Baku, all proved hugely costly in delivering a 109 point swing to Verstappen. But just imagine we had had a season where both Red Bull and Ferrari had been as bulletproof as teams in the past, and there weren’t the mistakes we’ve seen. What kind of championship battle would be have right now?

Speed and potential have perhaps not been the most important factors when it has comes to the championship battle though. Instead, reliability and mistakes have arguably played far more of a role

When you pore back over the season so far, there are some races that have played out in ways where external factors did not hugely influence the final result, so things would stay the same. Verstappen’s wins in Saudi Arabia, Imola, Miami and Canada, plus Leclerc’s success in Austria, would all probably stand as they played out without shock influences coming in to play. But it’s when you start slotting in alternative scenarios, where Leclerc isn’t stymied by engine failures, strategy errors or his own mistakes, that things get very interesting.

If Leclerc’s season had played out in a perfect way, and he had charged to victories that were potentially on the cards in Spain, Monaco, Baku, Silverstone and France, then the world championship picture changes a lot.

If you add in the extra 75 points from DNFs to wins in Spain, Baku and France, plus the 26 extra points for a better strategy in Monaco and Silverstone, then that would leave him with an extra 101 points – bringing his total up to 271. That’s more than even Verstappen has at the moment with his 233 point tally.

While Verstappen has earned his title lead, there's no doubt Ferrari's troubles have helped him out

Photo by: Carl Bingham / Motorsport Images

However, some of Leclerc’s success would have pushed his Dutch rival down the order – so taking off the theoretical lost positions, Verstappen would drop to 208. That means, by a strange quirk of fate, if Leclerc’s season had been perfect, then he would now be ahead of Verstappen by the same 63 points margin as his rival is ahead of him now!

However, it would be unfair to come up with a scenario where all of Ferraris errors are wiped away and Red Bull still pays the prices for its slip ups.

So if Leclerc is to get his extra points for his DNFs and lost positions, then Verstappen is owed extra points for Bahrain and Australia. On both occasions he would most likely have finished second – earning him 36 points to bolster his tally to 244.

If both teams had had perfect weekends based on the form they showed, then the current tally would be 271 for Leclerc and 244 for Verstappen. But the reality is that teams don’t get it perfectly all the time, so it would be unrealistic to have expected everything to have gone Leclerc’s way.

Any of what we can call the 32-pointers (Leclerc going from a DNF to a win, and Verstappen moving from 1st to 2nd) could have played out as they did. One of the engine failures in Spain or Baku, or Leclerc still spinning off in France, and the 271 v 244 swings around to become Verstappen on 251 and Leclerc on 246.

Or what if Ferrari got its engine right but still made the strategy errors?

Monaco playing out the way it did would leave Leclerc on 258 and Verstappen on 247. Add Silverstone to the mix too and Leclerc would drop to 245 – imagine how intense things would be then! And then that’s before we think about how fastest lap points would have been ever more important to chase…

While the above is a fun bit of theory, and we can massage the points to say what we want, what it does show is that the F1 2022 championship battle really could have been – indeed should have been – much closer than it is.

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari F1-75, exits his car after crashing out at Le Beausset

Photo by: Carl Bingham / Motorsport Images