The data revealing where Mercedes is really losing out

Since the August break, Ferrari has had a clear one-lap pace advantage. Charles Leclerc's fourth consecutive pole position in Russia again showed he has that extra commitment to wringing the car's neck on new tyres.

As we all know, Lewis Hamilton is no slouch on a qualifying lap and if he's beaten it's either because someone else has done a hugely impressive lap, or is driving a chassis/engine combination that's simply better. This is what we've seen of late.

In the races Mercedes and Ferrari are much of a muchness, with the silver cars often having the edge in terms of tyre degradation, and there will be reasons for that.

Ferrari's latest developments, introduced at the Singapore Grand Prix, seem to give the car a better balance on new tyres for that one all-out lap. Mercedes seems to be on much more of a knife-edge in qualifying and the car takes a bit of hanging onto.

But once in a race, when the tyres have lost their peak grip, and the drivers aren't so aggressive, the Mercedes settles down.

Remember, in the race the lap times are for several reasons around 5% slower than qualifying and that is not taking into account the extra fuel load, and the lifting and coasting to save brakes and fuel, reduced throttle aggression to save the rear tyres, and reduced power from the engine.

It all means the car is nowhere near as highly loaded. Everyone keeps on about how Ferrari is a rocketship on the straights, but that's not the complete story.

To try to understand where Ferrari and Mercedes stand, I analysed their performances at Sochi in 2018 and '19. In 2018, it was Valtteri Bottas on pole in the Mercedes compared to Sebastian Vettel, who was the fastest Ferrari driver a year ago.

In 2019, it was Leclerc on pole for Ferrari ahead of Hamilton. To compare their performance I have looked at the speed traps and section times for their ideal lap from qualifying.

I have used the same speed to start the lap as ending it, using the speed traps at the start of the lap and before Turn 2 as an extra data point.

At the start of the lap, which is shortly after the final corner, there is no major difference in speed, although the 2km/h gap between Leclerc and Hamilton will carry all the way down the straight. It probably comes from how Ferrari deploys its battery energy or superior traction on corner exit.

The sector-one time is more enlightening. Both chassis in 2018 and Ferrari's in 2019 have done more or less the same time, but the Mercedes in 2019 has lost 0.5 seconds in comparison to itself in 2018. The speed at the end of sector one - after the endless right-hander of Turn 3, is again alarming.

Both chassis have lost speed compared to 2018, Ferrari 2km/h and Mercedes 6km/h. While 2km/h won't make a difference, and could simply be wind direction, 6km/h will have a significant impact.

Sector two is a similar story to the first. Ferrari made up a little bit of ground compared to its 2018 performance, although still not reaching the level that Bottas was at in 2018. But Mercedes has again lost ground, three tenths compared to last year - a negative that needs to be made up elsewhere.

Speeds at the end of sector two have more or less stood still from 2018. Both are 1km/h slower than a year ago, so no big deal for either team, other than the Mercedes is still 4km/h slower than the Ferrari on both occasions.

In sector three, Hamilton is just that little bit faster than Bottas, while Leclerc is a little faster than Vettel from last year. So it's tit for tat.

I can't see anything that would make me feel that Ferrari has any exceptional performance as far as power unit performance or top speed is concerned

For completeness, I have assigned the same speed for ending the lap as starting it, so nothing to add there.

As for the main speed trap at Sochi, which is on the front straight just before Turn 2, the actual speed is very similar to the end of sector two, which is at the end of the back straight just before Turn 13.

Ferrari was 3km/h and Mercedes 4km/h slower than last year. Again, that's a deficit for both that is very similar and could just be down to the wind direction.

One other point to make is that in 2019 the two works Mercedes cars are the slowest Mercedes-engined cars through both of the fastest speed traps.

This is not a great advert for the efficiency of the overall aerodynamic package, even though its cars clearly have more downforce than Racing Point and Williams.

Drag versus power is what ends up giving you the top speed, so with the package it has, if Mercedes elected to reduce its drag to give it something like a 5km/h improvement in top speed, it would probably have to reduce its downforce level by something like 45kg.

With that, it would end up losing braking and cornering potential so it's all a compromise that gets optimised from your simulation tools. It's really down to your level of budget. More money allows you to have more people, which gives you more ideas and more research.

This all means that Mercedes 'should' have more downforce than Racing Point or Williams but, within that research, you have to stay within the drag levels that each circuit requires.

You can't just keep piling on downforce because the drag levels will also increase in line with the efficiency of your car, and no matter what it shouldn't be the slowest of the cars using its power unit.

Sochi was actually the worst Mercedes qualifying performance of the season with a deficit of 0.439% to the front. Austria was its second-worst at 0.411%, again to Ferrari. Compared to Sochi 2018, Mercedes has simply lost a lot of performance in sector one and less, but still a loss, in sector two.

It has stood still in sector three as far as speed is concerned. I can't see anything that would make me feel that Ferrari has any exceptional performance as far as power unit performance or top speed is concerned.

As I said earlier, perhaps it simply deploys the electrically-harnessed energy more efficiently, but Mercedes really does need to look at the overall efficiency of its aerodynamic package. It also needs to get on with the job and improve its performance on new tyres for that critical one lap in qualifying.

Make the car less nervous and it will give the drivers more confidence to carry more speed into the corner. Since the German GP upgrade package, it seems to have become a harder car to get the best out of in qualifying.

What we can say about Mercedes is that the team made the most of what it had on Sunday. The Sochi race was far from boring, given some of the radio communication going on, and although Ferrari blew it in the end, I have to say I completely agree with the strategy for the start.

We might just find out which chassis is on top of the pile for these last few races of 2019 and this could give us an indication of how 2020 is going to unfold

Ferrari knew and fully expected that a car that wasn't on pole would benefit from the tow and probably lead into, or at worst, out of Turn 2, so the strategy was to make sure that it was a red car and that Leclerc and Vettel didn't fight each other and risk losing out to Mercedes.

They pulled it off very well and, combined with both Ferraris making good starts, had a commanding 1-2 on the first lap when the safety car came out. When the safety car came in, both Ferraris did what was expected of them and opened up a gap to the Mercedes cars, who were third and fourth once Bottas had passed Carlos Sainz Jr.

Then it turned into a circus. Obviously, the plan was for Leclerc to take the position back from Vettel but, other than being close enough for the first four or five laps, Vettel had the quicker car and when he got the radio call he didn't think giving up his lead to his team-mate was such a good idea. Once again, I agree.

Bringing in team strategy in the first 10 laps of a 53-lap race is way too early, and Vettel would have had to give away at least a couple of seconds to allow this to happen. This could have meant that Hamilton would be breathing down their necks.

By lap nine, Ferrari had changed its mind and told Vettel to keep his head down and get on with it. Leclerc was promised a position change later in the race, but his time spent on the radio button in conversation with his team would have been better used focusing on the job in hand.

In the end, Leclerc pitted on lap 22 and fitted the mediums. Vettel pitted four laps later, but during those laps he lost enough time and Leclerc gained enough to mean that Leclerc was now ahead.

The only problem was that both Mercedes cars on their medium tyres stayed out and were now running first and second, still to stop but able to run quite a lot longer on these harder compound tyres.

Then it all went wrong for Ferrari. On lap 27, Vettel pulled over and stopped with what was an MGU-K problem and during his radio call to the team he requested that F1 bring back the old noisy V12s. We can only dream as far as that's concerned!

Vettel was forced to park the car in a dangerous place and this brought out a VSC, which meant drivers on the track have to reduce their speed, whereas in the pits you don't have to. So Hamilton was able to pit and fit the soft tyre and keep the lead.

Ferrari then pitted Leclerc again to switch to softs in the hope that he could regain the second place he lost to Bottas and then attack Hamilton. Unfortunately, it was not to be. He just couldn't follow Bottas close enough for long enough to make use of the Ferrari's 'jet-powered', as Hamilton called it, top speed.

Even with the use of DRS, Leclerc wasn't in a position to overtake. So from what initially looked like another Ferrari 1-2, as in Singapore, it ended up with a solitary third and another reliability problem.

Mercedes took another step closer to the title with another 1-2. The championship fights are now more or less done and dusted, with Mercedes for the sixth time in succession claiming both.

But it's just under two weeks to Suzuka, which is a real drivers' circuit. Fast and flowing and requiring total commitment and confidence in the car and your talent, it's a great track.

With very little at stake, other than race wins, we might just find out which chassis is on top of the pile for these last few races of 2019. Given we have stable regulations, this could give us an indication of how 2020 is going to unfold. Just after that, 31 October is a big day in more ways than one.

First of all, it's Brexit D-Day for the United Kingdom, but it's also the day the F1 technical regulations - illustrated below with Autosport's own concept mock-up - are supposed to be signed off for 2021. From where I'm sitting, I see neither being achieved.