The curveball that could cause an unpredictable Hungarian race

Mercedes headed into the Hungarian Grand Prix weekend as the favourite, logically so because the W10 typically excels on the slower corners that predominate at the twisty Hungaroring, despite the fact that Ferrari and Red Bull have become increasingly strong of late.

But Friday's rain-affected practice sessions have thrown an additional curveball into the mix.

The major upgrade Mercedes introduced at Hockenheim last weekend, featuring new front- and rear-wing endplates, and a number of tweaks to the complex bargeboard/turning vane assembly, has broadly worked as hoped. But Mercedes has understandably yet to master the car in its adjusted trim. So, a compromised run through Friday practice won't have helped.

"Usually with updates, they take several races for you to truly [understand them]," said Lewis Hamilton on Thursday. "You don't just put them on and they work perfectly, you're always trying to fine-tune them. So, coming into this weekend, we'll already have a better understanding and be able to utilise them better, and the same thing will be [the case] for the following weekend."

Dry conditions are helpful for that kind of progress, but although plenty of work was done during FP1, which did feature rain but had also plenty of windows when it was dry, all but the first 22 minutes of the afternoon session (six of which were under red flag conditions thanks to Alex Albon's crash), were compromised by rain.

This meant that the majority of the fastest times of the day - with a few exceptions - were set in FP1. And it painted a positive picture for Mercedes.

Single-lap pace

1 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m17.233
2 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m17.398s
3 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m17.399s
4 Haas (Magnussen), 1m17.942s
5 Renault (Hulkenberg), 1m18.417s
6 Alfa Romeo (Raikkonen), 1m18.682s
7 McLaren (Sainz), 1m18.702s
8 Toro Rosso (Kvyat), 1m18.957s
9 Racing Point (Perez), 1m19.325s
10 Williams (Russell), 1m19.649s

Hamilton, who described himself as "a million times better" after illness blunted his Hockenheim weekend to the point where he was finding it difficult to bring himself to get in the car for Friday practice, was upbeat despite the bad weather in FP2.

"Straight from the get-go, the balance was quite nice, we made some changes over the break and unfortunately we didn't really get to test it," he said.

"I was surprised this morning to see that we were close to the Red Bulls and the Ferraris, so hopefully that remains the same during the weekend."

What could have been a problematic day for Mercedes seemed to end positively

With few cars running during the middle stages of FP2, most of the intermediate running was completed in the closing stages. During this phase, Bottas set the fastest time, just under two-tenths faster than Verstappen, with Magnussen setting a strong pace for Haas.

While the below classification is to be taken with a pinch of salt given varying track conditions, not to mention the fact some drivers barely ran - notably Hamilton - it at least gives a picture of who was doing what during the intermediate running.

Intermediate pace

1 Bottas, 1m32.471s
2 Verstappen, 1m32.659s
3 Magnussen, 1m32.994
4 Ricciardo, 1m33.235s
5 Leclerc, 1m33.324s
6 Grosjean, 1m33.551s
7 Gasly, 1m33.780s
8 Hulkenberg, 1m33.993s
9 Sainz, 1m34.194s
10 Vettel, 1m34.240s
11 Giovinazzi, 1m34.421s
12 Kvyat, 1m34.464s
13 Stroll, 1m35.091s
14 Perez, 1m35.628s
15 Raikkonen, 1m36.777s
16 Hamilton, 1m37.058s
17 Russell, 1m37.234s
18 Kubica, 1m39.421s

That Bottas not only set a good pace, but was also comfortable in the car, was encouraging. He was not at one with the Mercedes at Hockenheim, and even grappled with it when the track dried up later on, describing it as "too much on the nose", and struggling in the traction zones. But he was much happier at the Hungaroring in the wet in particular.

"It felt a lot better," said Bottas, "I think the set-up of the car is quite different here. All I can say is it just felt a lot better and [had] a lot more grip in general. The balance was better.

"I think just looking at the lap times in the end that we were doing with the other cars at the same time, it looked quite easy."

Ominous words from Bottas, as what could have been a problematic day for Mercedes seemed to end positively. It was quickest both in the dry and intermediate conditions, the only thing missing was the usual FP2 long runs.

Hamilton did complete long-run work in FP1, during which Bottas was sidelined by an engine problem that forced a change, but there's no relevant comparable data from Red Bull or Ferrari. So, on the long-runs, it's hard to say anything other than the fact that, usually, Mercedes is relatively stronger on race pace than single-lap pace compared to Ferrari.

Verstappen concluded that the Red Bull "looks really competitive" despite a couple of spins in the wet conditions that he attributed to set-up experiments in FP1. He also found the stability improved in FP2, although that was perhaps down to the reduced wind.

"The car was competitive straight away," said Verstappen. "We learned some things with the balance as well, I think in the second practice in the beginning of course it was a bit drizzling out there, but the car seem to work.

"I was happy. Mercedes I think is still a little bit ahead of us, but we are definitely not far away."

As for Ferrari, Sebastian Vettel suggested Friday running was inconclusive and offered only a "glimpse" of the performance of the car in dry conditions. Neither Ferrari driver set a strong time in the afternoon, with Vettel admitting "maybe I was a bit too chicken" in the early FP2 laps when the track was dry but rain was falling.

When F1 teams and drivers are sent into the unknown, it can make for a gripping race

But in the dry conditions even in the morning he believed there was room to improve as he was struggling to get the maximum from the car. He was also grateful to run on intermediates in the damp after struggling at times during the German GP.

Team-mate Charles Leclerc suggested it wasn't a good day for Ferrari because of balance struggles in dry conditions, despite being happy with the car in the damp. With the Ferrari down on downforce compared to Mercedes and Red Bull, particularly with front-end load, a maximum downforce track such as the Hungaroring was always set to be a challenge.

The picture in the midfield battle was not emphatic, as is always the case when there's a Haas at the front of it given the bafflingly capricious performance of that car. On Friday, Kevin Magnussen in the latest-specification car performed strongly while team-mate Romain Grosjean struggled in the lower-downforce Australian GP-spec car.

"We struggled a little bit this morning with the grip," said Grosjean. "We know that the Melbourne-spec car doesn't like the cold temperatures, you can't generate any temperature in the tyres and therefore the car balance is very unpredictable and not so nice. It's completely the opposite on the other package, which is quite interesting so we are really looking at what the difference is between the two cars and [seeing if] we can get the best of both worlds.

"We know the old-spec is lacking downforce, it's obvious there's no development but whenever the track gets hotter, the feeling is really good and that should compensate for it."

McLaren, as expected given its performance in low-speed corners is not quite as strong as it is in the quicker stuff, was behind Renault and three-quarters of a second off Haas, so it might inhabit the edge of Q3 come qualifying.

But the bottom line is that, for all teams, Friday was not as conclusive a day as it should have been. While the rest of the weekend is less likely to be wet, that reduction in dry track time can only be good for creating a more unpredictable race.

After all, as we saw at Hockenheim last week, when F1 teams and drivers are sent into the unknown, it can make for a gripping race.