The challenge on Tsunoda's shoulders after Lawson's impressive F1 return

Before this year's Japanese Grand Prix, this writer attempted to extol the virtues of Yuki Tsunoda as a driver and question why he has been so far overlooked by Red Bull as Sergio Perez's successor in Formula 1. At the time, Tsunoda was putting Daniel Ricciardo - restored to the Red Bull family as a potential Perez replacement - to the sword, a trend that only increased as the Australian ultimately failed to capture his pre-McLaren form.

Since then, things have changed significantly. Ricciardo was given the boot after Singapore; the Perth-born driver had seen off initial speculation that he was due for the chop, but the situation suddenly developed in the lead-up to F1's Marina Bay race as he fell out of favour. Liam Lawson, who had starred in his 2023 cameo outings for AlphaTauri as Ricciardo's injury cover, was reinstated to the line-up for Austin.

The picture has changed for Tsunoda; significantly so, and not in the manner that he would like. Replacing a down-and-out driver who rarely looked close to a renaissance with a young, hungry upstart naturally introduces a very different dynamic in the team. It's a dynamic that Tsunoda should know, contextualised by Lawson's five-race stint for the team last year, but the very tangible reward of a Red Bull drive will ratchet up the pressure to an uncomfortable level.

Tsunoda got a little glimpse of the dynamic to expect early last year too, when partnered with Nyck de Vries at the team. Yet, for a variety of reasons, it eased quickly as de Vries scarcely got his feet under the AlphaTauri table. He fell prey to Helmut Marko's itchy trigger finger; Tsunoda had the Dutchman covered on all bases.

Ricciardo was drafted in at the behest of Christian Horner, who desperately wanted to help him recapture Verstappen-matching performance baseline to provide an alternative to the floundering Perez. When Ricciardo did impress, it was ephemeral at best. He was unable to build on his fleeting fortunes in Mexico's 2023 round and Miami's 2024 sprint race.

Lawson has thus returned and, based on the sample of data provided by the Austin weekend, Tsunoda needs to find another level in his driving; Lawson shrugged off a year on the sidelines and outperformed his team-mate by a significant magnitude. There are caveats to this, but the situation for Tsunoda is clear: give Lawson a bloodied nose, or risk losing his already-slim chance of ever moving up to Red Bull.

The task for Tsunoda to prove himself worthy of a place at Red Bull has become far harder with Lawson as a new yardstick

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

Red Bull's selective sentimentality probably precluded Lawson from starting the 2024 season with RB, as did the timing of the driver line-up call. Ricciardo was seemingly locked in at the point where Lawson stepped in and immediately made a splash.

There were marketing considerations too; the profile of Ricciardo was a better fit to draw in future marketing partners at a time when RB was content to sell off its identity to the highest bidder. He and Tsunoda remain dressed in team sponsor Hugo apparel upon the Hugo Boss brand's homepage, a month or so after Ricciardo's tenure at the team was ended.

But using Marko's ruthless application of F1's single yardstick against him, none of that matters more than the stopwatch. Lawson has already proved in just one race that he should have been there from the start of the year.

As the field spaced out, Lawson pitted from seventh and popped out of the pitlane in ninth - much to Tsunoda's globally broadcast chagrin

Detritus of marketing power firmly aside, Lawson was exceptional at the Circuit of the Americas. There was plenty stacked against him: a hefty power unit penalty as RB decided to change every power unit component on his car to components outside of the pool meant he was guaranteed to start towards the back of the grid.

The Kiwi hadn't raced in over a year either; a Pirelli test in Red Bull's RB20 rather doubled up as neck training to cope with the brain-melting series of corners between Turns 1 and 8 at the Austin venue. And, while the VCARB 01 isn't a million miles away from the AlphaTauri AT04 he'd raced last year, Lawson nonetheless needed to acquaint himself with all of RB's systems and idiosyncracies in a single practice session before diving straight into a (sprint) qualifying session.

It was of significant help to Lawson that, at the start of the grand prix, some of the more established runners on the F1 grid could not avoid contact. The skirmishes in front gave him the chance to upgrade 19th on the grid into 14th by the end of the first lap.

Furthermore, the hard-medium strategy was arguably the one to be on. Although the medium was the better race tyre, the hard compound rather grew into the race during the middle phase of the race and allowed for consistent times by the time the mediums reached their crossover point. As the field spaced out, Lawson pitted from seventh and popped out of the pitlane in ninth - much to Tsunoda's globally broadcast chagrin, as the Japanese driver saw the other blue-and-silver machine emerge further up the hill.

Lawson immediately set about impressing on his F1 return, navigating a course from the back of the grid to the points in Austin

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Getting the medium tyre with lower fuel ensured that Lawson wasn't even in the same postcode (or ZIP code, per the locale) as Tsunoda at the chequered flag - particularly as Tsunoda had a Turn 1 spin later on and haemorrhaged positions while sitting on the cusp of the top 10. Pre-weekend, Lawson reckoned that his aim with RB was to get into the points "as soon as possible" - doing so first time out checked that off the list.

That wasn't the only statement he made over the weekend. First, there was the scrap with Fernando Alonso in the sprint race: the one where he defended into Turn 12 by crossing the circuit, popping back into the usual braking zone, and gathering the switchback on the veteran Spaniard to invoke the fury of a man nearly twice his age. Lawson was a bit brazen here, properly baulking Alonso into the heaviest braking zone of the circuit, but it demonstrated just how gutsy he was willing to be.

Then there was the third-fastest time in Q1, a lap that ultimately meant nothing given Lawson's penalty. "That's all I wanted to do," Lawson said over the radio, as his onboards showed a consummate ease around the circuit, with very few moments of a driver ratcheting at the wheel in order to get the car to bite.

That's the level of challenge that Tsunoda's up against. On his behalf, Honda is lobbying Red Bull to give him a shot in an RB20 at the end-of-year Abu Dhabi test, but for this to be anything more than a taster session for the parent team means that he'll have to be flawless in the final five races. This is Tsunoda's is-he-really-a-Red-Bull-grade-driver litmus test, one that will test his mentality and his driving; any slip-ups and Lawson will find himself ahead in the pecking order.

This is what the earlier statement of "bloodied nose" alludes to: Tsunoda cannot just beat Lawson by a position or two in qualifying, because there will be terms and conditions that apply. Any small advantage can be explained away by Lawson's reduced experience in F1 - not only in fan discourse, but internally within the Red Bull hierarchy.

F1's littered with examples like that: in their year as Sauber team-mates Nick Heidfeld outperformed Kimi Raikkonen, but the Finn got the nod to join McLaren ahead of its own junior driver (Heidfeld) simply because he'd rocked up in F1 with 23 car races under his belt and got to within a couple of tenths of his senior team-mate.

PLUS: How Raikkonen's rapid rise stalled his team-mate's F1 career climb

Of the two, Tsunoda has the more difficult task. Lawson's job is to match his team-mate knowing that he should have a RB seat at the very least if he manages that. For Tsunoda, the stakes are higher: to persuade Horner - a man who has wilfully overlooked the 24-year-old - of his credentials for a Red Bull seat, he must dismantle Lawson calmly and effectively.

It might not be entirely fair on Tsunoda, who has at least earned the right to show what he can do in a Red Bull versus those who have already driven one, but F1's never been fair. And therein lies Tsunoda's next challenge, turbocharged by Lawson's arrival. He's got the ability to meet it - but it's all about the execution.

Can Tsunoda convince Horner that he is the man for the future, not Lawson?

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool