The 2012 AUTOSPORT Gamble

Andrew van de Burgt, AUTOSPORT Editor-in-chief (AV)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Button; 4. Webber; 5. Alonso

1. McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Ferrari; 4. Mercedes; 5. Lotus

I think the McLaren drivers are going to put up a great fight, but Williams 1986-style they are going to take points off each other as Vettel comes through to bag a third straight title and a place among the all-time greats.

Ferrari are in trouble now, but will turn it around in time to leapfrog Mercedes. Hamilton and Button will end McLaren's long search for a constructors' title but at the expense of one of them claiming the drivers' crown.

Charles Bradley, AUTOSPORT editor (CB)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Webber; 4. Button; 5. Rosberg

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Force India

Who is going to stop Vettel becoming only our third-ever back-to-back-to-back world champion? Er, no-one. But I predict that, with his future on the line, Hamilton will regain his previous focus and run him close. Similarly, I'm only putting Webber ahead of Button because of car advantage. Rosberg will outpace Schuey, who will see sense and retire (again).

Teamwise, I reckon Mercedes will make the biggest leap forward, jumping ahead of Ferrari into third, but not yet on a par with Red Bull and McLaren. Force India, with its ambitious and hungry driver pairing, will just shade Lotus for P5.

Simon Strang, AUTOSPORT.com editor (SS)

1. Vettel; 2. Button; 3. Hamilton; 4. Webber; 5. Alonso

1 McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

I really wanted to put a McLaren driver top of the pile, purely because I think Hamilton and Button can both take the fight to Vettel, but in the end Red Bull's man has more confidence at this point and less reason to entertain lingering questions in his mind. It's going to be a fight to the finish though, and Webber will be back on song and in that scrap too. I think that while Raikkonen will shine, and Mercedes will improve relentlessly for Rosberg and Schumacher, Alonso will pip them all for fifth with a strong Ferrari comeback in the second half of the season.

It's a gamble, so I'm betting on McLaren's renowned strong in-season development to finally outtrump Red Bull and take its first constructors' title in 14 years, particularly since both Hamilton and Button are on record as saying the car is that much better than the MP4-26 was this time last year. Though I'm finding it hard to believe Ferrari won't come back strong, I can't see the team overtaking Mercedes at this point, unless Massa transforms back into his 2008-spec version. Lotus will be in the mix too.

Jonathan Noble, Group F1 editor (JN)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Button; 4. Webber; 5. Rosberg

1. McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

It's always a dangerous game trying to make a firm prediction on the outcome of a season before many cars have turned a wheel in anger (Red Bull Racing and McLaren have been hiding their pace completely in testing), but you would have to say that everything looks like being in Vettel's hands again. He and the team can only be stronger - and that's bad news for nearest rival McLaren.

It will be the usual suspects at the front of the field again - with little separating Red Bull and McLaren. However, an improved car and totally on-song Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button will help McLaren overcome its rival and take its first constructors' title since 1998. Ferrari will also stage a late-season recovery, but it will not be enough to make up the ground lost to Mercedes at the start of the campaign.

Edd Straw, F1 editor (ES)

1. Vettel; 2. Button; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Alonso

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Lotus; 5. Ferrari

Predictions are a dangerous game, especially when made on flimsy pre-season testing evidence and with countless variables to take into account. But despite that, it's impossible to look beyond Vettel and Red Bull as 2012 drivers' and constructors' champions. It seems that McLaren and Mercedes are the nearest challengers, with Lotus not far off. Drivers'-championship wise, I'm going to go for a repeat of last year, with Button second thanks to a combination of his consistency and intelligence and a strong McLaren. But it's going to be pretty tight covering the top half-dozen or more, so it's basically a coin-toss from here.

I've gone for Webber to improve on last year and have a few more days when he troubles Vettel, and Hamilton to be in the mix, with Alonso nicking fifth thanks to his relentless consistency and an improving Ferrari. Teamwise, it's Red Bull from McLaren, with Mercedes and Lotus scoring strongly and Ferrari down in fifth - with Felipe Massa unable to back up Alonso's scoring rate.

Kevin Turner, Features editor (KT)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Button; 4. Webber; 5. Alonso

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Ferrari; 4. Mercedes; 5. Lotus

Vettel put in one of the great F1 seasons last year and, with another Newey masterpiece, there's no reason to think he won't be as strong this time around. I like the way Button races, but surely Hamilton will go better this year. I expect them both to beat Webber, who must be in his final Red Bull season. Despite the problems Ferrari seem to be having, Alonso will always get something out of it and I expect him to finish best of the rest.

With the rules remaining pretty stable, it's hard to look beyond Red Bull when it comes to who will have the best car. McLaren seems to have made a better start than in recent seasons and should be the closest challenger. Ferrari may not start the season in third, but with its resources - and Alonso - it's bound to end in the top three. I expect Mercedes and Lotus to close the gap to the Big Three, but ultimately not beat them. Force India, with one of the most exciting driver line-ups on the grid, could well challenge the bigger squads to begin with, but is likely to lose out in the development race.

Glenn Freeman, News editor (GF)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Button; 4. Webber; 5. Alonso

1. McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

As nice as it would be to see Mercedes or Lotus mixing it for regular race wins, in stable regulations I just can't see it. Vettel should have a tougher time of things this year, but the chances of the McLaren drivers taking points off each other (especially if we have a resurgent Hamilton) could let him slip through the net.

The strength of McLaren's line-up could cost it the drivers' title, but the other side of that coin is that it should land an elusive first constructors' crown since 1998 as a consolation. If the Ferrari starts the season as a dog of a car, there could be a lot of drivers able to get between Fernando Alonso and Felipe Massa, costing the Scuderia dearly in the standings.

Jamie O'Leary, Reports editor (JOL)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Webber; 4. Button; 5. Alonso

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

The picture from testing indicates that Vettel will begin the year with a target on the side of his Red Bull in terms of pace, but the updated RB8 missed crucial mileage at Barcelona and that could leave it vulnerable to the impressive-looking McLaren. If the MP4-27 is as good as it looks, expect a rejuvenated Lewis Hamilton to get the best out of it and fight for a second title.

Ferrari appears to be up the creek without a paddle, and the points lost in the early-season flyaways will prevent Alonso mounting a title challenge. Expect a massive update for the Mugello test though, and a far more competitive package afterwards, which should be enough to get the Spaniard ahead of Raikkonen's Lotus and the Mercedes pair.

Mark Glendenning, US editor (MG)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Button; 4. Webber; 5. Schumacher

1. McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Mercedes; 4. Lotus; 5. Ferrari

A trawl through the archive revealed that I've been doing these pre-season Gambles since 2000, so there's no reason to stop getting them wrong now. This time around I'm opting for Vettel to take his third drivers' title, although a strong pre-season for McLaren could translate into a good start to the year for Hamilton and Button. Schumacher should also relish what looks to be an improved Mercedes, provided that he can maintain his advantage over Rosberg.

Red Bull appears to have the early impetus once again, but McLaren is not far behind. One thing that McLaren is especially good at is development during the season, and this could be the catalyst in delivering the constructors' title to Woking for the first time since 1998. Things should be close between Mercedes and Lotus, especially if Grosjean can chip in with a few points rather than leaving all the work to Raikkonen. Ferrari? As things stand, the cons outweigh the pros.

Pablo Elizalde, Web managing editor (PE)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Alonso; 4. Rosberg; 5. Button

1. McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

I have a lot to live up to after having bet on Nick Heidfeld last year... Having said that - and despite the fact that this piece is called the AUTOSPORT Gamble ('gamble' being the key word) - I'm going to be slightly more conservative this year and say that Sebastian Vettel will grab his third consecutive title.

I believe the Red Bull will not be as strong as it was last year, but the world champion will still make the best of it to beat a rejuvenated Lewis Hamilton, who will have the best car of the field in several races, helping McLaren clinch the constructors' championship.

Ferrari will endure another difficult season but Fernando Alonso will continue to flatter the Italian car with his performances. Nico Rosberg will score his first grand prix win in a stronger Mercedes, while Jenson Button will be unable to repeat the kind of showing he put on during the 2011 season.

Mark Hughes, Grand prix editor (MH)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Webber; 4 Button; 5. Rosberg

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

Vettel and Red Bull; the fastest car, one of the very fastest drivers = third title. I can't believe Hamilton is going to have another unfocused year so he will be back to his best, but from a pre-season perspective I'm finding it difficult to believe McLaren will be quite as quick as Red Bull. Webber will have a more competitive 2012 than '11, as I'm figuring that he will have got on top of the Pirelli challenge better. Button will have his usual mix of stunning drives and other weekends where the car won't work for him, and I expect Rosberg to maximise a much-improved car, but still reckon McLaren will have the edge.

Red Bull will set the standard as I still don't believe the secret of this line of cars has been decoded. McLaren will finish a closer second than in 2011, but still second. Mercedes may score the odd race win and regularly mix it with McLaren maybe, while Ferrari should also score race wins but with patchy form from a very different car. I also expect podiums and good competitive performances from both Lotus drivers.

Henry Hope-Frost, Sub-editor/AUTOSPORT presenter (HHF)

1. Vettel; 2, Hamilton; 3. Button; 4. Webber; 5. Alonso

1. McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Ferrari; 4. Mercedes; 5. Lotus

Better stick to what I think will probably happen, rather than what I'd like to happen. There's little evidence to suggest the Vettel/Red Bull steamroller won't continue to flatten all around it. Behind him, Hamilton will have the edge over Button this time, simply because he has to. Webber will use his car advantage to keep the faster but frustrated Alonso at bay.

The super-consistent Button will be better backed up by Hamilton in 2012, meaning McLaren will pip Red Bull to its first makes' title since 1998. Alonso and his last-chance team-mate Felipe Massa will keep on scoring for Ferrari, while Mercedes (again mega at some tracks, mediocre at others) will finish best of the rest. Rounding out my top five will be Lotus, thanks to the rejuvenated talents of Raikkonen and Grosjean.

Marcus Simmons, Chief sub-editor (MS)

1. Vettel; 2. Button; 3. Webber; 4. Hamilton; 5. Raikkonen

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Lotus; 5. Ferrari

Vettel is still on top form at the moment and there is no reason to suspect that any technical team led by Adrian Newey is going to drop the ball - or even let any of the others get close. Button just amazes me with the way his career continues to mature and I can see him running Vettel closer this year than last. Hamilton hasn't yet proved that he can process the demands thrown up by current-era F1 in the same way that Button can. Raikkonen I feel was written off by people who didn't understand what was going on at Ferrari.

Although I think Lotus man Raikkonen will head both Mercedes, I think the Rosberg/Schumacher partnership is more capable of bringing home consistent points for the three-pointed star. No disrespect to Grosjean, and I'd be delighted if he performs well as it would hopefully encourage more teams to bring in drivers from the junior ranks. I'm sure Ferrari will recover from the current strife with the car, but unfortunately the team only has one driver capable of driving quickly without hitting other cars.

Ben Anderson, National editor (BA)

1. Vettel; 2. Button; 3. Hamilton; 4. Webber; 5. Alonso

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

Consensus says Red Bull and McLaren have produced the best cars this year, so I expect their drivers will fight it out for the title. Hopefully, the McLaren boys will give Vettel more of a run for his money this year. The Ferrari hasn't looked good so far, but it will improve, and Alonso has an extraordinary habit of finishing higher up than his car should allow.

Much will depend on how well the McLaren drivers and Webber fare. If Hamilton is back on top form then the Woking team may well pip Red Bull to the constructors' title, unless Webber's form improves too, in which case I expect RBR will stay top of the pile. Ferrari's early issue may allow an improving Merc team to get ahead, but I think Lotus will just have enough to see off a very strong Force India line-up.

Geoff Creighton, AUTOSPORT.com technical team leader (GC)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Button; 4. Webber; 5. Alonso

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

Few would bet against a third straight title triumph for Vettel, but the onset of teething problems with the RB8 in testing could be the opportunity Hamilton needs to bounce back from a torrid 2011 and take the fight to the clear favourite, pushed all the way by impressive team-mate Button. Alonso will always make the best of the tools at his disposal, but it could be a tough campaign for the Spaniard unless Ferrari can quickly unlock the secrets of its troublesome challenger.

Red Bull is set for further constructors' glory - providing it quickly returns to the bulletproof reliability demonstrated last year - but the champion team will need Webber to deliver greater consistency in backing up his team-mate or the strong McLaren pairing will provide a serious challenge. Mercedes looks to be closer to the ultimate pace this year, depending on how well it can race the Pirelli rubber, while on testing form Ferrari seems set for a frustrating season and a scrap with the potentially-impressive Lotus outfit.

Matt Beer, Web duty editor (MB)

1 Vettel; 2 Button; 3 Hamilton; 4 Alonso; 5 Grosjean

1 McLaren; 2 Red Bull; 3 Mercedes; 4 Ferrari; 5 Lotus

Predicting that F1 2012 will be closer than F1 2011 is one thing, predicting that means Vettel will be deposed is another entirely. It would be good to see the new era's dominant German made to work a little harder, but he had such a big comfort margin in hand last year that a third title seems an obvious outcome. It looks like it will be McLaren giving chase, at least while Ferrari gets to grips with the F2012, but it's hard to imagine Alonso going winless all year.

Lotus and Mercedes sneaking into the mix would be fantastic as well, and the black-and-gold cars in particular hinted at great things in testing. So the deliberately bold part of this gamble is my optimistic pick for fifth in the drivers' championship, as Grosjean gets the chance to show how much better he is than the troubled 2009 version that first appeared in F1.

Adam Cooper, AUTOSPORT contributor (AC)

1. Button; 2. Vettel; 3. Hamilton; 4. Alonso; 5. Rosberg.

1. McLaren; 2. Red Bull; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Lotus

It really is an impossible ask this year, but if I have to go for someone it will be Button, if only on the basis that it will be a close run thing and whoever wins will do it on those hard-won thirds and fourths. I think Hamilton will have a better season than last year but he just seems to attract aggro and may have some expensive retirements. This time last year we were writing off McLaren, and I think it will be dangerous to do that to Ferrari. I suspect that Alonso will become a factor as the year goes on. I would love to put Raikkonen in this group but can't find space - let's put him sixth!

Again it will be very close in the constructors'. I think Red Bull could well be the team to beat but it won't have the advantage (and possibly reliability) that we saw last year, and McLaren may just edge it on the combined results of its drivers. I've given Mercedes the edge over Ferrari but both may very well be trumped by Lotus if the car is as good as it appeared to be in testing. Whether that momentum can be maintained until November is another question.

Tony Dodgins, AUTOSPORT contributor (TD)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Webber; 4. Button; 5. Rosberg

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Lotus; 5. Ferrari

I think Red Bull will still be the pacesetters in 2012, but it will be tighter and I can see a resurgent, more focused Hamilton pushing hard. You always feel nervous leaving Alonso and Ferrari out of a top five but they could have a tough year, certainly at the beginning, and I fancy Rosberg could emerge as stronger force.

Red Bull is obviously on the crest of a wave and I just see that continuing, with McLaren the strongest opposition. Mercedes has a very strong technical line-up and it underperformed last year, as did Renault, so with decent driver line-ups and evidently strong reliability, I can see it causing problems for Ferrari. Might look a bit daft in eight months' time though...

Dieter Rencken, AUTOSPORT contributor (DR)

1. Vettel; 2. Webber; 3. Hamilton; 4. Button; 5. Alonso

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Ferrari; 4. Mercedes; 5= Lotus/Force India

Vettel is on a mission: to be youngest 'everything' driver, and stands on the cusp of being F1's youngest triple champion, and one of only three such drivers in F1 history. Combine that with sublime skill and superb Red Bull team and engineering support, and the final result is not in doubt. Nor is that of runner-up Mark Webber, who has the same RB8, plus is burning after being overshadowed for three straight years. Hamilton has a goer from the start in the MP4-27 and is well on the way to sorting his life, but the blue team will prove a bridge too far, as it will for Button, who will prove formidable on his day. Alonso? The Spaniard should be up there chasing Vettel for the youngest triple crown - but F2012 will let him down, if only at the start.

Red Bull chased by McLaren is the likely story of the constructors', with Ferrari and Mercedes scrapping it out for third, and Lotus/Force India there or thereabouts. The first two each have superb driver pairings, while the Italian and German squads rely on one-and-a-half each, which will make the ultimate difference. Fifth place will be down to whether Raikkonen can play the Paul di Resta/Nico Hulkenberg combo - and how much Grosjean intervenes - for on performance there is little to choose between the black/gold and gaudy cars.

Sam Tremayne, AUTOSPORT writer (ST)

1. Vettel; 2. Hamilton; 3. Webber; 4. Button; 5. Rosberg

1. Red Bull; 2. McLaren; 3. Mercedes; 4. Ferrari; 5. Force India

It's hardly original picking Vettel for the top spot, but the reigning champion was always going to be the man to beat. In fact, it's remarkable how likely it seems that the German will claim a third straight crown, given that only two men in F1 history have previously managed the feat. The hope of course is that someone can get closer to him than they managed last year, and to that end I've gone for Hamilton - too often the master of his own downfall in 2011, at his best he still probably constitutes Vettel's biggest threat.

Testing form suggests the season will start with Red Bull pitted against McLaren. Previous years have shown how dangerous it can be to read too much into testing, but it's difficult to imagine either team not being in the fight come the end of the season. The real battle may be slightly further back. Ferrari is in trouble and, while only a fool would write it off completely, the door does appear to be open for Mercedes to jump into third.