Suzuka sensation redeemed Alonso, but his F1 future is complicated

“I think it was my best weekend. I don't know. Or the top five. Inside the top five ever, for me.”

At a classic, brilliant Formula 1 venue in Suzuka, the championship saw and heard both adjectives in and from Fernando Alonso too. His assessment above after taking his Aston Martin to sixth in Sunday’s race – a day after he’d qualified fifth – brings in another one: vintage Alonso. His unique brand of hyperbole was back on full display. And deservedly so.

Plus: Japanese Grand Prix Driver Ratings 2024

Suzuka was, after all, a venue where Aston trailed its frontrunning rivals badly on F1’s last visit here just six months ago. Its 2024 pecking order place means ninth is its baseline expectation. And Lance Stroll’s pitiful weekend in the other AMR23 again highlighted the heights to which Alonso can elevate the green team single-handedly.

He capped his run to sixth with a superb effort to hold off Oscar Piastri and George Russell at the death – having dropped back from the podium fight early on keeping his fragile starting softs alive so well, all while holding off Piastri. He then dropped the Australian before warding off McLaren’s second-stop undercut attempt.

Late on, Alonso evoked memories of Carlos Sainz’s famous Singapore 2023 win in repeatedly altering his energy deployment – and at one stage even hanging back to wait for Piastri – to ensure he got DRS to aid his own attempt to hold off the charging Mercedes.

“I could tell that Fernando was trying to keep me there,” Piastri said afterwards. “By the way he was using his energy. I think with how difficult it is to follow in these cars, it's quite a good strategy to stop a quicker car coming through.”

“I was taking a bit of battery off on the last straight to get Piastri within a second,” Alonso said of his run from Spoon Curve, through 130R and to the chicane over the six laps to the final tour. “Carlos did it like that in Singapore last year too, and it's a normal racing thing.”

Alonso slowed ahead of Piastri in Australia, but not to the same extent and without incident this time around

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

Canny as ever. But it was what Alonso had already told Spanish television channel DAZN that registered more.

"I don't know what to say anymore after Australia, let's see if I get disqualified for the rest of the championship,” he joked of his Suzuka tactics.

The F1 paddock knew the decision to penalise him for his part in the ‘brake test’ controversy that contributed to Russell's dramatic crash in the final moments of the Melbourne race still rankled for Alonso in Japan.

Just three days earlier, the reaction and fallout from the saga had dominated F1’s news agenda, with the powder of the Christian Horner/Red Bull scandal remaining dry for the second successive weekend. The are, however, still shots to be fired in that particular case…

Although it seems there hasn’t been any further clarification on such tactics, it has had an impact nevertheless

Alonso was defiant, if not fully fired up – at the same time wanting the focus on his botched tactics to end. What didn’t help him was the unusual split in the driving cohort regarding what the Spaniard had done in putting Russell off at an Albert Park corner that Autosport revealed at Suzuka is being assessed for significant changes for 2025 as a result of the many recent crashes there.

Haas racer Nico Hulkenberg “wasn't very impressed with Fernando's tactics”, while Sauber drivers Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu both called the decision to penalise the Spaniard “harsh”. Max Verstappen – hardly a stranger to racing battle sagas – opted to deflect.

“We'll discuss it in the driver's briefing,” he said on Thursday.

Two days later, however, he seemed to delight in telling Autosport that hadn’t, in fact, come to pass.

Verstappen opted to keep his thoughts on Alonso's late Australian GP tactics to himself

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“We had a short briefing,” he said gleefully. “It's good. No, I think everyone's a bit tired. Tired of it!”

Although it seems there hasn’t been any further clarification on such tactics – which once again we should highlight are legitimate and long-standing, if executed better than Alonso managed in Melbourne, where he ended up being too clever for his own good and losing four points as a result – it has had an impact nevertheless.

Plus: The three factors behind Verstappen overturning Perez's real Suzuka advantage

Mercedes was distinctly unimpressed by the whole affair. It backed Russell, who engaged in his own ‘attack is the best form of defence’ strategy to cover his own error in the crash by saying at Suzuka that not penalising Alonso risked opening “a can of worms”.

But Autosport understands that Mercedes was additionally narked by Alonso’s team radio and subsequent media suggestions that he’d been suffering from an engine issue during the Russell clash. The manufacturer apparently couldn’t see that in the data.

Mercedes’ position on Alonso matters. After all, it has a seat available for 2025 with Lewis Hamilton heading to Ferrari. And he’s made no secret of his availability as one of “only three world champions on the grid”.

The Melbourne matter simply hasn’t helped his appeal to the Silver Arrows squad. But, in any case, it seemed at Suzuka that Alonso’s window of moving there was closing anyway.

Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff said there, “we haven't taken the decision yet and it's not something that we plan to do in the next few weeks”, plus “some of the really good guys are about to sign for some of the other teams”.

This has been interpreted as confirmation Wolff is willing to wait to sign Formula 2 racer and Mercedes junior Andrea Kimi Antonelli. His underwhelming start to the 2024 F2 season actually works in Mercedes's favour, as it keeps the pressure on for the young Italian to maintain his massive career momentum.

Alonso's interest in the vacant Mercedes seat for 2025 has not been helped by recent events

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Matters are also now more complicated for another possible 2025 Alonso destination. With Sergio Perez impressing in backing up Verstappen at Suzuka, Red Bull team boss Christian Horner says the Mexican “has the priority” to continue in his current seat if he keeps this form up. And Red Bull’s motorsport advisor, Helmut Marko, was courting Sainz last weekend too.

Alonso’s compatriot also being available for next year and continuing to do so brilliantly for Ferrari is another complication for the double world champion. There is even a paddock suggestion he’d now make a good, long-term option to partner Stroll at Aston.

Plus, Marko said last weekend that another Sainz suitor, Audi, is “making pressure” to get its 2026 driver line-up in place for the final Sauber year too. And perhaps this could aid Alonso if Sainz can’t risk waiting for Red Bull or Mercedes to be totally set on their future line-ups.

Alonso’s compatriot, Sainz, also being available for next year and continuing to do so brilliantly for Ferrari is another complication for the double world champion

Therefore, an Alonso-Aston renewal seems the most likely outcome now the unexpectedly active 2025 driver market has reached April. But a driver of his calibre is rarely happy with a short-term offer – this was a factor in his 2022 Alpine exit – and Aston’s Honda future complicates matters once again.

But, away from speculation’s realm, there will be a certainty if Mercedes does indeed hire Antonelli for 2025, even if he’s parked at Williams for a Russell-like apprenticeship it seems Mercedes is open to at this stage.

This is that one of the current crop would have to make way. And for all his recent fault – to many not even that big a deal – F1 would suffer without its absolute Alonso factor.

Where will Alonso land when the chips fall in the driver market?

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images