Stats: will Alonso do a Mansell?

Sebastian Vettel could become world champion in Japan this weekend, but even Red Bull admits he probably won't - as that requires Fernando Alonso to finish no higher than ninth.

Suzuka has become synonymous with championship deciders, although in historical terms it still trails Monza for the accolade of hosting the most title clinchers. Twelve seasons were decided at Monza - mostly in Formula 1's early days when it was towards the end of the calendar - compared to 11 at Suzuka.

But unless Alonso has a rare disaster, 2013 is likely to join the shorter list of titles that could have been sealed at Suzuka, but weren't...

SUZUKA'S NOT-QUITE-CLINCHERS

1994: Michael Schumacher led Damon Hill by five points arriving in Japan, so a ninth win of the year with his Williams rival outside the top two would have done the trick.

Instead Hill produced arguably the drive of his career in a two-part race in appalling weather. Schumacher made two pitstops to Hill's one, and despite reeling him in on aggregate time in a tense race against the stopwatch in the closing laps, Hill hung on and closed the gap to just one point heading to that infamous Adelaide finale...

Villeneuve couldn't hold the Ferraris back in 1997 © LAT

1997: After a mid-season wobble, Jacques Villeneuve had re-established a nine-point advantage over Schumacher following the Nurburgring, where the Canadian benefited from the McLarens' engine failures to win while Schumacher collided with the Jordans at the start.

Outscoring Schumacher by a point was all Villeneuve had to do in Japan, but instead he found himself racing under appeal after being hauled up for ignoring yellow flags in practice - a misdemeanour that when added to transgressions earlier in the year appeared set to give him a ban.

Knowing his result was unlikely to count, Villeneuve tried to slow the pace in the hope rivals would attack Schumacher. The only man on the move, though, was Schumacher's Suzuka specialist Ferrari team-mate Eddie Irvine. The Italian team beat Williams at its own game, with Schumacher ending up victorious while Villeneuve was only fifth - and then he lost those two points anyway.

Villeneuve had the last laugh, though, as Schumacher's attempt to take him off in the Jerez decider got him thrown out of the standings and made the Canadian champion.

2006: After defeating the Renaults in the Chinese rain, Schumacher had a shot at becoming champion in what should have been his farewell season.

To do that he needed to win with Fernando Alonso not scoring as they were equal on points but Schumacher's win rate was superior. In the event the result was the exact opposite of what Ferrari wanted, as a Schumacher engine failure gave Alonso the win, and a very easy job to do in the Interlagos finale.

CHALLENGERS' MISFORTUNE

If Vettel does win the crown this weekend, it will surely be because something has gone very wrong for Alonso, as it's highly unlikely that the Ferrari will be finishing ninth or lower on pure pace.

Quite a few of Suzuka's F1 title clinchers have happened because something went painfully wrong for the man chasing the leader, though...

1987: Nigel Mansell was up against it when he came to Suzuka's first grand prix in 1987, trailing his more consistent Williams team-mate Nelson Piquet by 12 points with two events left. Having won the previous two races, he still had hope, but that was extinguished before race day. A massive practice crash not only ended Mansell's title bid, it also curtailed his season and made Piquet champion for a third and final time.

Mansell, tucked up behind Senna, ran wide at Turn 1 and ended his race in the gravel © LAT

1991: It was a similar story for Mansell four years later. He was 16 points behind Ayrton Senna heading to the penultimate round at Suzuka, but the Williams-Renault package was getting ever stronger.

Senna's McLaren team-mate Gerhard Berger beat the Brazilian to pole, with Mansell third. While Berger was allowed to pull away in the lead, Senna focused on keeping Mansell under control. As they started lap 10, Mansell ran wide at the first corner and spun off, giving Senna his third championship. The Brazilian then hunted down and vaulted Berger, before handing his team-mate the win in rather patronising fashion at the final corner.

1998: Japan was the finale in 1998, and Mika Hakkinen was four points clear of Schumacher after defeating the German at the Nurburgring. Schumacher put his Ferrari on pole, only to stall at the start then retire with a puncture, making the decider rather less tense than runaway race winner and first-time champion Hakkinen expected.

THE CLASS OF 2013 AT SUZUKA

Suzuka has been a happy venue for...

• Vettel has started from pole in all four of his Suzuka races and won three of them. The only time he didn't win was in 2011, when a third place was enough to grant him his second world title. He has spent 75 per cent of the total distance (164 laps out of 212) of his four Japanese GPs in the lead, heading the whole race both in 2009 and last year. No other driver in history has been able to lead for such a high percentage of four races contested at a circuit.

• Suzuka's return to the F1 calendar in 2009 coincided with the start of Red Bull's best years. It filled the front row in 2010 and '12, and Mark Webber has added two top-four finishes to Vettel's wins.

2011: Button outfoxed his rivals to triumph © XPB

• Jenson Button won the 2011 Suzuka race from third on the grid. He was able to outfox Lewis Hamilton at the first round of pitstops and Vettel at the second. He was also on the Japanese GP podium in 2004 with BAR in third, and has scored points at Suzuka for the last four years. Button has finished every Suzuka race he started within the top eight, and always qualified in the top 10 - starting in his rookie year with Williams in 2000 when he famously beat team-mate Ralf Schumacher to fifth on the grid.

• Kimi Raikkonen is the author of the best comeback in the history of Suzuka, when in 2005 he won despite starting 17th, passing Fisichella on the outside of the first turn at the beginning of the last lap. He counts four more podiums here (2002-03, '07-08). Excluding his sabbatical years, he's scored points here every year it has been on the calendar since 2002, including sixth last year. But like his future Ferrari team-mate Alonso, he has never qualified on the front row at Suzuka.

Suzuka has not been a good track for...

• Webber has a very different Suzuka record to Red Bull team-mate Vettel. Second in 2010 is his only podium at the track. Last year he was rammed by Romain Grosjean after the start, but nevertheless managed to score points for the third year running at this track. His qualifying performance is not particularly impressive here, as since 2006 he has been beaten by his team-mates and in '09 he couldn't qualify at all after a practice crash.

The only team-mates he has managed to outqualify at Suzuka have all now left F1: Alex Yoong, Justin Wilson, Christian Klien and Antonio Pizzonia. He has led only one lap at Suzuka: when Vettel made his pitstop in 2010.

Alonso and Raikkonen collided heading down to Turn 1 in 2012 © LAT

• Alonso may have taken a crucial Suzuka win in 2006, but otherwise his record at the track is mixed. He has two other podiums here with Ferrari from 2010-11, but last year he was out of the race at the first turn after a collision with Raikkonen that punctured his left rear tyre. That day he lost the lead in the championship and, to date, was never able to take it back. He has never qualified on the front row at Suzuka.

• Romain Grosjean has never scored points at Suzuka, but was a deciding factor in both his races at the track. In 2009 he was lapped and found himself between leader Vettel and the pack at a safety car restart, helping Vettel make a break. Last year he punted off Vettel's front-row partner and team-mate Webber.

• Lewis Hamilton has only climbed onto the podium once at Suzuka with third in 2009. He then came fifth for three consecutive years. He has always qualified in the top 10 here, but never on the front row (he was third in 2009 and '11), whereas he took pole for both of Fuji's Japanese GPs in 2007 and '08. Suzuka is one of the two tracks on the current calendar where he has never started on the front row, the other being Buddh.

• McLaren and Ferrari share the honour for most Suzuka wins with seven each, but their recent records are more patchy amid Red Bull's domination at the venue.

McLaren has been on the podium only twice since Suzuka came back onto the calendar: Button won in 2011 and Hamilton was third in 2009. Nevertheless, the McLarens have finished in the top five in the last three races run here.

The last front-row start for a Ferrari at Suzuka dates back to 2006 (Felipe Massa). The last Ferrari win here was in 2004 for Schumacher.