Stats: when will Vettel surpass Schumacher?

Sebastian Vettel is a man who appreciates Formula 1 statistics - and he broke or matched plenty of single-season records as he dominated 2013, with his 13 wins in a year equalling Michael Schumacher's benchmark and his nine-race winning streak a new target for future racers.

Schumacher holds most of F1's major success records thanks to his extraordinary achievements with Ferrari in the first half of the 2000s, but he already expects Vettel to be the man to snatch them from him.

Vettel has time on his side too - he was on the grand prix grid aged just 19, and in a championship-calibre car at 22. For Schumacher, those particular opportunities did not come until he was 22 and 25 respectively.

So how long will it take Vettel to become statistically F1's greatest of all time? AUTOSPORT and its statistics partner FORIX got the spreadsheets and calculators out to figure out that and a few other intriguing future stats...

THE MATHS

Vettel had a brief stint at the back of the grid with the 2007 Toro Rosso © LAT

Across his 120 grand prix starts, Vettel has had half a season in a back-of-the-grid car (Toro Rosso in 2007), a year in a midfield machine capable of shocking (Toro Rosso '08) and five seasons in a Red Bull that has ranged from regular race winner to dominant rival-crusher, and has been podium-worthy at worst.

Given that performance spread, averaging his statistics across his whole F1 career to date seems a fair way of predicting his future too.

Just taking the numbers from the Red Bull years assumes that the Milton Keynes squad will never have any blips, or that Vettel will never make a team switch comparable with Schumacher leaving Benetton's title-winning squad for a then-floundering Ferrari. Taking averages that include 2007-'08 accounts for future downturns but assumes they will be brief given his pedigree.

So with Vettel having won 39 times from 120 starts, his average is one victory every 3.077 grands prix. Throwing that forward, using the same formula for the other records he is targeting, and assuming a calendar averaging 19 races and that some landmark GPs will retain their usual annual positions, we had a stab at predicting when Vettel will surpass Schumacher.

CHASING SCHUMACHER

ACHIEVEMENT        SCHU RECORD  VETTEL SCORE  PREDICTION FOR BEATING IT
Most poles            68           45         2017 Chinese GP
Most races led        142          65         2021 Hungarian GP
Most wins             91           39         2022 British GP
Most podiums          155          62         2023 German GP
Most fastest laps     77           22         2029 Japanese GP

The pole record has to be first in Vettel's sights. Achievements such as his 15 poles from 19 races in 2011 have marked him out as more of a one-lap specialist than Schumacher, who did not take a pole at all until his 42nd F1 start, the 1994 Monaco GP, two weeks after Ayrton Senna's death.

Schumacher's first pole did not come until Monaco 1994 © LAT

Schumacher 'only' earned 20 poles from his first 120 grands prix. Bar a chunk of 1994, he did not get an undisputed benchmark car until the 2000 Ferrari, so more often had to rely on racecraft to overcome outright faster cars from Williams and McLaren.

It's the most wins column where Schumacher's margin over every other driver in F1 history is most stark, as his record of 91 victories is 40 ahead of second-placed Alain Prost.

Vettel is currently statistically on course to beat Schumacher's record at the 2022 British GP, by which time he will be 35 years old. Schumacher managed another 21 wins after his 35th birthday so there is certainly scope for Vettel to get into three figures.

The fastest laps record could be a frustrating one for Vettel, though. Despite his fondness for setting those marks, he has only done so in 22 of his 120 races.

That's down to the current F1 format as much as his engineer Guillaume 'Rocky' Roquelin's famous exhortations to stop his man showboating.

In an era when a well-timed tyre change can prompt such a huge surge in pace and leaders often conserve rubber, drivers who have denied Vettel fastest laps during title-winning seasons include Bruno Senna, Kamui Kobayashi, Vitaly Petrov and Esteban Gutierrez.

If he wants to claim the all-time fastest laps record, Vettel needs to listen to Rocky less and score them more regularly or race into his 40s.

RECORD LONGEVITY?

Button is on course to become F1's most experienced racer if he sticks around a few more years © XPB

Starting so young in F1 gives Vettel a very realistic shot at two of the sport's longevity records.

Provided that long-rumoured Ferrari move doesn't materialise in the short-term, he is on course to break the record for the most races with a single team around the 2018 British GP, when his Red Bull stint passes the 179 GPs Schumacher ran with Ferrari.

Surpassing Rubens Barrichello as F1's longest-serving driver is achievable too, as Vettel could do that around the 2024 Belgian GP, when he will be 37.

But this one is a moving target, and you'd put good money on Jenson Button (currently heading for his 250th GP at the age of 33) overhauling Barrichello's 322-race record by early 2018.

THE RECORDS SURELY OUT OF VETTEL'S REACH

Vettel already has a good crop of 'F1's youngest' records. Sticking around long enough to add some 'F1's oldest' will require him to match the racers of the 1950s, who stretched their careers into their forties or even fifties.

Fagioli, with some help from Fangio, became F1's oldest winner in the 1951 French GP © LAT

To beat Juan Manuel Fangio and become F1's oldest champion would require Vettel to win the 2033 crown, which would not only make him 46 years old, but a veteran of over 500 grands prix (unless he took some Schumacher-style years out, and made a more successful comeback).

If he wants to beat Giuseppe Farina's 1954 Argentinian GP 'oldest polesitter' record of 47 years, two months and 18 days, Vettel will need to maintain his blistering one-lap form until the 2034 Singapore GP.

Then it gets harder still. Luigi Fagioli is F1's oldest winner thanks to his 1951 French GP triumph at the age of 53 years and 22 days, while pre-war racer Philippe Etancelin's fifth place in a Talbot Lago in the 1950 Italian GP makes him the oldest points scorer at 53 years, eight months and six days.

Vettel needs to win the 2040 British GP and score in the '41 Australian GP to depose Fagioli and Etancelin. Melbourne 2041 would potentially be his 636th grand prix start...

CAN KVYAT BEAT VETTEL?

Another man following Vettel's Red Bull career path could start chipping away at the champion's 'youngest' records this year. If Daniil Kvyat can break into the top 10 in any of his first three grands prix, he will take away Vettel's Indianapolis 2007 record as F1's youngest points scorer (aged 19 years, 11 months and 14 days).

Kvyat has plenty more such targets to shoot for in the next four seasons.

If he leads any of the first 10 grands prix of 2014, he will depose Vettel as F1's youngest race leader, an accolade the German achieved for Toro Rosso in the sodden 2007 Japanese GP.

Rosberg's fastest lap on his F1 debut was a record-breaker © LAT

Kvyat then has until roughly British GP time in 2015 to get a pole and a win at a younger age than record-holder Vettel's Monza 2008 breakthrough, and needs to clinch a title before September 7 2017 (let's say Italian GP time) to take the 'youngest champion' accolade.

Vettel himself failed to get two of the other 'youngest' records. Nico Rosberg became F1's youngest fastest lap setter as he recovered from a first-corner clash on his F1 debut in the 2006 Bahrain GP. A fastest lap for Kvyat any time this year will take that record away.

To become F1's youngest ever championship leader, Kvyat has to head the points table before September 2 2016. Lewis Hamilton took that record when he moved ahead of Fernando Alonso in the 2007 standings after that year's Spanish GP.

McLaren rookie Kevin Magnussen has a shot at this one, too. Already 21, he is too old to be a contender for most of F1's youth records, but if McLaren has a spectacular turnaround and he leads the points at all in 2014, that accolade could be his.

But as a reminder that it might be premature to speculate about Kvyat's record-breaking potential, you only have to look at the fate of F1's youngest ever racer.

Jaime Alguersuari was 19 years, four months and three days old when he made his debut with Toro Rosso in the 2009 Hungarian GP. He made what may yet be his final F1 start two and a half years later, dropped at the age of 21.

AUTOSPORT's statistics partner FORIX is the internet's most comprehensive motorsport database, covering all of Formula 1 history as well as all the world's other leading series