Stakes high as McLaren makes tyre gamble

While Ferrari have stuck with most of the grid and opted for the faster Extra Soft tyres, McLaren have chosen the tortoise option - the Softcompound.

Tyre suppliers Bridgestone predict that means McLaren will make one stop while the Maranello men are probably on two.

If the weather flits between wet and dry (and it has rained between 2pm and 4pm for all but one of the last 38 days) the Extra Soft compound is likely to be best according to paddock experts.

While McLaren's grid positions have been painted as a disaster the team's technicians knew before the session started they were unlikely to be ahead of the Ferraris.

They are hoping less stops and a slower average lap speed will work in their favour.

Ferrari believe the plan of blistering into the distance and trying to maintain their lead from start to finish will pay dividends.

One of them is wrong.

'Our estimate is the difference between the two types of tyre is between 0.3 and 0.5 seconds a lap,' said Bridgestone manager Yoshihiko Ichikawa.

'The safest tactic for those drivers on Extra soft will almost certainly be to choose three sets of tyres and to make two stops, while those using the soft compound will probably choose to make just one stop.

'Because of the changeable weather here it may be necessary to continue running on dry tyres even in damp conditions.

'Although the circuit is well drained even in hot weather it takes quite a long time for the surface to dry out completely,' he added.

'It is going to be tricky in the race because the weather is so unpredictable here,' said Ferrari technical director Ross Brawn.

'But I don't think we will see much overtaking because there is only one clean line where the rubber has been laid down.'

McLaren chief Ron Dennis said, 'Our focus has been the race and we believe that will ultimately benefit us.'