Saturday Night Fever: German GP

It's been a pretty interesting weekend so far in Germany, and there's been plenty to talk about. The driver silly season has reached its climax, and in the coming days we can expect the pieces to fall into place - don't be too surprised to see Mark Webber at Williams, Giancarlo Fisichella at Renault, and Jarno Trulli at Toyota, and the only mystery is why it's taking so long to confirm it all. Another key player in the merry-go-round, Ralf Schumacher, reappeared at Hockenheim. He's claiming that he will be back in the Williams by Hungary, if all goes well.

All that's for the future, and what concerns us most here is what will happen in Sunday's race. With four different cars filling the top four places in qualifying this continues to be a season of mystery and intrigue, despite the rather dull list of race winners. Alas Jenson Button's penalty for an engine change has dropped him out of the picture, and made it a little less interesting at the front.

Hockenheim used to be a fascinating compromise between speed for those long straights and downforce for the stadium, but the changes a couple of years ago stopped all that. It's now pretty much like any other modern circuit, although at least there are a few places where overtaking is possible, albeit often involving a little risk.

The old track placed great emphasis on tyres, and that remains the key characteristic of the place. Rears take a real battering, especially in the slippery and twisty stadium, and the high temperatures make life even tougher. Although we had a massive storm on Friday evening, race day is expected to be extremely hot.



Last year Michelin had a clear advantage, and JPM won at a canter. He was helped by the demise of Rubens Barrichello, Ralf Schumacher and Kimi Raikkonen in a first corner accident, which rather spoiled things, so it's not much of a form guide.

Juan adopted a three-stop strategy, but several of those behind went for two, and we can probably expect a similar mixture this year.



Montoya 17-33-50
Coulthard 18-42
Trulli 14-38
Alonso 18-39
Panis 15-32-49
Da Matta 17-33-50
M Schumacher 17-38-63
Button 21-43

Note that Schumacher's third stop was not planned, as he suffered a puncture. The first stop range for these guys was 14-21. Since the trend this year has been for the first stops to get ever earlier, don't be surprised if cars start coming in before lap 14, which is when Trulli kicked things off last year (remember an early safety car strung things out a little).

At that first stop teams will be in a position to react to circumstances and opt for two or three. Indeed as you can see last year some two stoppers actually came in before the three stoppers. It's not when they come in that matters, but how long they stand still and thus how much fuel goes in. Much depends on how the tyres fare in those first stints.

So who will stop first? It might just be the man on pole...



Michael Schumacher has tried so many different strategies in recent races that it's dangerous to try and pin down what he might do, but the indications are that he is running light here, and will be coming in early. The team seemed to accept his pole lap matter of factly, as if that was just the job he was supposed to do - pole was no great surprise.

It was certainly an impressive lap, and the intriguing aspect was that he was so fast in the final sector. A lot of Michelin runners went after him and looked threatening, only to lose time in that critical last section of the lap. Certainly the indications are that Bridgestone are in a much stronger position than this time last year, and the one lap performance was pretty good.

It's not hard to imagine that Barrichello is running heavier and will stop later. Is he on two and Michael on three? That seems like an obvious plan, but the German can't afford to be beaten off the line.

"We thought we could get in the mid-13s, but that was an impressive lap by Michael," says Ross Brawn. "His T3 was incredible. I don't know whether he was looking after his tyres in T1, or taking a little bit easy in T1. Maybe that left him the tyres for T3. It seems that other people started to fade a bit in T3. You've got a long corner, you've got a combination of slower and fast corners.

"I don't think anyone's tyres lasted the whole lap. It was just a question of how you used them. It was built to make us sweat because of course everyone was quick at the beginning, and luckily faded at the end. In T1 the others seemed to have a stronger tyre at the beginning of the lap."

Typically Ross isn't getting too confident: "I think we'll have a tough race tomorrow. Kimi did a very good run this morning. I haven't really seen much of Juan Pablo on his longer runs. He's been quick on one lap, but we haven't really seen what he's like a longer run."

He admits that the heat will play a crucial role: "We've been pleased with the way our tyres have performed in hot conditions. Occasionally I think Michelin have faded a little bit in hot conditions. It used to be their strength. There have been a few situations where in hot conditions Bridgestones have probably looked better. So I'm not afraid of hot conditions. Juan Pablo won the race very easily with a three stop last year, but I don't think everyone will be on three stops.

"Remember, this is a track where we weren't competitive last year, so to have done as well as we have so far is very encouraging. But I expect in the race we'll have a hard time..."

Michael himself agreed that the tyre situation is favourable: "I guess we are sorted out a little bit better than we were in Silverstone. The difference is very tight. But the point is that we have improved the tyres a lot together with Bridgestone to get them working in hot temperatures, not only for one lap, but as well for the consistency. Last year it was a big problem here, and if I look at what we can do now, we look much better."

He reckons that Bridgestone has got one over on Michelin here: "I saw some laps times that dropped off quite dramatically, and I saw some others that were a little bit more consistent. They're quick for one lap for sure, and then I think the consistency is still a little bit more in our hands."

Michael's had a touch of flu, and he made a few intriguing comments about not having approached the weekend right, giving the impression that his not entirely confident about Sunday. We shall see...



Williams has had a pretty desperate time of late, but the prospect of Juan Pablo Montoya starting from the front row is an intriguing one. He did of course dominate last year, so he could give Schumacher a headache if he can make a good start. Unfortunately new team-mate Antonio Pizzonia was not able to back him up, despite a good pre-qualifying run - he was 0.9s off, and will start 10th.

Technical director Sam Michael admitted that Schumacher's quick last sector was intriguing: "He did that in the first qualifying as well. Michael was the first car out, but his T3 time was incredible. It looks like the tyre was coming in later than the Michelin. Normally I'd say we were looking pretty good, but given Ferrari's recent form that it's pretty normal that they'd be in front. Antonio made a mess of his qualifying which makes it pretty hard for us tomorrow..."

Traction and looking after the rears is not a strong point of the FW26, but the car seems to be doing better than expected.

"It's not so bad at all here, really. We don't have any traction problems here. Every time we came here in the past, in 2002 and last year, we were fast. So it seems to suit the car."

Montoya did not do an extended run in the morning, and it could be that the team is lacking a little info. But Michael is confident.

"Every time he went out he had a red flag. But he did long runs yesterday. He was very consistent."



McLaren looked pretty good at Silverstone, and it was encouraging for all concerned to see the two MP4-19Bs on the second row, albeit helped by Button's penalty. After the disaster at the 'Ring the team desperately needs a good result in Germany, and they look pretty well set. David Coulthard is particularly pleased to be close to Kimi Raikkonen after his frustrating home race.

"In Turn 2 I had a little moment so I had to go down an extra gear to first, and I was still quickest in that sector. Without that it would have helped me at the end of the lap, where I'm not so strong.

"The new car is performing much more consistently. Despite the problems I had yesterday in practice it seems to have come together. We just have to make sure we can run consistent laps in the race. The car gives more confidence in the braking areas, and it just achieves a faster lap time.

"I would be surprised if Renault and Williams are significantly different on strategy. Ferrari might be a little bit lighter to get the pole, but we'll see."

The Renaults cannot be discounted, and Jenson's penalty means that they hog the third row. We've seen them run heavier than the opposition quite often in the recent past, so if they can get their usual good starts, and then stop a few laps later than Montoya and the McLarens, they could be heading for the podium. The team certainly seems confident in its strategy, and has been busy scrubbing tyres for the race.

As for BAR, the team had a lot of confidence coming to Germany, but it faces an uphill struggle. Jenson's penalty has dropped him to 13th, and it's worth remembering how hard he found it to make progress from a poor starting position in Spain. A Saturday morning crash didn't do Takuma Sato any favours, and he could find it hard work from eighth.

Of the rest, Panis must be a good bet for points, while the Saubers are tying their usual heavy load/two-stop ploy. Don't expect too much from Mark Webber and Jaguar - he admitted after qualifying that he's got it wrong going for the softer tyre, and is expecting a hard slog.



Finally, speed trap figures are always worth a look, although it's not always easy to interpret them. It's no surprise to see Michael fastest through the trap on the approach to the hairpin, but what is interesting is the unusually large 10kph differential between the Ferrari driver and the slowest of the frontrunners, namely Kimi Raikkonen and Jarno Trulli.



M Schumacher 331.7kph
J Button 329.2kph
J Montoya 326.5kph
R Barrichello 325.5kph
D Coulthard 325.1kph
A Pizzonia 324.9kph
T Sato 324.3kph
F Alonso 323.8kph
K Raikkonen 321.5kph
J Trulli 321.5 kph

You might think that Michael's speed through the largely twisty last section would have been achieved at the expense of straightline performance, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Whatever, it looks like Michael is well set when it comes to both passing others and defending himself...