Saturday Night Fever

Last weekend in Montreal Michael Schumacher won from sixth on the grid. This time around at Indianapolis he's on the front row, with only team mate Rubens Barrichello ahead of him. What's more, there are no Renaults anywhere nearby that might be able to spoil the party at the start. So is the US GP going to be a walk in the park for Ferrari? Possibly, but on the other hand we could still have a very intriguing afternoon...

A front row for Ferrari doesn't usually encourage too much anticipation of an exciting race, but on this occasion a fascinating contest is in prospect, at least until the Italian team reveals its hand at the first stops. In Montreal they won by doing two stops when the main opposition did three. This time the roles just could be reversed.

It's impossible to know for sure, especially as the cars have been fast all weekend, but Ferrari appears to have reverted to its more familiar strategy of running as light as possible in order to make sure that they get pole. On this occasion the team has locked out the front row, for Barrichello has managed to beat his team mate to top spot.

It's acknowledged that two stops is the most logical option for Indy, and that's certainly what most in the field have opted for. A typical split for the 73-lap race might be something like 18-27-28.

However, the big question is just how early will those Ferraris stop - and will it be early enough to signify that they are on a three-stop strategy? It's a question that perplexes even those who really should know (ie: the opposition).

Geoff Willis (BAR): "It's too early to say. We've certainly got some clues, seeing what's gone on on Friday. We don't really know what choice Ferrari has made on tyres, but we know some of their limitations, just by looking at the state of their tyres."

Pat Symonds (Renault): "We don't yet know what strategies people are on. The difference between doing one and two stops on that first stint is not always that much. You've got a very low fuel effect here, so it's not easy to judge it, and I find it very difficult to judge Ferrari, because we can't really establish their pattern. Some other people have done times that weren't quite what I expected. But without saying too much, I'm reasonably happy."

Mike Gascoyne (Toyota): "I don't know about Ferrari, but I'm sure all the Michelin runners will be doing two stops. Three stops doesn't really make sense, but maybe someone's doing it."



As so often this year Michael had the handicap of going first in pre-qualifying on the dirty track. But as in Montreal, it was still surprising to see how far down the order he tumbled as others went out and ran their laps. Indeed, he eventually ended up down in ninth. The strange thing was that Rubens, who went out immediately behind him, ended the session quickest, almost 0.7s ahead. Exactly what that meant was hard to judge - were they trying very different fuel loads?

Anyway, the result was that Michael went out to qualify knowing that he had eight cars to follow him. In similar circumstances in Canada he accepted that pole was out of his reach and opted to run heavy and sacrifice grid position for a strong race strategy. This time he seems to have done the opposite in an attempt to set a time that was hard to beat.

His lap was not perfect, and it was actually 0.3s slower than what he had achieved in the pre-qualifying session. However, it was the quickest to that point, and it held as car after car went out. Only right at the end was it beaten by final runner Barrichello, to the tune of 0.177s. The Brazilian has been quick all weekend.

The red cars will line up ahead of Takuma Sato, Jenson Button, Juan Pablo Montoya and Schumacher Jr. It's unusual for the current qualifying system to produce the sort of two by two grid that we used to see so often in the past. However, the gap from fifth to ninth - covering the two Williams drivers, Kimi Raikkonen, Olivier Panis and Fernando Alonso - is just 0.123s, so it could have been a little more varied.

The session was influenced by wind, which seemed to be at its worst for those running in the middle. At times it was blowing into the drivers' faces down the straight, but it also made life difficult in the corners. Among those affected most were Michael himself, Jenson Button and Fernando Alonso. It's interesting to note that all those who went out in the last group ended up well placed on the grid relative to their team-mates.

I asked Jenson for his thoughts on the session: "I was really surprised at how bad the car felt. I had a lot of oversteer on the lap. The team said that there was more wind than there was before, but we made a mistake, we went up with the wing, and I don't think that helped. It made the car really twitchy, and it was very snappy in the rear end. When I came in I was really disappointed with my lap, because I thought we'd be P8 or P9 or something. So to be P4, I was very happy. The good thing is we've got two cars up there."

"It was quite a tricky qualifying because it's been quite gusty,' says Geoff Willis. "I think Jenson got the worst hand, and Taku the slightly better one. Taku had a very neat and tidy lap, but I think Jenson had a bit of a struggle. It was quite difficult with a tail wind through Turn 2 and Turn 3."



The factor which has convinced some rivals that Ferrari might try three stops is tyres. On Friday blistering problems were apparent on the Bridgestone cars, although some of them apparently suffered more than Ferrari. Rear tyres take quite a pounding at Indy, mainly because of all the acceleration out of the slow stuff and the sliding around that the low downforce set-ups encourage.

Set-up changes can protect tyres to a degree, and it was interesting that Michael was apparently less happy with his car on Saturday than he had been, perhaps because of changes made with that purpose in mind.

It may be that the problems have been solved. However, if tyres do remain a concern for Ferrari and Bridgestone, then it's logical to go for three stops, split the race into four sets, and have the confidence that you can run them as hard as you need to. Starting at the front and disappearing into the distance is the general idea. Having said all that, blistering is not necessarily a disaster, and Ferrari might have decided that it can cope with two stops and the long second and third stints - of perhaps 28-29 laps apiece - that it would entail.

"If anything is going to force you to three stops, it's that," says Symonds of the blistering problem. "But if you look at their long runs on Friday, they had blistered tyres at the end of those, but their pace and consistency was not what you'd expect to see from a blistered tyre that was causing problems. I know sometimes in years gone by we've run tyres into blistering and we haven't actually realised until the pit stop that they're blistered. My feeling is that Ferrari will probably do two, but I know there are people who think otherwise..."

It could be that rivals are clutching at straws in hoping that the red cars will be stopping three times. It could be that the qualifying pace was found with a fuel load that matches the oppositions. But if they do stop three times, we could have a fascinating contest.

Everything will then depend on A) how close the others will stay to them over that first crucial stint, and B) where the Ferraris come out of the pits with regard to traffic. If they come out on a heavy load and get caught behind someone who isn't very helpful, their race could be lost within a few laps. Having said that, passing is easier here.

Of course, if another car gets ahead of one or both of the Ferraris at the start, it could make like very difficult for Ross Brawn. The always threatening Renaults are not a factor this time, as Alonso is way back in ninth and poor Trulli is starting at the back (or possibly from the pit lane). But the BARs can make pretty good starts too, and they must be a concern.

Bear in mind too that Michael (like Jenson and Ralf) is on the dirty side of the grid, and could suffer accordingly. Also, it's a long run down to that first corner, and there's enough space for a brave late braker to come charging through...

Of course, the above three paragraphs will apply even if the Ferraris are doing the same as everyone else, and stopping twice. Even on a two-stopper they are likely to be coming in earlier than their main rivals, and there's a chance that they will come out in unfavourable traffic - and get stuck while some of the BAR and Williams guys bang in quick laps.

It will also be fascinating to see what Ferrari does with the two cars at the first stops. If Rubens leads the first stint, will they play things so that Michael gets ahead?



Setting a car up for Indy is not an easy job, because of the critical trade off between straight line speed and downforce for the twisty bits. Indeed different permutations can produce identical lap times.

"It is a strange circuit, a real mixture of two completely different requirements," says Willis.

However, the significant thing is that speed on the straight will allow you to overtake at the end of it and/or protect you from being overtaken. Of course engine power plays a part, but inevitably teams will run as little wing as they dare. Bear in mind that under parc ferme rules you cannot change between qualifying and the start, although you can make limited changes at the stops.

Oddly enough the fastest car at the speed trap at the end of the straight is Felipe Massa's Sauber, at 341.9kph. Olivier Panis, Giancarlo Fisichella and Kimi Raikkonen are also in the overall top six! However, what concerns us here are the relative positions of the leading qualifiers, and thus the most likely winners.



J Montoya: 340.8kph
R Barrichello 338.3kph
M Schumacher 335.9kph
R Schumacher 335.2kph
J Button 332.0kph
T Sato 332.9kph

As you read earlier, BAR added wing to Button's car (and presumably Sato's), and these figures prove that the cars are suffering a little compared to the opposition. That means they could be vulnerable to being overtaken, and will also find it hard to pass those ahead.

Michael Schumacher also appears to be at a slight disadvantage to his team-mate - will Rubens have half a chance of dragging past him? However, it's worth noting that the wind did have an affect on some of these guys, and Michael's true top speed should perhaps have been higher.

"It's very difficult to read top speeds from qualifying," says Willis. "Because we saw that gusting conditions can make a really huge difference - maybe 6-7kph. But I think there will be a fair amount of overtaking here. Montoya looks strong, and the two Ferraris."

Another interesting piece of evidence is the list of sector times. The last sector is comprised of the corner onto the banking and then the long blast past the pits. It doesn't fully reflect the terminal speeds shown above, as they are reached at the end of the straight, far beyond the start/finish line.



M Schumacher 19.516s
R Barrichello 19.571s
R Schumacher 19.697s
J Montoya 19.782s
J Button 19.797s
T Sato 19.803s

Interestingly, the Ferraris top this table, suggesting that they will hold their own on this critical section of track, and won't be very easy to drag past. The BARs are slower than the rest in this section, but they are also among the three quickest cars in the slow stuff that makes up the middle sector - again underlining the fact that they're running more wing than some others.



Hmmm... The Ferraris may just clear off and open up a huge lead. It could turn out that they are not stopping significantly earlier than the main opposition, and thus it all becomes pretty academic. But both two and three stop strategies entail some risk, especially if they don't get out of the first corner in front. At least they will keep us guessing through the first part of the race, and even the other drivers don't have a clue.

"I really don't know what Ferrari are doing," says Button, "But we think our strategy is the best way, or we wouldn't be doing it. But they're always strong in the race, and I can't imagine them not being..."

"I don't know," says Montoya of Ferrari's plans. "We should be pretty competitive, and BAR should be quite strong. We'll see how it pans out. It's a long race here, and you've got quite good drafting down the straight. It should be pretty interesting..."