Is Verstappen taking short-term pain for a move in 2027?

“I love you guys. Can we do this for another 10 to 15 years together?” That was Max Verstappen’s radio message after clinching his first world title – yes, after that finale in Abu Dhabi 2021.

At the time, he didn’t know what the 2022 regulations would bring. Or, as then-team boss Christian Horner told this writer with a grin in the paddock: “Maybe Haas will build a rocketship! You never know.”

In reality, Verstappen’s run of titles continued for another three seasons after that infamous night in the Middle East. Granted, 2024 was already more of a struggle, with Verstappen saying in Las Vegas – while slightly tipsy after a few beers and gin and tonics – “If I’d been in that McLaren, I’d have won the championship much earlier…”

This year, Red Bull’s decline has only deepened. Or to borrow the words of a former Manchester United manager – a fellow Dutchman, coincidentally: “Eras come to an end.” In United’s case, it was the manager’s era that ended before the one he was trying to end but, at Red Bull, the situation is clear: no title in 2025. And, as Verstappen predicted in Hungary, perhaps not even another win this season (I’ll believe it when I see it! – ed).

The team that powered the golden era starting in 2021 has, at least partly, fallen apart. The exodus began on a personal level, with performance dipping shortly thereafter – as is often the case in F1.

For all Horner’s insistence that the departures of Adrian Newey, Jonathan Wheatley, Rob Marshall and others were still manageable, the cold numbers suggest otherwise. If you look at Red Bull’s team photo from 2021, only Helmut Marko, Pierre Wache, Paul Monaghan, Gianpiero Lambiase – and Verstappen himself – remain from the front row.

The Dutchman will still feature in the 2026 team photo, having shut down all speculation in Hungary – including stories based on trackers monitoring his and Toto Wolff’s yachts. “It’s time to stop all the rumours,” he smiled during a Red Bull hospitality unit media session.

Verstappen could manage only a ninth-place finish in the Hungarian Grand Prix

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images

The real question is whether Verstappen is making the right call by staying at Red Bull for another season. For now, things don’t look particularly promising. The Hungarian GP was painfully underwhelming and, while Marko and Laurent Mekies believe the Budapest-specific struggles were a one-off, it was still symbolic of Red Bull’s decline.

The damage this season is beyond repair and, for next year, everything hinges on the in-house engine project – and no one truly knows how that will pan out.

When this writer asked Verstappen what he sees in Red Bull, and where his faith in the future stems from, he replied: “I don’t need to go into too much detail, but first of all I really enjoy working with the people around me.”

By 2027, opportunities could open up for Verstappen at Mercedes, Aston Martin or even Ferrari

Loyalty is clearly part of the equation – Verstappen has just completed his 200th race with the team – but there are arguably two more significant factors at play. Firstly, the Austrian side of the Red Bull company seems to be reasserting control over the F1 team. It goes beyond replacing Horner as CEO and team principal, as Mekies has fewer responsibilities than his predecessor.

It’s creating an environment the Verstappens should like, in theory, with Max saying he can have more technical discussions with the new team boss than he ever could with Horner. Not a slight, but a sign of the new leadership direction Red Bull is taking – one in line with F1’s broader trend of promoting engineers to team principal roles.

In this context, leaving just weeks after the Horner fallout would be odd – combined with the fact that he can’t use the exit clause in his contract for 2026.

The second factor is the driver market. While a move for 2026 – despite positive noises around Mercedes’ new engine – would be a gamble, 2027 could offer Verstappen a more calculated choice. By then, he’ll have a clearer picture of the pecking order under F1’s new ruleset.

Mekies’ more focused job description means greater opportunity for tech talk with Red Bull’s star driver

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

It’s the difference between betting and choosing. And even if Mercedes has the best engine in 2026, there’s no guarantee that the works team will be the dominant force, given it will still need to beat all the customer squads. By 2027, opportunities could open up for Verstappen at Mercedes, Aston Martin or even Ferrari. And don’t forget: the exit clause will still be there to use if Red Bull indeed falls short.

Waiting one more season may be the best thing to do long-term, allowing for a more informed decision, but it potentially means enduring another year and a half of the current struggles – something that, knowing Verstappen, could become frustrating. One thing already seems certain: the soap opera surrounding his future is very likely to repeat itself next year…

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Will the Verstappen soap opera continue into next season?

Photo by: Mark Thompson / Getty Images