Jon Noble: Is Red Bull's faith in Perez bounce-back well-placed?

After a lacklustre run of results that has delivered just 28 points in the last eight races, few had expected Sergio Perez to remain in his Formula 1 seat after the summer break.

But, as has been well explained already this week, Red Bull’s conclusion that it can better support the Mexican ahead of a run of tracks where he has historically done well was enough to convince it that change was not the best option right now.

It is certainly a bold call considering how tight Red Bull’s constructors’ championship battle is with McLaren.

With Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri consistently fighting near the front, the gap between the two teams is just 42 points – which is one good race away from McLaren taking the lead.

And even on the current trajectory, with McLaren steadily chipping away at the advantage that Red Bull had opened up earlier in the year, it looks like the change at the top will come around the time of the Singapore Grand Prix.

If Red Bull gets that far into the season, and things have not worked out with Perez, then it could find itself needing to make a knee-jerk change for the final races which will pose risks – and extra pressures – later on.

But Red Bull must have weighed up the performance profile of Perez, the likelihood of improved performances and the chances of him scoring the points that he needs to deliver to help it grab another constructors’ championship title.

Perez has been given a Red Bull lifeline, despite yet more struggles

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

After all, let’s not forget that at the moment, Perez’s 131 points compared to Max Verstappen’s 277 is 32.1% of the team’s total. Last year, as Perez did all that was expected of him, his contribution with 285 points, was 33.1%...

What is different now, of course, is that the opposition is so much closer, so it is essential that Perez starts delivering because he cannot keep going on current form and Red Bull still expect to win the title.

While giving Perez a car that is better suited to him – even if it means rolling back on some upgrades – plus a support structure to help maximise his performance, have been cited as elements that make Red Bull believe he can do more, a lot is being pinned on the tracks coming up.

It is essential that Perez starts delivering – because he cannot keep going on current form and Red Bull still expect to win the title

The next run of races includes Baku, where he was victorious 12 months ago, and Monza, where he finished runner-up behind Verstappen in 2023. On paper at least, it would appear that if there are venues to feel optimistic that Perez should be able to show his best, they are coming up.

The problem with that though is there does not appear to be much of a pattern between places where Perez is closer to Verstappen and those where he struggles. In fact, getting a direct comparison between them over the past 18 months is especially tricky because all too often one of them has not been able to set a representative time – either through mechanical problems, the intervention of yellow flags or crashes like Perez had in Q1 at Silverstone and the Hungaroring.

Those venues where they have both produced representative qualifying times do not show a particular pattern. Bahrain 2023 versus 2024 was 0.138s v 0.358s. Spain was 0.574s v 0.658s, while Belgium was 0.877s v 0.606s.

Perez's Q1 crash in Hungary was just one of a number of incidents this year

Photo by: Giorgio Piola

One performance that has given Red Bull the gut feeling that somewhere inside Perez is pure speed is Japan. Last year, the Mexican ended it 0.773s adrift during a run of barren performance. This year, off the back of his strong start to the campaign as he appeared well suited to the RB20 in its launch spec, he was just 0.066s off.

But for the races coming up on the calendar, especially before the next mini break following the Singapore Grand Prix, the stats point to venues where the deficit has not been so big in the past.

While the 1.313s gap from last year’s Dutch GP owed much to tyre strategies amid changeable conditions in qualifying, the races that come up after Zandvoort were some of Perez’s best. At Monza he was 0.381s adrift, in Azerbaijan just 0.104s and in Singapore 0.137s. Repeat that form this year, and Red Bull would feel pretty bullish about Perez managing to contribute a better tally of points. In fact, last year’s season ended generally with Perez more regularly managing to get close enough to Verstappen so he was able to fulfil the support role.

In Qatar he may have been 0.979s adrift, but in the USA (0.092s) and Mexico (0.160s) the gaps looked alright. Brazil was impacted by yellow flags, but in the sprint qualifying he had ended up 0.073s back. Las Vegas was just 0.283 seconds off, while Abu Dhabi, as a result of a track limits ruling, he ended up being 0.726s off on paper.

Considering the recent disasters of Britain and Hungary, where Perez left Red Bull chiefs pulling out their hair after back-to-back Q1 crashes left him well down the order, the formbook suggests there are grounds for Red Bull to give Perez time to get back to what he has done in the past.

Perez bounced back after the summer break to return to the podium last season

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

But equally there is a big warning from last year. While the performance data showed he looked closer in the second half, the points tally was actually pretty disappointing.

Having scored 189 points up until the 2023 summer break (Verstappen had 314), his contribution was 37.6% of the total, so more than he has managed so far this season.

From Red Bull’s perspective, it hopes history repeats only the good stuff after the summer break – otherwise it could come to regret its choice

But over the second half of the season (the calendar was slightly different but Japan and Baku results are not totally dissimilar), he added just 96 points more compared to Verstappen’s 261. The second half contribution works out at 26.9%.

From Red Bull’s perspective, it hopes history repeats only the good stuff after the summer break – otherwise it could come to regret its choice if McLaren seizes the opportunity to grab the constructors’ crown.

Will Perez leave his early season form behind him and play his part in a Red Bull constructors' triumph?

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool