Is Leclerc really Vettel's worst nightmare?

The last time Sebastian Vettel entered a new season with a highly-rated young newcomer alongside him, he left the team where he had been established at the end of the year. While Vettel claimed he was "not running away from anything" when he chose to depart Red Bull in 2014, it was clear to others in Formula 1 - including his own team boss, Christian Horner - that his drubbing by Daniel Ricciardo after winning four titles in a row had played a part.

That is why so many people are now drawing parallels between that season and this one, which will mark Vettel's fifth at Ferrari since exiting Red Bull and kicks off next weekend with Charles Leclerc alongside him at the Maranello team. The challenge Leclerc could pose Vettel is significant. It's one that Vettel is not underestimating but plenty have been guilty of over-egging.

In some ways, Leclerc is indeed Vettel's worst nightmare. He's the reason people are asking if Vettel will be forced out of Ferrari, like many believe Ricciardo did to him at Red Bull.

"It's going to be a big year for Sebastian," said 2009 world champion Jenson Button last month in his new role as a Sky Sports F1 pundit. "When Daniel came into Red Bull he found it difficult. Daniel put him under a lot of pressure and actually outperformed him. I think if Charles can do that this year it's a tough decision of where Sebastian is going to go for the future and what he's going to do."

Vettel's deal runs until 2020 and he has played down any expectation of an early Ferrari exit, but he acknowledges that the threat Leclerc poses is very real. Do not be fooled by the compliments being passed between them. Yes, Leclerc is "a good kid", and yes, Vettel is "a very nice guy", but this will not be a pally relationship.

F1 is too competitive and the stakes are too high for that to be the case. That's why Vettel says he will treat Leclerc like a "full rival" this season.

"He's in the seat for a reason, so I've got to take it very seriously," says Vettel. "You always have a close rivalry with your team-mate, but priority number one is to bring the team forward.

"I've been around for a bit longer compared to him so it's different things that maybe he will have on his plate in the beginning, but he's a nice kid. I hope that, in a positive way, you [the media] leave him alone and let him do his job. I'm certain he will be quick enough and put me under pressure."

There is no reason that cannot manifest itself positively. Horner reckons Vettel had Kimi Raikkonen "pretty easily covered" and "may now find a new level" against Leclerc, as it could be "good for him to be pushed even harder".

Ferrari will undoubtedly hope Leclerc lights a fire under Vettel's backside. There were too many mistakes last season for a driver of his calibre and while Ferrari must shoulder some of the blame, Vettel did underperform. That cannot happen this year, particularly given the early promise shown by the team's 2019 challenger, the SF90, which looked the pick of the bunch in pre-season testing.

"I can't hide that I'm pushing to be as ready as possible for the first race. If Mattia has the problem to manage two quick drivers, then it's a good sign for me" Charles Leclerc

He will also benefit from transformative leadership within Ferrari. Under Mattia Binotto, Vettel may get the arm-around-the-shoulder treatment that worked so effectively when he was pulling up trees at Red Bull.

Despite Vettel's clear performance advantage across four years of being paired with Raikkonen, Ferrari always pussyfooted around team orders. It seemed scared to implement instructions that were clearly necessary, often to its detriment. Binotto has drawn a clear line in the sand early on, which means Vettel should start the season confident that he will not be undermined by the team in a way he was impacted before.

"I think that it's good as well for Ferrari," says Binotto. "When you've got your intentions clear from the start, you do not make mistakes when you have an ambiguous situation. If there is any ambiguous situation at the start of the season, Sebastian is the one who has got more experience, he has been with us many years, he has already won championships - so he is our champion."

But that does not mean Leclerc will be held back, as such. Ferrari needs him to be on top form, as that will maximise its points return, keep Vettel on his toes and give it more skin in the game.

If Leclerc can establish himself as a title contender in his first season, then that could be great for everyone. It may bring other problems, but that's something Binotto's quite keen to have to manage.

That suggests that even though Ferrari wants to ease Leclerc into the pressure-cooker of a title fight, the expectation is still that he will rise to the occasion eventually. Binotto hopes to have the "problem" of managing two top-line drivers and Leclerc is equally hopeful he will have that chance.

"Obviously, I will be happy if I get used to this car as quickly as possible and I'm straight on the pace," Leclerc says. "I'm realistic too. It's only my second season in F1 and I have a lot to learn. There's a long road ahead.

"But I can't hide that I'm pushing to be as ready as possible for the first race. If Mattia has the problem to manage two quick drivers, then it's a good sign for me."

The key question will be how quickly Leclerc slots in. He is known to Ferrari through his place in its young driver programme and testing experience, and by extension has knowledge of the team. That is undoubtedly a benefit, but Vettel is years ahead - literally - in terms of his understanding of how to extract the maximum from Ferrari and the refinement of his craft. And Leclerc knows that.

"It's a top team, there are procedures that are quite different to the team I was in before," he says. "There's a bit of adaptation.

"Seb is in a bit of a different situation at the moment, [as] he knows a lot of people in the team after spending some years with them. It's pretty new to me, even if I know the people quite well because I was in the FDA before.

"I still need to know and understand which person does what. That takes time. In terms of driver feedback, Seb is very strong with that. He has very good technical knowledge, so on that I can definitely improve but I'm pushing massively. I've spent the past five or six weeks in the factory to try to understand the systems a bit more, which I think was one of my weak points last year."

"It's very exciting for him, to drive the car of his dreams. I feel a little bit the same still" Sebastian Vettel

Leclerc will be relentless in his pursuit to improve and grasp his Ferrari opportunity, which has come sooner than he or any of his backers will ever have imagined. While the rivalry with Vettel will be genuine, and intense, this does not have the making of a Lewis Hamilton-Fernando Alonso kind of fallout. It's more likely that a very competitive partnership will bubble away and occasionally flare up.

"I'm not overcomplicating these things," says Vettel. "I'm taking it quite straightforward. I'm not the one starting any problems, I don't expect Charles to start any problem."

While Vettel faces a greater challenge than ever at Ferrari, he also appears much happier in the early moments of the team's Binotto-led era.

The SF90 seems to be to Vettel's liking, and that's important. His incompatibility with the 2014 Red Bull was one of the reasons he had such a poor season against Ricciardo, after all. And there is no ill-feeling between Vettel and Leclerc, no hint at a frosty relationship that could crack in spectacular fashion later in the year. In fact, Vettel seems to be genuinely enthusiastic for his young team-mate.

"It's very exciting for him, to drive the car of his dreams," he says. "I feel still a little bit the same."

This all combines to explain why Vettel says he is looking forward to the challenge ahead of him, rather than dreading it. That may well change if Vettel's fifth bid for a world title with Ferrari fails like the last one - if Ferrari's challenge is up to the task, and if the team is ready to go the distance.

The signs from pre-season are positive, but those conditions may well prove to be more significant for Vettel than any other. He is good enough that, if the circumstances come together, he can overcome Ferrari's hotshot rookie.

If the stars align differently, Leclerc will become one of many factors for Vettel to overcome in 2019. And if Vettel cannot do that, maybe history will repeat itself after all.