Inside Renault and Honda's fight for Red Bull

Will Red Bull Racing take the plunge and go with Honda in 2019, or will it stick with Renault and extend what has been a rocky relationship over the past dozen seasons?

That's a question that's been in the air ever since Honda's move to Toro Rosso was confirmed last September.

From the start, it was abundantly clear that Honda was auditioning for an eventual move to Toro Rosso's big brother - the team with which it could target world championships.

Red Bull's engine decision has wider significance, in that it will have some influence on whether Daniel Ricciardo stays on or is tempted elsewhere. It's also an important one too for Liberty and Formula 1.

Amid complaints about boring races it's easy to overlook the fact that the series currently has three mega teams competing for race wins, and that is something to be celebrated and enjoyed. As F1 moves towards 2021 the last thing it needs is for Red Bull to drop off the lead group should a move to Honda not work out. Clearly it is a team built for winning, and it can't afford to get this wrong.

Trading engine deals between Toro Rosso and McLaren was a brilliant strategic move by Dietrich Mateschitz, Helmut Marko and Christian Horner. With Toro Rosso they had nothing to lose - the team is there to train drivers, not win races, so why not use it to build a relationship with Honda and, if it worked out, prepare to switch Red Bull? And with no Renault engine bill to pay it was also a massive commercial boost for Toro Rosso.

For the first time in many years Red Bull now has a clear engine choice for 2019, and having options on the table is always handy. It has also helped Horner to put even more pressure on Renault to get on with the job - not that it needed any extra push, with its own works team to consider and McLaren now added to the mix.

"They have all the information, I see absolutely no reason to delay any further. And frankly, we will not be able to maintain the offer for very long" Cyril Abiteboul

Red Bull's Honda-potential study began from the first day Toro Rosso team principal Franz Tost visited Japan last year, and it continued into winter testing and on into this season.

The Canadian Grand Prix was an important signpost, as it was the venue for a major Honda upgrade and therefore a clear demonstration of where the firm is going. And with perfect timing it was also the race where Renault was bringing a new spec.

Montreal was just a snapshot in time, but an important one. With all the knowledge now gathered about Honda by Toro Rosso, and its own years of experience with Renault, Red Bull now has to extrapolate to March 2019, and judge how the two marques will compare at the start of next season.

It then has to consider the potential development curve through the course of that year, and on to the end of 2020. Inevitably there's some crystal ball gazing involved, but there's also a lot of hard data to consider.

"We're going to take away whatever information from this weekend," Horner said in Canada. "And probably the French GP, and come to a conclusion following that.

"We've had a long and successful relationship with Renault that's culminated in eight world championships, 151 podiums, and 57 grand prix victories.

"Obviously the hybrid era has been one of frustration for us. [But] engines are converging. We'll be taking all of that into account in the choices that we make."

Red Bull and Renault have enjoyed a strained relationship at times, and in the early days of the hybrid era - with the run of four Sebastian Vettel titles quickly fading in the memory - it seemed impossible that they could continue as partners. Badging the engine as a TAG Heuer was one of the compromises that kept them together.

"We're like an old married couple in many respects, we know each other inside out," said Horner. "They've got a new girlfriend in their own team these days!

"Cyril [Abiteboul] has made it very clear that Renault are keen to continue, which is encouraging, but whatever conclusion we reach will be in the interests of what gives us the most competitive on-track performance, starting next year."

Intriguingly, earlier this year Horner talked about the summer break as the time for a decision, and so it was a surprise when that suddenly became late June, just in time for Red Bull's home race in Austria. It was felt that Canada/France would provide enough info about the new specifications, and nothing would change in the run of races that followed.

"Obviously the design team are keen to know, both engine manufacturers are keen to know," Horner added. "I don't think we'll have any more information in two months' time than we do now. We're grateful to have a choice for the first time in a very long time.

"Because it's such a big decision for the company, we want to make absolutely sure it's the right one, and of course everything that Renault have done will be taken into account."

There's a financial angle too. Red Bull has been paying for the Renault supply all these years, and the Honda deal will not only be free but almost certainly come with some extra finance. The TAG Heuer money that currently subsidises the Renault bills can be retained, even if the watch company loses its engine badging deal. It's a win-win, although Horner played that down.

"The commercial aspect is secondary to performance," he said. "Because obviously the engine is badged as something else other than a Renault at the moment. Our pure focus on the decision is based on performance."

Meanwhile, Abiteboul has been piling the pressure on, and has long pointed to the May 15 date in the FIA regulations for confirming engine partners. That is really intended for situations where a new team is looking for an engine and getting no joy, and the FIA can force someone to supply. Red Bull never regarded it as a significant deadline.

"The commercial aspect is secondary to performance - our pure focus on the decision is based on performance" Christian Horner

The direct swap between McLaren and Toro Rosso was not confirmed until September 2017, but that made no difference to Renault's production schedules - it always had two customers on its books.

This time around it wants to know whether it has to start making parts for one or two customers. There are commercial implications too, as Renault will lose the money that Red Bull has been pumping in. It wants an answer earlier than Red Bull is planning to give one.

"I guess they have all the information that they need now," Abiteboul said in Canada. "I don't see why they are going to further delay the decision, as far as we're concerned. Past a certain date we will not be in a position to maintain the offer that we've made.

"It's very clear. As per the regulations, it was May 15, and then we accepted to extend that a little bit on the back of 12 years of good collaboration. But past a certain point, the offer we made, and that they requested, will not stand.

"As far I'm concerned it was Montreal that they wanted to wait for, our new spec, Honda's new spec. They have all the information, I see absolutely no reason to delay that any further. And frankly, we will not be able to maintain the offer for very long."

Abiteboul is adamant that the decision has to be made before the French GP - at least a week before the Austrian race deadline Red Bull has cited.

"I don't think by this point the offer will stand," Abiteboul continued. "It's simply because we need to source the components. We're already behind, and it's Renault deciding the timing, and not Red Bull.

"Usually we speak after a weekend - we don't do that on Sunday evening, with all the emotions - we let all the testosterone go down a little bit, and we will discuss. But we will not be able to wait for the sort of timing that they've mentioned."

It's obvious that Renault wants to keep Red Bull, and Abiteboul was in full sales pitch mode in Montreal, even saying that Red Bull can win the world championship in the next two years if it stays on board.

"We're trying hard," he said. "But that must be under conditions that are acceptable to us, and starting with the timing. I don't want to start mentioning a date, or otherwise you'll start calling me that day. I have a date, they know the day, but we are not talking about Austria."

When asked about Abiteboul's desire for an earlier answer, Marko's reply was pretty straightforward.

"He won't get it," he said. "I can't tell you anything until Austria. We will have facts which we are waiting for, and we want to be prepared to make the right decision, and when we do, have enough time for next season. We want to win, that's the priority. Winning is the name of the game."

Now it's a question of studying the data: "It's the bank, and we'll have a look at it, and that's why we won't come to a decision until Austria."

"I can only talk positively about Honda. There's a long way to go to 2019, there's still some time, and I'm convinced that Honda will go in the right direction" Franz Tost

Toro Rosso made a crucial call in Montreal. For qualifying, Pierre Gasly had to go back to an old spec engine as a precaution, but on Saturday night it was decided to take another new spec and therefore grid penalties. That ensured that both Toro Rosso cars were available to gather priceless data on the latest engine over a race distance. Given that Brendon Hartley was wiped out on the first lap, it was a prescient move.

This week Marko, Horner, Adrian Newey and others in the loop will be studying that information, and downloading all they possibly can from Tost.

They're looking at things such as qualifying speed traces between the Max Verstappen and Hartley cars in Canada, which can tell you a lot more than ultimate lap time, and if that paints Honda in a favourable light at a track where power counts for a lot.

So what will they learn? Certainly Abiteboul was pleased with the latest Renault upgrade, which ran reliably on all six cars.

"I stopped breathing for a moment when I saw [Fernando] Alonso complaining about his ERS," says Abiteboul. "But I understand it was another problem. So it was good, a very interesting introduction of spec B.

"We see from top speed we've been very competitive. We also see a bit of a step from Honda. But frankly we see much more from the dyno, because after we've built the engine it goes directly onto our dyno - [for] all six engines we've got very strict procedures. So we know all the details, all the DNA, all the characteristics of every single engine that comes out of the factory.

"We have a perfect mapping of that, and we know exactly what they are providing, and they are providing what we advertised they would provide a few weeks if not a few months ago.

"I was secretly hoping that Red Bull would have the pace to win. They were very close to that, but not quite there. We have more to come, and they could have more to come from the fuel."

That's another intriguing aspect to the story. Red Bull uses Exxon/Mobil, while Renault and (for the moment) McLaren are with BP/Castrol. Earlier this year, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff pinpointed that as a negative for Red Bull, as the majority of dyno running would obviously be done on the fuel used by the works team.

"That's something that's clear," said Abiteboul. "We can guarantee an equity of performance of what is in our control, which is hardware and software. Not anything other than that, like fuel, because they elected for strategic and commercial reasons to go for their own partner, which we appreciate, and we support by homologating their product.

"I'm sure Exxon has the ability and capacity to catch up, but they are a bit behind. The installation is also a little bit different. That's why there are small discrepancies, and I accept that. That's the sort of thing where clearly it would be better [for them] if they go to Honda, that's why I understand the hesitation, but that decision has to come extremely quickly now."

So what of Honda? Tost and Toro Rosso technical director James Key have had nothing but good things to say since the start of the relationship, and for a team that was previously a second string customer to be working directly with a huge manufacturer has been revelatory.

There have been some failures, but nothing on the scale seen over the three years with McLaren. There have also been some solidly impressive performances on track, most notably Gasly's fourth place in Bahrain. There's nothing that suggests that the team would have been any better off had it stuck with Renault.

"Honda made the progress which we expected," Tost said of the Montreal upgrade. "I'm more than happy with the performance of the engine. The time we were losing was not on the straight. We lost in corner one, corner two sometimes.

"I can only talk positively about Honda. Up to now, the complete programme which we discussed in November last year has been realised, from a reliability point of view, and from the performance increase. There's a long way to go to 2019, there's still some time, and I'm convinced that Honda will go in the right direction."

So what will Red Bull do? Tost's enthusiasm is clear, but perhaps the biggest clue came back in April after Gasly's performance in Bahrain. There's a palpable enthusiasm and momentum for change in the camp, if the numbers make sense. Just imagine the full resources a potential of Red Bull Technology-Honda hook up would provide, with a proper two-way flow of infomation.

Even if a Honda move goes wrong, Red Bull would only have two years before getting another reset chance

"Before we did the decision to work with Honda, we believed it could be a successful package, once they showed us what they were planning to do," Marko said back then. "When the time is right, we'll do our decision. There's a bigger picture which we have to look at. It's going in the right direction, and you journalists should know that we are brave..."

Whatever decision Red Bull takes, it will not commit beyond 2020. After that all bets are off with the arrival of the new engine rules, and Red Bull could have even more options - with Porsche and Aston Martin potentially in the mix.

"I think 2021 is in the ether," said Horner. "There's not much point in talking about '21 until we know what it consists of. It's a whole different ball game. First of all we need to understand exactly what are the regulations."

So even if a Honda move goes wrong, Red Bull would only have to stomach it for two years before getting another chance to hit the reset button. That doesn't sound like too painful a gamble for a team approaching half a decade since its domination ended, and adamant that the primary cause of that fall is Renault.