How tyre strategy limbo dashed Stroll's victory hopes in Turkey

Had the 2020 Turkish Grand Prix played out differently, and had polesitter Lance Stroll defied his critics with a brilliant maiden F1 victory, this writer would have been marginally disappointed if Autosport magazine's headline had neglected to opt for "A Stroll in the Park". Unfortunately, we never got the chance to debate that.

Stroll, having claimed a first pole for a Canadian driver since Jacques Villeneuve at the 1997 European Grand Prix, led almost the entirety of the race's first two-thirds of runtime.

Then, as the Turkish GP swung into a tyre purgatory, he stood ahead of a three-pronged fork in the road. He could either stay out on his worn-down intermediate tyres, pit for fresh inters, or take the mother of all gambles and bolt on a set of slick tyres.

The engineers perched upon the 10 pitwalls were waiting for a clear transition point to slick tyres, but the much-discussed resurfacing of the Istanbul Park circuit remained too slippery to consider making the full-slick gamble.

Stroll's engineer Brad Joyce flagged that the team was looking to bring him in, and his reply of "why, why, why?" was his protestation. Joyce eventually conceded, but at the end of the lap Stroll relinquished the lead and came in for fresh inters. The graining on the tyres had become too much, thus driver acquiesced to team's request.

It seemed like the lowest-risk strategy at the time. Stroll and team-mate Sergio Perez were losing a bundle of time to the hard-charging Lewis Hamilton, who was looking to cement his seventh F1 title with one of his most spectacular drives yet, and Racing Point had to make a call. The likes of Daniel Ricciardo and Charles Leclerc had made the switch to a second set of inters earlier and had immediately looked competitive, so it looked like the best call for Stroll to make.

Only, it didn't work.

Stroll pitted, collected fresh inters, and within a couple of laps reported some heavy graining to the front tyres. Again.

However 24 hours after the Turkish GP had finished, a Racing Point team statement revealed that after receiving Stroll's car back from parc ferme it discovered previously unseen damage to the underside of his front wing. One of the strakes under the wing had come loose and caused a blockage that resulted in "a significant loss of front downforce" which "contributed to increased graining levels".

Thus began Stroll's dramatic fall from grace. At the start of the race, he had converted his pole position into a 10-second lead, but his pace on the intermediate tyres slowly began to fade as Stroll's wounded car was eating through the rubber at a much faster rate than those behind, including Perez.

Of course, Perez has a reputation of being F1's tyre whisperer, able to take a left-field strategy and turn it into a spectacular result courtesy of his considerate driving style. It served him well in the early Pirelli days when the tyres were more akin to a wheel of brie, and his performance on the almost-slick intermediates at Turkey showed that the old skills hadn't left. Had Stroll not pitted for a second time, would he have been able to repeat the feat and keep two Racing Points on the podium?

It's admittedly hard to make that case. Stroll's tyres were a lap older than Perez's, who mused post-race that another lap on his tyres would have been one too many. While Stroll is far better than many give him credit for, he doesn't quite have that Perezian sensitivity with his tyres, and with his pace already plummeting as he hit the graining phase he was caught in a no-win situation with damage to his front wing not helping his cause.

"It's just frustrating that you're in the lead by 10 seconds, and then all of a sudden you finish ninth. I don't understand how that happens. I mean I do, it's graining, but we just need to look into why it hit me so much harder than the other car" Lance Stroll

With the first set of intermediates introduced when the track was wet, the tyres came up to temperature more gradually, but Stroll's second set were bolted on when the track was drying out. The surface was getting hotter much more quickly, perhaps owing to a set-up more accustomed to the wetter conditions, which suggests that the tyres were being overworked without enjoying a proper heat cycle.

"I don't know what happened, I don't understand," a dejected Stroll said after the race. "We had so much graining on the first set of intermediates. We decided to pit, we were losing seconds a lap. I just don't know where that graining came from, it just happened instantly. It grained again, massive graining, and no pace.

"It's just frustrating that you're in the lead by 10 seconds, and then all of a sudden you finish ninth. I don't understand how that happens. I mean I do, it's graining, but we just need to look into why it hit me so much harder than the other car."

By the time Hamilton and Perez completed the race and pulled into the pitlane at the end, the amount of wear to their tyres was conspicuously high. The two had almost worn their inters down to slicks, suggesting that at surface level it would have been possible to run the untreaded options at some point in the race.

PLUS: How Hamilton's critical changes decided a Turkish GP "that wasn't his race to win"

However, amid the tricky conditions, the issue seemed to be one of temperature rather than construction; although Sky F1 commentator Martin Brundle speculated that if a driver could fire up a set of slick tyres, they'd be en route to a very good result - but nobody dared take the risk.

While Hamilton and Perez persisted with the ageing inters, the temperatures were good. With no bellwether further down the field, sticking to their guns was the most prudent solution.

"I think I went through the real rough phase of the graining of the tyre and then it started to come back," Hamilton recalled post-race. "The track was drying in areas and I was improving my driving lines the whole way through the race.

"Then I started to pick up pace, and then Seb [Vettel] pitted and for me I knew that that wasn't the right choice, personally, so I just started to stay out and as the tyres got more and more slick, that's exactly what you needed.

"Fortunately because it was the intermediate tyre, it holds temperature. So if I went out on new slicks, I wouldn't have made it round - so [staying out] was the best decision."

Despite the low-grip conditions throughout the weekend, Pirelli elected to put the tyre pressures up by 1psi to counteract any heavy loads throughout the weekend. It sounds counterintuitive, as raising pressures would reduce contact patch and hence surface grip, but increasing the pressure also helps to improve tyre warm-up.

With many struggling to get the tyres within the optimal temperature window, adding an extra squirt or two of air within would help shepherd the teams closer to that ideal range.

While the added pressures were definitely helpful on the wet tyre at the start, the tyres will then begin to overheat more easily - which usually results in the driver going off-line to quench the tyres with standing water.

Over time, this helped to change the narrative of the race; the teams that could fire up their tyres more easily - namely, the Racing Points and Red Bulls, then began to struggle. By comparison, Mercedes and Ferrari struggled in qualifying to get the tyres in the window for a single fast lap, but the race came to them over time as the tyre temperature began to build.

Had the circuit stayed at a relatively static level of saturation, Stroll might have had a chance at further cracking open his lead and marching to an irrepressible victory. Unfortunately for him, his hopes died as the track dried

And while Perez was perhaps a little lucky to hang onto second at the end, Stroll was left to rue what could have been. Is there a possible scenario where he could have taken his maiden F1 victory on Sunday? Well, there's arguably two.

The first would require a raindance. There were threats of rain throughout the race, and the official data suggested a 60% chance of precipitation. True to form, that didn't materialise; had the circuit stayed at a relatively static level of saturation, Stroll might have had a chance at further cracking open his lead and marching to an irrepressible victory. Unfortunately for him, his hopes died as the track dried.

The second is more of a long-shot and would require Stroll to exercise a masterclass in car control. Every single person in the pitlane was waiting for someone to put on a pair of slicks and see what would happen - but unfortunately, not even any of the backmarkers dared to bolt on the soft tyre.

Had Racing Point felt even more brave, perhaps taking charge of the situation and splitting their strategies (well, even more diametrically opposed as the half-split it eventually opted for) would have yielded a fortune. Or cost one.

After all, Racing Point is currently embroiled in a battle with Renault and McLaren in the battle for third in the constructors' championship - a very lucrative battle worth millions. So it's perhaps not a surprise that nobody wanted to be a hero and tackle the Istanbul Grease Pan on a set of slicks.