How the brutality of F1's new class system will hit in 2023

Red Bull’s dominance of Formula 1 this year poses a clear risk of being a turn-off for those who think there is no point tuning in on a Sunday to watch the same team win. While we may well be set for a pretty one-sided affair when it comes to the F1 championship battle, what is important not to overlook is that elsewhere the grid has never looked as competitive as it does right now. In fact, there appear to be signs of a significant revolution in which F1 has moved from a clear class system of frontrunners, a midfield and backmarkers.

Now, that has all been wiped away and there is literally nothing that separates a bunch of squads from a weekend of Q3 and points joy to one of Q1 exit misery. The swings of positions that come from finding a couple of tenths with the latest upgrade, or the pain that is triggered from a lock-up on a final qualifying lap, are extreme and brutal for those on the losing end. There are probably just four teams – Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari and Aston Martin - that don’t have to worry too much about this potential to be Q1 chumps. For the rest, every weekend is a case of walking that tightrope.

As Haas driver Nico Hulkenberg remarked last weekend: there are no longer any tail-end Charlies in F1.

“I kind of feel you have the top four teams or five, I don't know with Alpine, but then the midfield is five teams,” he explained. “So, there's no backmarkers anymore. We're all like in one bubble pretty much, within a couple of tenths. So you know, a small mistake can have a huge consequence. But if it's good, vice versa, you find yourself right at the top 10. It's fun. So competitive.”

The statistics certainly seem to bear out Hulkenberg’s assessment that things have closed up between the front and the back of the grid.

Looking at the Q1 order from last weekend, the entire field was covered by 1.330 seconds. That spread, which gives a good indication of how competitive the grid is as a whole, has certainly come down a lot. Taking a look at the gaps between the fastest and slowest cars in Q1 at the Australian Grand Prix, here is how things have developed over the last 10 events.

2023: 1.330 seconds
2022: 2.792 seconds
2019: 4.050 seconds (Williams’ Robert Kubica, with team-mate George Russell 2.343 seconds adrift)
2018: 2.471 seconds
2017: 1.907 seconds
2016: 4.291 seconds
2015: 3.451 seconds
2014: 6.218 seconds
2013: 7.246 seconds
2012: 7.461 seconds

Only 1.330s split top to bottom in Q1 at the Australian GP

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

This isn’t a perfect data set to judge the gaps, as sometimes extreme circumstances can hinder those cars right at the back of the field. But there is no denying the trend. Or that the grid has never looked as compact as it does now.

Going back to the extremes of a decade ago, for a host of teams stuck in Q1, there was very little prospect of them ever making it through to the second phase of qualifying – let alone Q3. Even a couple of tenths of performance would not have been enough to lift them much further into the midfield, because they were seconds off.

Last weekend, Oscar Piastri was just 1.133 seconds off Verstappen as he got booted out in Q1, and three tenths of a second (the kind of swing that is possible due to nailing set-up, tech upgrades and eliminating mistakes) would have put him close to the top 10. What it all means is that there really is no hiding for teams right now, and result swings are getting exaggerated by very small performance elements.

"Every point this year is worth a lot more than it was last year. In theory, the first eight places are taken then there is only ninth and 10th. It can carry a lot of weight" Gunther Steiner

If a team gets things wrong on the weekend, it can find itself dumped right to the rear of the grid with little prospect of recovery as DRS trains make it so hard to make up ground. And, if you fall off the back of a DRS train ahead, then it is pretty much game over for the afternoon.

It is these dramatic swings that make it essential for teams to adopt a new mindset that having a weekend where you qualify 18th and come home 14th because you slipped up at some point does not mean the end of the world. It is now part and parcel of a standard F1 season.

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Equally, with the top eight positions pretty much locked out in a regular race, the scrap for those final points-paying positions is going to be even more intense than ever. Every single point is likely to count when it comes to constructors’ championship positions at the end of the year. It is little wonder that Haas was so willing to throw itself into protest after the Australian Grand Prix, over what would have been a single position – worth two points – in its belief that Hulkenberg had got in front of McLaren’s Lando Norris at the abandoned second restart.

Steiner's Haas squad protested the Australian GP result in pursuit of two more points - which could prove vital by the end of the year

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

Speaking earlier in the Australia weekend, Haas boss Gunther Steiner was clear that the game had changed for the midfield teams this year: “Every point this year is worth a lot more than it was last year, I can tell you that much. In theory, the way it is now, the first eight places are taken. Then, there are only ninth and 10th which are two points and one point. It can carry a lot of weight.”

What this means is that small details are going to matter much more over the balance of the season. Getting that one or two tenths from an upgrade, nailing tyre set-up to get the Pirellis in the right operating window and delivering an error-free lap in qualifying, and producing bulletproof reliability are all elements in whether a team comes away from a weekend in the points, or stuck at the back.

For fans at home watching, that battle behind the top four (and maybe five if Alpine can find its consistency), delivers a level of unpredictability that we have not seen in F1 for a while. And is proof that the 2023 F1 season still has a ton of entertainment to deliver – even if it ends up as a one-team walkover at the front.

The battle behind the frontrunners is set to be decided by fine margins in 2023

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images