How Spa showed exactly why Red Bull must ditch Perez in its crunch Monday meeting

Did Alex Albon's early braking for Les Combes, late in Q2 at the Belgian Grand Prix, save Sergio Perez's Red Bull and Formula 1 career? Perhaps it was the time the Williams driver shipped at Pouhon too that cost that 0.003s difference come the lap’s end, where Perez progressed and Albon was eliminated in 11th.

From his narrow escape, Perez went on to impress many by qualifying third with only used intermediates left to deploy in Q3. That was only impressive in isolation, however.

Had Perez done what Max Verstappen showed was possible with Red Bull’s RB20 masterpiece turned problem child (delete whichever cliche you hate more) in getting through qualifying to that point on aging inters, Perez wouldn’t have been beaten to ‘pole’ by a slower Ferrari.

For all the excitement and Perez’s bombastic “it's not like I've forgot how to drive” comment last Saturday, Red Bull won’t have forgotten that there are no points for F1 qualifying, and how it had two cars that had the potential to win at Spa and neither did.

Verstappen’s race-winning potential disappeared when his then-new Honda power unit’s electrical issue seven weeks earlier in Canada FP2 did for an internal combustion engine. That and how the compressing field and an increasing dirty air problem meant a third successive sensational Spa fightback wasn’t possible this time.

But he still topped qualifying for a fourth year in a row here. Perez not only failed to do that, but he potentially doomed his time with Red Bull by failing to win from his inherited front row.

Perez ended his recent qualifying slump to put himself second on the grid with only used inters for Q3 - but Verstappen had shown what was possible in the previous sessions

Photo by: Erik Junius

Right now, Christian Horner, Helmut Marko and co are meeting at Red Bull’s sprawling industrial estate-turned-‘campus’ base in Milton Keynes. Alone, that’s not unusual. Every team is cramming in as much work as possible before the two-week summer shutdown mandated by the rules kicks off next Monday.

But Red Bull had signposted that it would decide on whether or not to keep Perez – 2025 contract carrot long meaningless – over the 2024 summer break and, by extension, either promote Daniel Ricciardo back to its main team or possibly ditch him altogether. The results of an upcoming Imola filming day with the Australian and Liam Lawson sampling the 2022 AlphaTauri are set to be watched closely.

Marko’s “we'll discuss the best way to achieve [constructors’ championship success] on Monday” and Horner’s “he's acutely aware as anybody that we need both cars performing” comments just amped up the expectation of the day for Perez.

Red Bull, with all its data, chose not to tell reporters about a car problem on this post-race. Instead, Marko said Perez “completely collapsed”

We know how much pressure is riding on the outcome of their decision-making for the Mexican driver because of the understanding that Red Bull can effectively ditch his contract due to the 100-point break clause coming into effect from post-Spa.

That Perez had arrived there 141 points behind Verstappen and only able to score 26 showed the scale of his task to save his drive. But what happened in the race on Sunday showed why twisting is now overwhelmingly the better option for Red Bull.

Immediately, Perez got beaten and almost bullied out of second place off the line by Lewis Hamilton’s monster start from third. From there he couldn’t keep up with the eventually winning Mercedes, nor Ferrari polesitter Charles Leclerc and got overcome by Oscar Piastri, George Russell, Verstappen (from 11th on the grid), Lando Norris and Carlos Sainz.

There is a mitigating circumstance of sorts in that Perez’s lowly 19th place in the post-Raidillon race speed trap suggests his complaint of being “very slow on straights” had merit. This could be explained by a battery deployment issue.

But at the same time, better traction with tyre treatment in a tricky tyre management race can lead to big straightline speed discrepancies. Here it’s worth recalling Lance Stroll’s angst with Aston Martin in Japan (and again on Sunday).

Perez was pushed back to eighth in the race before making a free stop to gain fastest lap. He would finish seventh after Russell's DSQ

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Red Bull, with all its data, chose not to tell reporters about a car problem on this post-race. Instead, Marko said Perez “completely collapsed”. Given the importance of optics in F1, this is much more telling.

Red Bull could yet give Perez another reprieve in its post-Spa choice. He successfully got the fastest lap bonus point last weekend and his “great team player” factor, per Horner, is valued inside the team.

But at its current rate of scoring (averaging 30 per round versus 20 since Miami and with 42 points currently separating the two teams), McLaren is now on course to catch Red Bull in the constructors’ championship in Singapore – if nothing else changes to that point.

While Red Bull faces the tricky task of delivering the performance step Verstappen was expecting with the Budapest upgrades that ultimately underwhelmed the world champion, McLaren is expecting a stream of developments to come for the rest of the year. It’s even delicately working to try and avoid the floor issues that have hampered other teams.

That raises expectations of a 2021-style title battle coming next year - and 2021 is another important point regarding to choice to keep Perez – because him missing a critical 15% of Valtteri Bottas’s points that year cost Red Bull the constructors’ crown that is once again in peril in 2024. That prestige goes along with millions in prize money and important bonuses to team staff.

For F1, there are secondary upsides in Verstappen getting a team-mate that can run him closer. First, it might provoke him to even higher levels. Secondly, if the team’s previously dominant position were to be restored, there might be some intra-team competition a la Nico Rosberg versus Hamilton. That kept F1 interesting early Mercedes’ all-conquering run a decade ago.

All eyes are on Milton Keynes. Several famous F1 stories are about to have their tales decided.

Red Bull faces a stronger challenge from rival teams, and the struggles for Verstappen's team-mate could have consequences in the constructors' championship

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool