How F1's top racers could detonate the 2021 driver market

While the Formula 1 teams should finally have clarity about the championship's 2021 rules later this month, and can therefore get on with preparing their cars, the competitive uncertainty the upcoming new era brings opens up a fascinating dynamic for the championship's top drivers.

When rules are stable and performance does not swing much from one season to the next, there is a fairly straightforward magnetic attraction between the top drivers and the top seats.

Right now, it's a no-brainer for the drivers at Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull to feel pretty content with where they stand for 2020, as there is no reason to believe F1's 'Class A' and 'Class B' status quo will change in the short term.

But for 2021 that is all thrown out of the window because the changes to the technical regulations, sporting rules, commercial rights income and the implementation of budget-cap restrictions mean everything is as uncertain as it was for the start of the turbo hybrid era.

Back then, there was an expectation Mercedes would get it right - which is why Lewis Hamilton had committed there much earlier - but few expected its level of dominance.

One consequence of that, when the reality of the competitive order became clear for Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel in 2014, was a massive upheaval of the driver market for the following year.

It's not inconceivable that F1 could face a similar shake up for 2021. Three of its top stars - Hamilton, Vettel, and Max Verstappen - are out of contract at the end of next year, and need to make a choice about what they do based on hunches rather than hard results.

If Liberty Media's ambition to pull back the top three teams and wipe away the buffer they have to the midfield is realised, then if any of those drivers make the wrong choice they could find themselves not just struggling for wins, but struggling to get on the podium.

The extra antagonism caused by tension and the risk of losing results often far outweigh the negatives of having two drivers who fall into a more natural order

The starting guns for the 2021 driver market were effectively set off in the build up to Japan, when Verstappen's father, Jos, planted the seed that his son is getting frustrated that Red Bull is not fighting right at the front.

He told Dutch TV: "He does everything he can, but this is not up to Max. That's what makes it so difficult. Put him in a good car and he will challenge for the championship. We've been at Red Bull for a couple of years now and it doesn't look like we'll be able to compete for the world championship next year."

Red Bull boss Christian Horner knows the chances of keeping Verstappen for 2021 will depend on the steps that his team and its engine supplier Honda can make in the early stages of next year.

Get it right - even though 2020 performance will ultimately have nothing to do with the following year's form - and that will strengthen greatly its hand in convincing Verstappen to remain.

But, intriguingly, even if Red Bull doesn't step it up next year, that may not make any difference to its chances of keeping its star driver.

Although Verstappen may have eyes on a Mercedes drive, if he doesn't like what he sees at Red Bull he may not even have an option of going there if Hamilton decides he is staying put because of a reluctance to put the pair together.

While fans love a rivalry between two drivers gunning it at each other in the same team - think of Piquet vs Mansell, Senna vs Prost, Hamilton vs Alonso, and even Hamilton vs Rosberg - it has proven time and again as not the best way of running things.

The extra antagonism caused by tension, and the risk of losing results due to collisions and politics, often far outweigh the negatives of having two drivers who fall into a more natural order and get on with things in a more serene way.

Look back on some of the most dominant eras for teams and drivers and you will find that often they did not face tensions with their two drivers. Michael Schumacher at Benetton then Ferrari, and Fernando Alonso at Renault, both had team-mates they had the edge over and didn't give them too much trouble.

In recent years, Vettel and Red Bull had a few headaches when he was paired with Mark Webber, while Hamilton has found a new level in the wake of Nico Rosberg's departure.

Red Bull has not ruled out the idea of a Vettel return, but the likelihood is that would only come about if he was a replacement for Verstappen - not as a team-mate

Several team bosses have independently told Autosport that there is not enough room in a modern F1 team for two alpha males. Ferrari is finding that out the hard way amid the growing tension between Vettel and Charles Leclerc, while both Mercedes and Red Bull are aware that movements affecting them in the driver market are much easier to manage when one of their drivers has a clear edge and they have two racers who get on.

Such thinking about the ultimate best line-up may well mean that even if Verstappen made clear he wanted out of Red Bull at the end of next year, Mercedes may not swoop for him if it has Hamilton under lock and key.

Why risk upsetting Hamilton's alpha male dominance for no upside, when Valtteri Bottas is delivering the results needed to bring home constructors' championships and take wins on his good days?

When you look at the reasons why Mercedes retained Bottas for next year, rather than take on Esteban Ocon, it will not have gone unnoticed how much easier things have been for Toto Wolff to deal with two drivers who get on and who are not fighting tooth and nail for supremacy.

Slotting in Ocon, who has the potential speed to eclipse Bottas, could have risked the kind of trouble that Ocon opened up at Force India when he clashed on occasion with Sergio Perez. That again was another scenario where two alpha males didn't mix.

If Hamilton stays put for 2021, which would leave Verstappen with nowhere to go, that could also have an impact on Vettel's own longer-term plans. Should Vettel decide that his future is not at Ferrari and he would prefer to return to his 'roots' at Red Bull for a final career hurrah, then that would depend on Verstappen not being there.

Red Bull certainly has not ruled out the idea of a Vettel return in the future, but the likelihood is that would only come about if he was a replacement for Verstappen, not as a team-mate.

"Max, Lewis and Sebastian are all out of contract at the end of 2020, so three of the four big players are in the open market," says Horner. "Inevitably, all of them will wait to see the relative performance of their individual teams during the course of next year, the first half of next year."

But it goes beyond that. Three star names and three teams. Given alpha males do not mix, there's going to be no sitting them alongside each other.

If one swaps, they all might, but everything is dependent on what Hamilton does.