How Aston Martin and Alonso can save F1 2023 from Red Bull domination

“Red Bull, they've got this championship,” Mercedes’ George Russell reflected after the 2023 Bahrain Grand Prix. “I don't think anybody's going to be fighting with them this year and I expect them to win... They should win every single race this season, is my bet.”

The paddock pessimism after Red Bull’s straightforward run to top winter testing and then setting a stunning long run pace in the season opener’s second practice session via star driver Max Verstappen proved correct. Red Bull has started 2023 in just as a commanding position as it ended 2022.

If that wasn’t enough to reinforce Russell’s point in pure performance terms, Ferrari showed yet more reliability fallibility and tyre wear woe in its defeat last Sunday. And Mercedes was even further away from the pace in Bahrain as it was here in 2022.

PLUS: The critical Red Bull tyre tactic Ferrari couldn't copy in Bahrain GP

That said, winning every race in a single campaign is still a huge challenge. Should Red Bull do that, it would achieve a unique and stunning piece of F1 history.

The closest any team has come to a single season sweep was McLaren’s 15 from 16 in 1988 (a 93.8% conversion rate). Recently, Mercedes went 19 from 21 in 2016 (90.5%), while during its other period of F1 domination Red Bull achieved 13 out of 19 2013 victories (68.4%). Last year, its 17 from 22 netted a 77.3% hit rate, where Verstappen set the new single-season record (15) for drivers he could yet topple in 2023.

So, the odds are actually against Red Bull winning every race in 2023, despite the utter drubbing of the competition last weekend. Plus, there’s reasons to expect things to be different at the changing track variants through the early part of the season.

The need not to stress the rears around the Sakhir track likely flattered Red Bull last weekend

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Bahrain remains an outlier venue with its abrasive track surfaces and high temperatures – even in the night sessions. Plus, with Ferrari and Mercedes shedding peak downforce parts to match Red Bull’s typical straight line speed prowess, their tyre degradation struggles were exacerbated over a stint. Indeed, the need not to stress the rears around the Sakhir track likely flattered Red Bull last weekend, given it proved it could win aplenty with an understeer balance on the earlier hefty version of the RB18 last year.

F1 next heads to Jeddah, where Ferrari’s quest for an improved top speed should be really realised. The SF-23s had the legs on the RB19s at the end of every Bahrain straight in qualifying, with the Saudi Arabian track a high-speed blast on a very different surface that should mean fewer rear tyre life concerns.

Heading onto Australia afterwards and the recent changes to the Albert Park layout mean good aerodynamic efficiency will be rewarded. And Ferrari also has a history of succeeding in Melbourne anyway – even when facing big performance deficits elsewhere, such as against Mercedes during the ultra-high-downforce design era.

Without the time loss fighting the Mercedes cars, and assuming he’d have despatched the struggling Carlos Sainz reasonably quickly, Alonso could’ve got amongst the Leclerc/Perez battle for second

And let’s not forget that Red Bull can still get its sums wrongs on tyre strategy and management performance. The team’s mistakes meant Valtteri Bottas was able to drive away from wet weather master Verstappen in the 2021 Turkish GP and it gave Mercedes another advantage in this area at Interlagos last year. There, it took Mercedes to further glory on a day Red Bull remained the favourite – albeit aided by Verstappen clashing with Lewis Hamilton in Russell’s wake.

Thinking further ahead, perhaps this will be the year Charles Leclerc can finally convert a home Monaco pole into victory, given the unique importance of qualifying there and how he once again shone in qualifying in Bahrain. He hasn’t lost anything of his searing speed over the winter.

But, of course, these are hypotheticals – right now just as likely to become reality as a perfect Red Bull walkover. And if that does happen, F1 is going to need one hell of a major subplot to keep fans engaged without a title fight glory. Step forward, Fernando Alonso and his new Aston Martin team.

Insight: 10 things we learned at the 2023 Bahrain Grand Prix

The AMR23 was the second quickest car last Sunday and had it not been for Lance Stroll tagging his team-mate as Alonso tried to cut back against Hamilton’s surprise early pass at Bahrain’s famous Turn 4, things might’ve been closer with Red Bull than even the mighty Leclerc was managing.

Alonso is adamant there’s also more to come from the Aston package

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

The result surely wouldn’t have changed, but Alonso estimated he lost “10 or 15 seconds on all those battles” fighting the Mercedes cars after so nearly being punted out of the race by the injured Stroll (who deserves huge praise for the brave and brilliant performance he put in with two broken wrists and a broken toe around that). Without that time loss, and assuming he’d have despatched the struggling Carlos Sainz reasonably quickly, Alonso could’ve got amongst the Leclerc/Perez battle for second.

PLUS: Bahrain Grand Prix Driver Ratings 2023

Returning to speculation’s realm, consider what might’ve happened had Alonso started third – or even second as he managed for Alpine in Canada last year. The relentless, tenacious veteran may well have found a way to attack Verstappen too. Although that theory is tempered by the knowledge Alonso is clever enough to realise there’s no point risking a hefty haul just for short-lived glory. He said as much when discussing his brilliant passes on Hamilton and Sainz post-race last Sunday.

“With these great drivers, great champions,” Alonso reflected, “it is more intense, more adrenaline when you are wheel-to-wheel. I didn't want to have any mistake or any contact. Because obviously when you are P12, you lose nothing, but we were fighting for big things.”

Alonso is also adamant there’s also more to come from the Aston package, which he claims is “95%” new compared to 2022’s ‘green Red Bull’ – a tag Verstappen’s squad hasn’t forgotten judging by Perez’s press conference quip it was “nice to see three Red Bull cars on the podium!”.

If that’s true, the AMR23 may well have a higher development ceiling compared to cars from teams deploying evolution designs such as Ferrari and Mercedes, which may be about to abandon what clearly doesn’t work, and Red Bull itself. That could make things more interesting down the line.

But for all his pumped-up team radio messages and almost brutally happy hug with Aston owner Lawrence Stroll on the grid ahead of Sunday’s race, Alonso is sagely staying cautious when discussing what his green team can achieve in 2023.

His race in Bahrain wasn’t perfect – think those two wild Turn 4 slides while battling Hamilton and Sainz. In the first, he nearly dropped his car while booting on the power, which he put down to “getting used to the car" and things that are "are not 100% tailor-made yet" in terms of him needing to adapt to how the Aston delivers its Mercedes engine grunt differently to the Alpine/Renault package he was used to.

Alonso says the will to win of Aston owner Lawrence Stroll is an ingredient missing from other squads, but is remaining cautious of the green team's prospects

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

It clearly does this very powerfully compared with the rest judging by the GPS telemetry traces logged in Bahrain, where the Aston was clocked positively punching off the slower corners. This boosted its excellent braking stability, which meant Alonso generally braked later than any of his rivals. Plus, the Bahrain track surface may too have flattered Aston, although it should be noted its package is very kind on its rubber and has been for some time – even going back to its Force India/Racing Point days in the previous rules era.

And the AMR23 is draggy, which meant it wasn’t a match for the Red Bull, Ferrari or Mercedes cars in a straight line in Bahrain and this forced Alonso to get creative with his passing. This was particularly the case with Hamilton and it was wonderful to watch such brilliant drivers battle closely for so long and keep it clean too.

Back to the drag problem. This may temper Aston expectations at the higher-speed venues now up next. Although it’s hard to imagine Alonso objecting to the new fourth DRS zone in Melbourne as he apparently did last year, given with it the Aston can dump its drag for longer around Albert Park in qualifying and race battles…

Even if at full whack Red Bull is rather untouchable in 2023, Alonso being around the top positions regularly would be box office for F1. And Aston’s leap up the pecking order is already providing inspiration to other long-midfield-mired squads

Let’s not forget how good Red Bull was last weekend. Aston team principal Mike Krack said in the Bahrain paddock post-race – in an impromptu standing outdoors media scrum with the team’s hospitality building still packed with celebrating guests – that Red Bull might’ve been even further ahead given “we don't know how much management [they] had to do and did”.

But even if at full whack Red Bull is rather untouchable in 2023, Alonso being around the top positions regularly would be box office for F1. And Aston’s leap up the pecking order is already providing inspiration to other long-midfield-mired squads hoping to one day do likewise.

In the post-race press conference, Alonso couldn’t help – because he presumably very much wanted to say it – stating: “only one team is willing to do whatever it takes to win”. It doesn’t take too much guesswork that his former squads Ferrari, Alpine and McLaren were drawing his ire, plus perhaps Mercedes too.

This is Alonso. As devastatingly interesting off-track as he is on it. And in what yet may be a long season of Verstappen/Red Bull success (not that that’s their combined fault or taking anything away from their excellent achievements) it could be just what F1 needs to keep 2023 stimulating.

Alonso being around the top positions regularly would be box office for F1

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool