Gary Anderson ranks the teams after test one

Right from the start of testing, all of the cars have looked much better-balanced than you'd expect straight out of the box, with none battling any obvious vices or showing the kinds of balance problems you'd normally see at this stage.

But as testing progressed, we have started to build a picture of the competitive order and, as drivers have pushed harder, seen some signs of which cars really are handling as well as they looked initially and which might have some problems.

Lap times in isolation don't mean anything in testing. Having five different tyre compounds available, varying track conditions and a range of fuel loads further clouds the picture.

But by following the lap times through the weekend, analysing the runs and normalising for the various conditions you can get an idea of how things are shaping up. Things will become clearer at next week's second test.

By taking the fastest lap set by each team, adjusting it for what we know was the minimum fuel load based on laps completed in a run, and what teams historically tend to run, and using a delta to set the difference in pace between the five compounds of tyres, we can come up with a theoretical fastest lap.

This isn't perfect and things will change, but it gives us a good idea of who is in good shape and who has work to do.

As always, I disagree with the tyre deltas suggested by Pirelli based on what I've seen this week, so have created my own based on what I've seen going on across all cars.

These are as listed below, showing the lap time gain for each step from hardest (C1) to softest (C5).

C1 to C2 - 0.6s
C2 to C3 - 0.5s
C3 to C4 - 0.5s
C4 to C5 - 0.3s

As the tyre compound gets softer, it improves rear grip and creates some understeer. So to get the best out of a soft compound you need a car that, let's say, when on the C3 tyre has a hint of oversteer, and on the C4 will be balanced so the driver can get the best from the softer tyre compound.

Couple this with the long, fast Turn 3 at Barcelona and it's also very difficult to keep the softer tyres alive for more than one balls-out lap.

Below is a ranking that shows the actual fastest times set in the first column, then that time adjusted to what it would have been on the C4 tyres, then finally, in the third column, is my theoretical time factoring in the possible fuel load as well.

Gary Anderson's ranking

1. Ferrari - The early favourite

From the start of testing, the Ferrari has been fast and looks strong on track. It's doing what the driver wants it to do, riding the kerbs well and there's been no sign of any balance problems from trackside.

If the car does anything untoward, it's usually down to a small driver error. When I was watching at Campsa, the fast right-hander, Charles Leclerc was able to get half of his inside tyres on the kerbs and the car remained stable. Others were having to give it a wide berth, so this is a car that is quick, stable and consistent, as we've seen from Ferraris over the past couple of years.

The traction also looks good, with the drivers able to feed the power in with confidence. Based on what we've seen so far, Ferrari is leading the pack, but the question is by how much?

On current evidence, it has a clear edge on Mercedes, and if that continues through the second test next week it means Sebastian Vettel and Leclerc could go into the season as favourites.

2. Renault - Making the step it wanted

We didn't see too much from Renault early on in testing, and Daniel Ricciardo's rear wing failure - caused by a problem with the DRS mechanism - was a concern.

But in the second half of testing, we began to see more evidence of pace and it looks like Renault could achieve its aim of closing on F1's big three teams.

It's been quite hand-to-mouth for the team in terms of parts at this test, so clearly it was marginal on car build time. We can expect some new bits and pieces to crop up perhaps next week, or certainly in Melbourne.

On track, the car is looking well balanced and drivers can carry good speed, although it was interesting to see Ricciardo using a bit more track than he wanted to exiting Turn 2 and then not quite able to drag the car back to the left for the ideal entry into Turn 3.

That's what you get if you jump out of a Red Bull into a Renault, but the signs are he will at least be in the fight at the front of the midfield.

3. Mercedes - Not the pacesetter

Mercedes spent much of the first three days of the test keeping a low profile but picked up the pace on day four.

Even though there was more focus on performance, based on what we've seen it does appear to be a little way behind Ferrari.

This doesn't mean it won't change, but there is a possible reason why Mercedes might have a bit of work to do. It's got a more conventional front wing, which doesn't drop away in front of the tyre. So downforce is being created in that area.

Mercedes runs less rake than the rest, but the more rake you run, the closer to the ground you get your front wing, which allows you to generate the downforce without having to have the maximum allowed flap area.

But with the front wing performance compromised when you have steering lock on, it's possible that Mercedes is losing some of that downforce in the corners, which could create a problem.

So if that's the case, it could be time for Mercedes to look outside its five-time championship winning box of ideas.

4. Haas - Fast but problematic

Haas hasn't had the smoothest week, but based on how it performs on track you'd say it has every chance of being at the front of the upper midfield pack come Melbourne.

It's well-balanced, does what the drivers want it to do and looks similar to the very good car we saw last year.

The unreliability is a concern, as team principal Gunther Steiner has said. We saw a Haas stopped on track more than any other team, and that will have impacted how much has been learned in this test.

But if that can be conquered, it's looking like it could be a good season.

5. Red Bull - Holding station

The new Honda engine sounds a little less raspy than it used to as it continues to make progress towards the performance of the Ferrari and Mercedes power units.

Based on what we saw in the first test, Red Bull certainly isn't going into the season any worse off than last year, although it still has work to do to get onto the level of Ferrari. The car looks good on track.

It handles the kerbs well and in the chicane could bounce over them and settle more quickly than most. Other than Pierre Gasly's crash on the second day, when he failed to catch a rear-end snap at the uphill Turn 11 right-hander, it did what the drivers wanted.

We haven't got a clear idea of exactly how much the Honda engine is behind and we still need to see if the fuel economy concerns it had last year are still there - and they might well be - but if Red Bull's aim is to start the season where it was with Renault and then hope to work forward, it's on target.

But it doesn't look like a championship-challenging package. Yet.

6. Alfa Romeo - A very strong start

The Alfa Romeo started the test looking very strong on track, but as the week progressed we did start to see some signs of a little instability and the drivers weren't able to attack quite as much as they wanted to.

It also struggled a little over the kerbs at the chicane, with a double-bounce on the front axle when it landed after hitting them.

This usually comes from running the front of the car a little too stiff, meaning that the tyres take a large amount of the deflection. But it seems to be a good package.

The main question is whether it has the downforce and grip it needs to be right at the front of the midfield pack, rather than just being thereabouts.

But this is a team that is heading into the season in far better shape than it looked 12 months ago and it should build on its strong finish to last year.

7. Racing Point - Getting the job done

What was once Force India usually comes to the first test aiming to get a handle on reliability and understand the car and rarely catches the attention with its pace, and it seemed it's like business as usual here.

On track, the car looks decent, but it just needs some more grip to carry the speed. The team should have achieved a good understanding, and as it's using the same gearbox and rear suspension as last year, it won't be too big a change from before.

So we can expect Racing Point to be thereabouts come Melbourne.

8. Toro Rosso - Ground to make up

With Williams just off the back, if you had to pick the weakest in the midfield pack based on visual evidence it would be the Toro Rosso.

It's well-balanced, but perhaps lacks a little downforce and grip. The team is aiming for a good development rate through the season and could perhaps do what Sauber did last year.

But as there are often opportunities for big results early in the season thanks to unreliability the time lost over the winter in getting the car to this stage could cost it a little.

There's nothing fundamentally wrong with the car and I think we saw what it was capable of in Alexander Albon's hands on the final day.

So a solid start for Toro Rosso, but there has to be a bit more to come.

9. McLaren - 2018 problems haven't gone away

As the test went on, we started to get a bit of a hint of the same rear instability that caused McLaren problems last year, although it wasn't as dramatic as it was in testing this time in 2018.

It was a solid start, and the team's in the midfield pack but not at the front of it at this stage. On the first two days, we did see some quick laps, with Carlos Sainz Jr and Lando Norris second on Monday and Tuesday.

But we also saw Norris driving quite aggressively. At Campsa on Tuesday he was changing down an extra gear to help rotate the rear and then shifting back up 20 metres later. But by Thursday he was matching what Sainz was doing.

10. Williams - Too soon to tell

Williams had a very late start, only arriving at the test overnight ahead of the third day then hitting the track for the first time in the afternoon.

We didn't see many signs of pace but this was a car missing a few bits and pieces. On track it looked solid enough and responded to what the driver asked it to do.

It's always difficult when the car build is running behind, but hopefully Williams has done enough to understand how the FW42 works and can hit the ground running and find some performance next week.

If not, it could be a long, hard season and based on what we have seen so far, there's a lot of work to do. But we have to reserve judgement for now as there's still a lot of catching up required.