Does eight world titles projection undersell Hamilton's potential?

There is a strong school of thought that Lewis Hamilton's one-year contract extension with Mercedes means he is now set on a path to walk away from Formula 1 after clinching an eighth world title - taking the record for most championships solo in 2021.

But this underestimates several important factors in Hamilton's case - it's worth recalling that late last season he said he'd "earned the right or the position so far to be able to stay for a decent amount of time" ahead with Mercedes - and when taking these into account a new narrative emerges. It's also one that could yet defy an age-old expectation.

For a start, although Hamilton clearly has lots of interests outside F1 and may indeed decide enough is enough at the end of 2021, it simply cannot be automatically assumed that he is going to be done with F1 then.

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The COVID-19 pandemic may even have made him massively reassess what he wants to do in terms of immediate life goals. After all, less time travelling in 2020 could've considerably rejuvenated him after a life mainly spent on the road - a positive minor side effect of the awful year the world has experienced and potentially true of lots of others working in F1. McLaren's Daniel Ricciardo said the lockdown-caused delays to the 2020 season "might give me a bit more longevity in my career".

Then there's Hamilton's stated final goal in F1 - furthering the push to increase diversity in motorsport.

Bluntly put, people care more about current drivers than ex-drivers, and so the best way for him to achieve this aim is to stay an active competitor at motorsport's top level. A case in point here would be the t-shirt message demanding justice for Breonna Taylor that Hamilton wore after winning the Tuscan Grand Prix. The powerful message he conveyed on one of F1's most-famous locations - the top step of the podium - was witnessed by a broader audience than had he posted the message from his own, non-sporting, platforms alone (although his reach on these is considerable).

Hamilton knows the power he has at the top of F1's game, which makes his efforts to further such an important cause all the more impressive.

Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff explained that Hamilton's one-year deal was a product of the rather unique challenges that the pandemic - and both parties contracting COVID-19 over the winter - had posed to his negotiations with the seven-time world champion.

Essentially, they have agreed to resume talks about a further, presumably longer, extension starting in 2022 later this year. There are also important economic impacts from the pandemic that must be taken into account for both sides when it comes to another new deal.

Hamilton's desire to keep winning can be seen in every Mercedes victory he's taken. This is another factor undersold in theories suggesting he will walk away after 2021

Hamilton turned 36 in January. In 2021, he will be the third oldest driver on the grid - down a spot in this bracket from 2020 thanks to Fernando Alonso's return. But he is yet to show he is entering into anything like the decline that is often expected of sports people as they get older. Sebastian Vettel is 2.5 years younger than Hamilton but has a clear track record of errors in recent seasons that he did not generally make in his younger days.

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As an interesting aside, consider NFL record-setter-in-chief, Tom Brady (below, right). The now Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback won his seventh Super Bowl last weekend aged 43 - which puts him on the same number as Hamilton's F1 title haul. The respect between the pair is evident in their social media interactions - a satisfying 'GOAT recognising GOAT' moment for those that subscribe to such denominations (a controversial debate for many).

Brady, who is now the oldest Super Bowl-winning quarterback by four years, isn't declining at the dramatic rate as some of his peers - and this is often put down to his incredible fitness and diet regime. But this is also only a product of modern innovation in these fields - it stands to reason that earlier great NFL players would've benefitted from these techniques.

In that way, Hamilton's situation is similar - F1 teams are simply better than they were in the past. His rise to F1 domination might even be considered 'easier' because the advantages in F1 take longer to undo compared to the NFL, which is supposed to be geared to stopping one team/player dominating by providing the best new players to teams ranked at the bottom of the league (this factor enhances Brady's reputation considerably).

Brady isn't considered the most naturally gifted quarterback in NFL history and is driven by an intense desire to keep winning. Of course, it's essentially impossible to compare 'talent' levels across sports, but Hamilton's desire to keep winning can be seen in every Mercedes victory he's taken. This is another factor undersold in theories suggesting he will walk away after 2021.

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Both Brady and Hamilton boost their respective teams. Brady went to a new team in 2020 and won immediately and, although Hamilton took two years to do that thanks to F1's baked-in advantages, he clearly helped elevate Mercedes back in 2014 (not that it needed all that much assistance in the early years of the turbo hybrid era). Now, Hamilton continues to lift his squad by being consistently excellent - he delivers and tends to do so mistake free.

Hamilton is far from F1's oldest champion (Juan Manuel Fangio, aged 46 in 1957) and is currently ninth on the all-time oldest champions list. Drivers 'peak' at different times and it may even be that he is still yet to reach his best form. For example, Nigel Mansell arguably hit his peak in his late 30s. Plus, in motorsport, while age decline should be acknowledged, it must surely be considered less of a factor compared to other sports, as physical fitness is less important (although still significant).

Mercedes has recently gone out of its way it way to highlight why it could be tripped up in 2021. But, by pointing this out, the team reinforces why it's the favourite yet again. So, yes, Hamilton is the overwhelming favourite to win in 2021, but this doesn't inevitably mean it's 'one (more) and done' on his time in F1.

The 2022 rules reset represents the most tangible threat to his chances of taking titles beyond this year.

If the new rules close the grid up, then Hamilton will inevitably have a harder path to the title. But that doesn't necessarily mean he will come to a sudden halt. Mercedes has navigated rule changes before and continued to win, and many competitors go through fallow periods before returning to the top to add to their title hauls (a la Brady with the New England Patriots). Plus, Hamilton has regularly mentioned his desire to take on the younger F1 generations in a closer battle, so we should take him at his word in considering his future motivation.

Securing an eighth title is Hamilton's target in 2021. But it's far from the potential total he could go on to achieve, should he take his career towards Fangio's F1 record or even continue to win at Brady's age.