Did Red Bull blow its 'Canada' chance to hand Verstappen Norris's Melbourne win?

Lando Norris was delighted that McLaren had finally won a wet-dry Formula 1 thriller, but the data from the 2025 Australian Grand Prix shows Red Bull had at least a shot to win a ‘Canada’ scenario for Max Verstappen.

It would’ve been very close but, on such tiny margins, races can change massively – as Norris and McLaren know only too well after their near-misses last year.

In fact, had two other critical moments gone differently, then Verstappen may well have been leaving the F1 season opener victorious for a third successive year. Here’s how the race turned out as it did.

Norris soaks up pressure from two rivals

Norris maintained the lead at the start after the beginning of the race was delayed by Hadjar's shunt

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

The aborted start following Isack Hadjar’s formation-lap crash meant the back-to-school nerves continued to build for an extra 15 minutes, after which it was Verstappen that made the best start of the three qualifying pacesetters.

Remember here how the Red Bull’s starting systems were fettled in late 2023 to become class leading in low-grip conditions and Verstappen’s launch from third was so good he even had a half-chance to look at Norris’s lead from pole on the outside line – which the Briton fended off firmly.

Oscar Piastri getting marginally the better McLaren start meant he was pinched on the inside and so, as the pack raced through Turn 2 – where both MCL39s snapped violently – Verstappen powered by to run second.

He stayed there for the next 15 laps – never falling more than 1.4 seconds behind Norris, with DRS enabled on lap 12 – including after three safety car tours following Jack Doohan’s lap-one crash.

On lap 16, Verstappen lost 0.6s as his starting intermediates were wearing worse than those on the McLarens and, on the next tour, he locked his left-front at Turn 11 and slid deep on the wet kerb – allowing Piastri by.

Here Norris led by three seconds, before his team-mate began to surge. With a series of fastest laps, Piastri closed to get DRS for the first time on lap 28. Norris then got this too as they lapped the Haas cars and Liam Lawson in the other Red Bull – around which McLaren ordered Piastri to hold station through the expected switch to dry tyres.

There was a brief moment when Piastri began to threaten Norris but McLaren orders intervened

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

He pointed out “I’m faster”, but complied. On the next lap, once the traffic was clear, he asked if the order was to be lifted, but was denied.

Piastri was then falling back slightly after Norris was ordered to increase his pace to match team-mate due to over-stressing his front left inter, but a Turn 6 gravelstrike for the home hero on lap 32 caused the gap to start ballooning to 3.4s – after which the race was altered dramatically.

Fernando Alonso crashed hard at Turn 7 on lap 33 – having unsettled his Aston Martin on the vicious Turn 6 exit kerb, which speared the Spaniard off.

Piastri’s gap meant McLaren could execute a lap 34 doublestack under the safety car to give both its cars hard slicks and retain the lead ahead of Verstappen, who had his previously massive 18.3s gap to the leaders erased exchanging those destroyed inters for medium slicks under the neutralisation.

Norris then aced another restart and roared clear of Piastri but, even as the safety car was circulating, the drivers had been warned to expect more, and heavy (“class two or three”, depending on which engineer was delivering the message), rain.

When it arrived, the race’s three critical acts played out.

Norris survives McLaren’s gravel-skating, which does for Piastri

Crucial error for Piastri left him fighting with Hamilton at the bottom of the top 10 in closing stages

Photo by: Lubomir Asenov / Motorsport Images

On lap 44, and with a rapidly restored three-second lead, Norris was the first driver to hit the wettest part of the track at the final corners. He shot off at Turn 12 and skated through the gravel, as did Piastri when he arrived on the scene moments later.

Verstappen, roughly three seconds further back himself, was able to get it stopped in time to hold his snap when it came, while Norris rejoined with a wider approach line for Turn 13 and Piastri shot back on at speed on a much narrower path.

The different line for Norris meant the lead McLaren could just about slither around Turn 13 and then slide into the pitlane – where just seconds earlier Norris’s engineer Will Joesph had been reporting “class ‘half’” rain intensity.

As Norris was making for the pitlane, Piastri lost the rear of his car due to his positioning post-gravel – he then got stuck spinning on the grass behind Turn 13 until he eventually reversed to the nearby escape road.

He got back going again, but lost a lap, only the subsequent third safety car would undo.

Red Bull's ‘Canada’ chance

Verstappen profited from McLaren's call in Canada last year but couldn't repeat the result here

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Impressively, given the late call to pit, McLaren was ready to put Norris back on the intermediates when he arrived – and he was turned around without real delay in 3s.

He came out of the pitlane back behind Lawson, with Verstappen clear in the lead in the other Red Bull.

The Dutchman and Gianpiero Lambiase exchanged thoughts on what to do next as lap 45 unfolded, but ultimately, after passing Ollie Bearman’s spun Haas exiting Turn 12, Verstappen was ordered to stay out.

This was a critical moment for the race result. At this stage, Verstappen led Norris back in the pack by 21.1s and so, had he pitted now, the timing data shows he would’ve emerged ahead of Norris.

This is because the pitlane drive-through time loss is just 12.6s in Melbourne so, assuming Red Bull matched McLaren’s stop time and allowing approximately two seconds either side of the stop as a margin of error, that still adds up to 19.6s and a narrow lead.

This is the exact reverse of the 2024 Canadian GP, when McLaren left Norris out for another lap when timing an overcut attempt to take slicks in that race. This ultimately meant, when Norris did emerge from his last stop in Montreal, Verstappen’s mediums were up to temperature as he’d come in earlier and the world champion could power by to win.

Red Bull insiders do, however, insist that their simulation tools were showing Verstappen as being one-second unsafe no matter what he did, which explains the order to keep him out.

And, of course, it’s not a given that even stopping one lap earlier than when he did eventually come in on lap 46 would’ve guaranteed Verstappen Melbourne victory for a second time in F1.

But, even with the warmer tyres on the McLaren this time around, it would’ve heaped pressure on Norris and there’s also Verstappen’s ruthlessness in combat to consider.

And then there’s how Norris clearly views Montreal 2024 as a missed win chance, when he and McLaren were playing that idea down last year, as Christian Horner and Red Bull are now in Melbourne.

Ultimately, it at least would’ve meant Norris having to repass to win on Sunday and even in changing conditions that’s hard at this brutal track. And, in any case, the Albert Park layout helped Verstappen garner one more (narrower) victory shot.

Norris nearly loses it all with three laps left

Verstappen piled the pressure on Norris in the final laps, but to no avail

Photo by: Lubomir Asenov / Motorsport Images

Another factor that might’ve swung things is what would’ve happened if Ferrari had kept its drivers out under the safety car that followed Lawson and Gabriel Bortoleto crashing just after Verstappen pitted.

Norris had passed Lewis Hamilton for the lead by the time the safety car was called and, given the four neutralised tours that followed, it seems more likely any continued presence of the seven-time world champion and Charles Leclerc on the slicks would’ve just impeded Verstappen’s path back to second and given the eventual winner more breathing room.

As it was, Ferrari compounded its tricky situation by taking inters after everyone else and so, once again, Norris had to nail a third restart ahead of his famously fierce rival as the closing stages kicked off.

He did, but Verstappen still threatened and did not drop back by any more than 1.7s as the late shootout initially played out.

Then, with just two laps remaining (the total down from 58 to 57 due to the aborted start), Norris lost 0.65s dipping a wheel into the perilous Turn 6 gravel. McLaren says by this stage he was carry considerable floor damage, although it is not yet sure if this was caused in the smaller Turn 6 off or the major one pre-final stop.

It gave Verstappen the chance to close in with DRS, which he used to get right on Norris’s gearbox into the fearsome Turns 9/10 swoops on the final two laps. But no move was forthcoming and a famous, thrilling win played out for Norris and McLaren.

It was not always straightforward, but it was Norris who left Melbourne celebrating

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images