David Coulthard's Japanese Grand Prix preview

As we have seen this year there is more than one driver/team combination that can win in 2011, but on the evidence of overall car performance the only person likely to beat Sebastian Vettel at Suzuka (weather permitting) is Mark Webber.

Clearly we haven't seen the best of Mark this year, even if the gap between himself and Seb has been tiny in qualifying and race results have been largely influenced by the quality of their starts.

Webber is likely to be Vettel's main threat, says Coulthard © sutton-images.com

Let me remind you that this is the man who fought so hard with Seb last year and was right in the four-way championship battle with him, Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso until the last race in Abu Dhabi, finishing within 14 points of the champion. They both have strengths and weaknesses of course, although it has to be said that Seb has been almost faultless in the defence of his championship, whereas Mark has once again seemed to be unlucky at crucial times (but then again, do you really make your own luck?)

There are areas in which both had the upper hand last year but we haven't seen the areas where Mark has the upper hand so far this year. It's got to be just there bubbling below the surface.

I've got to believe that there's still a great pole position and race victory in him this year, and I think if that comes this weekend, then he'll be a different driver for the rest of the year having rediscovered his mojo.

Ferrari's outside chance

I don't see Ferrari being a factor at Suzuka unless a sizeable upgrade enhances its performance; Fernando Alonso keeps on banging on about how every lap he does at the moment is the best he's ever done, so that shows he's having to wring its neck just to get it to where it is now. Suzuka is a bit too aero-dependent a circuit to suit Ferrari's current car, and McLaren will probably need the weather to turn nasty to allow Jenson Button and Hamilton to get up to the front.

So that just leaves the Red Bulls then, which in theory will again have an advantage because the low-grip nature of the Suzuka track surface means that in qualifying especially, there'll probably be a high level of drop-off from the peak performance of a new tyre. With Red Bull currently having the best aero and therefore the ability to adapt this to what's needed at any given time, there's no reason to expect the team not to fill the front row. From there, who's going to challenge them?

Willis is part of Mercedes' new technical team © sutton-images.com

Mercedes recruitment drive

The recruitment of Aldo Costa and Geoff Willis to Mercedes's technical team has probably come just in the nick of time to have a positive effect on next year's car.

There's no doubt in my mind that Mercedes will have started working on its 2012 car earlier than Red Bull, Ferrari or McLaren; if it hasn't then it's got even bigger issues than anyone realises.

Aldo and Geoff can have a positive impact. They've been at Ferrari and Red Bull in the past and you don't spend time at Maranello or Milton Keynes without picking up knowledge in terms of overall design strategies and knowing what concepts have been trialled behind closed doors and done away with. Can they be what Mercedes needs to start really challenging for wins and titles? I guess we'll find out next year.