Autosport predicts F1 2019

Ferrari ended 2019 Formula 1 pre-season testing on top, but Mercedes is a title-winning machine in the modern era. Will this be the year its reign is finally ended, or just a third season in a row in which Ferrari has teased with a strong start and then been overcome?

Will Red Bull-Honda's positive winter noises be reflected in reality? Who will come out on top in the midfield battle?

Is Charles Leclerc going to be a shock title contender, or turn out to be overhyped? We gathered writers from across Autosport, Motorsport.com, F1 Racing and the wider Motorsport Network for our annual pre-season F1 poll, asking our team to predict the top 10 in the drivers' championship.

As ever, we then collated the results and used the F1 scoring system to create our predicted 2019 championship result.

THE PANEL: Ben Anderson, Matt Beer, Jake Boxall-Legge, Adam Cooper, Pablo Elizalde, Erwin Jaeggi, Matt James, Alex Kalinauckas, Jamie Klein, Oleg Karpov, Valentin Khorounzhiy, Scott Mitchell, James Roberts, Edd Straw, Kevin Turner, Andrew van de Burgt

10 Romain Grosjean

MATT JAMES (@MattJMNews) I will take one last punt on Grosjean. His F1 background has been choppy, to say the least, but there is pace there. The Haas looks good this year, but it's vital for him to turn his reputation around, rather than inadvertently turning the car around, which he did plenty of in 2018...

ANDREW VAN DE BURGT (@AvdaB) You know there will be the odd error, but there will be some blindingly quick drives in between these too.

BEN ANDERSON (@BenAndersonAuto) Haas should start the season strongly, and Grosjean is an ace qualifier, so if he keeps his cool and Haas doesn't repeat last season's operational errors he should be in for a strong year.

KEVIN TURNER (@KRT917) I'm taking a bit of a punt in the hope that we see the Grosjean that proved quicker than Kimi Raikkonen at Lotus in 2013 rather than the crash-prone one we saw at the start of last year.

9 Kimi Raikkonen

JAKE BOXALL-LEGGE (@JakeyyBL) Alfa Romeo, with its unconventional design and quasi-works status, looks in good shape for 2019. And blimey, wasn't it a surprise that Ferrari's endless succession of one-year renewals for Raikkonen finally came to an end? The Finn enters the new year off the back of his best season in years, and looks every bit the perfect person to help the ex-Sauber team consolidate its position in the midfield.

PABLO ELIZALDE (@EliGP) If the 2018 Raikkonen shows up again this season, he could thrive in his new atmosphere - especially if 'not-Sauber' can keep the sensational momentum it had last year. Fingers crossed the 2017 Raikkonen doesn't make a comeback.

ADAM COOPER (@AdamCooperF1) Kimi's class will help to propel the team along, and as in his Lotus days he will keep logging the points and possibly even grab a podium on a day when others drop the ball.

JAMES ROBERTS (@JRobertsF1) Kimi is already reinvigorated by the switch to Alfa Romeo and has spoken privately about how quick the car is. There'll be flashes of brilliance and high-profile incidents, but most of the time a decent, unhurried run will bring the car home week after week.

8 Nico Hulkenberg

MJ F1 fans with rose-tinted glasses remember Chris Amon as the best driver of a generation not to win a race. Hulkenberg will be desperate to make sure he isn't remembered in the same way. But the high-profile arrival of new team-mate Daniel Ricciardo seems like another nail in that coffin.

JAMIE KLEIN (@JamieKlein_) For the first time, Hulkenberg is up against a true F1 A-lister on the other side of the garage. He won't disgrace himself against Ricciardo but will likely have fewer standout races.

PE With Ricciardo as his team-mate, this is the year that all doubts about Hulkenberg's ability will be put to rest, for better or worse. My prediction is he'll run the Australian close all year, but will still be the second Renault driver in the standings.

VALENTIN KHOROUNZHIY (@vkhorounzhiy) Don't expect him to play second fiddle to Ricciardo. Hulkenberg has made a clear step forward since F1's move to higher downforce, and may be better positioned to make the most of Renault's continued progress while his new team-mate is still adapting.

7 Daniel Ricciardo

AC Splitting the two Renault drivers is not easy, but the momentum he has from running near the front in recent years could give Ricciardo the edge.

PE Whether Ricciardo's gamble will pay off in the long run, only time will tell. What's clear is that F1 will miss having him in a car that's capable of fighting near the front. The Renault won't be that.

SCOTT MITCHELL (@ScottAutosport) Do not underestimate the challenge of going up against Hulkenberg. While Ricciardo is a hardcore racer, he's not been in the midfield for a while. That presents a different kind of racing, and mental, challenge.

KT The Ricciardo-Hulkenberg contest will be one of the most interesting of the season. It'll be close, but a happier Ricciardo than we saw in 2018 could just be enough to win this intra-team battle. Although testing form was ambiguous, Renault will surely edge clear of the midfield mass into a solid fourth spot behind the big three.

6 Pierre Gasly

AC I think Gasly will have some tough times this year - the Barcelona test crash was already a big blow for him - but he's got talent and the Red Bull will be sufficiently quicker than the rest to allow him to stash enough points to secure a place in the top six.

SM Aiming for a first victory in F1 this year could be a bridge too far for Gasly, who needs to accept it for what it is: a bonus season at Red Bull, and not one in which he should make the mistake of trying to match Verstappen from the off. Podiums and a solid haul of points must be expected, though.

AvdB There will be times when he runs at the sharp end and days where you wonder where he went.

VK Red Bull has been clear that Gasly is mainly expected to learn in his first season in the big leagues, which means finishing at the foot of the top six should be an acceptable return. There will certainly be races where he will have potential for more - but as the pre-season showed, there's also the danger he may overdrive.

JR A lovely chap and a decent racer, Gasly has been promoted to Red Bull a year too soon.

BA By the team's own admission, Gasly has been promoted a year too soon. He will do well if he remains calm, stays on the road and doesn't try too hard to match or beat Verstappen.

5 Valtteri Bottas

ALEX KALINAUCKAS (@Nauckas) Based on how he ended last year, Bottas needs a miracle turnaround to keep his drive for 2020. With Esteban Ocon waiting in the wings, only a close second to Hamilton in the drivers' standings would do the job, and I just don't see that happening.

BA Bottas should start strongly again, especially if the Mercedes is not at its best initially. I don't expect a repeat of last year's winless campaign, but I'm not convinced he can find a way to match Hamilton as that combination of car and driver improves, thus I fear Bottas and his new beard will fade away again as the season progresses.

JR A crucial year for Bottas with his prospects at Mercedes on the line. He'll start stronger than Lewis but as the pressure builds, his future will be questioned and the team will once again put all its efforts behind Hamilton.

AC Bottas has got his head together over the winter, but the days of a Mercedes driver starting and finishing second even an on off-weekend have long gone.

SM After a winless season, Bottas should bounce back this year. And he will, because he's an excellent driver, so there should be victories (plural) for the Finn, but not quite enough to be on Hamilton's level.

AvdB He'll bag lots of fastest lap bonus points.

4 Max Verstappen

PE I'm a contrarian by nature and maybe that's why I haven't bought Red Bull's idyllic start to life with Honda, or at least the perception that they are ready to fight for victory on merit. Verstappen will be the star of 2019, though, but I don't think his car will be a championship challenger.

EDD STRAW (@eddstrawF1) This is likely to be a season of some great results and difficult weekends. The result overall will be similar to previous seasons, but will set the foundations for a 2020 title tilt.

KT One of the most exciting talents on the grid is still waiting for his championship chance. That probably won't come in the first year of the Red Bull-Honda partnership, but the signs are he'll again be able to shoot for race wins. And Verstappen is bound to benefit from being clear number one in the team now that Ricciardo has moved on.

ERWIN JAEGGI (@jaeggi) Max is all grown up now and ready to take on the big boys for the title. The big question however is: is Honda ready? The Red Bull bosses have used every opportunity they got to say how good the Honda engine is and how crap Renault's power unit was. Now it's time to find out if their optimism is justified.

AK Red Bull is still likely to be the third best team in 2019, but Verstappen will again produce the relentless attacking drives to which F1 has become accustomed. Hopefully his time spent observing Formula E stewarding decisions will curtail his rashest moments.

AC Red Bull will surely win races in 2019 with Honda, and as last year there could be weekends where the car is genuinely the fastest package. Will it be quick and reliable enough to keep Verstappen in the title battle? On balance I think not, but he will be a wildcard on many weekends.

BA He'll win a race or two and vindicate Red Bull's decision to ditch Renault for Honda, but I don't expect a full title tilt this season.

3 Charles Leclerc

AK Given this is just his second season in F1, let alone his first in a frontrunning team, my prediction of Leclerc being champion might seem wildly optimistic. But having witnessed first-hand just how Leclerc dominated Formula 2 on his way to the title in his rookie year - the first driver to do that in eight years and in the Pirelli tyre (and GP2) era - and deal with the death of his father in the middle of that suggests he has what it takes to thrive under pressure at the top.

VK Even if all the hype could leave you believing otherwise, Leclerc is not infallible, does not walk on water or heal the sick with his touch. But you don't need any of that to win the championship in the fastest car, and what you do need - pure speed, a cool head and adaptability - he's got in spades.

MJ Leclerc could be the speedbump in Sebastian Vettel's path to a title. Leclerc is proven at every level, and is the driver I've been most excited about for nearly a decade. He has the attitude, aptitude and intelligence to really cement his reputation here. I just hope this doesn't derail Ferrari.

BA The motorsport world expects great things from Leclerc, but he will need time to properly find his feet at Ferrari. I expect him to win a race, outqualify Hamilton and Vettel on occasion, and help Ferrari win the constructors' championship by regularly beating Bottas.

AC It's clear to all that Leclerc will be a star this year - he will win races and possibly keep himself in the title battle until quite a late stage. But the momentum will be behind Vettel, and at some stage the team will have to put its full weight behind him too. Everyone knows that time is on Leclerc's side.

2 Lewis Hamilton

BA Although Ferrari looks in its best shape of the hybrid era so far and starts as favourite after a strong two weeks of pre-season testing, I still have doubts that it can go toe to toe with Mercedes in the development race and come out on top. Ditching Maurizio Arrivabene won't necessarily change things in that respect, and I expect Mercedes and Hamilton, even if they start slowly, will get stronger and again overpower Ferrari as the year progresses.

AC Even if Ferrari generally has the faster package, Hamilton will keep the fight alive - but this time it might not be quite enough.

SM A big part of the decision not to put Hamilton #1 is more about what is expected of Ferrari than thinking Mercedes has lost its way. Hamilton will lead the line, so to speak, for the Silver Arrows and expect him to put in some virtuoso performances. But all empires fall eventually.

PE I stand by my now-usual prediction that no one will beat Mercedes in the current hybrid era. Even if Mercedes starts the year behind Ferrari, its ability to develop its car and a team that has had stability for several years will eventually emerge on top. And naturally, Hamilton will be there to deliver.

JR It will take Hamilton a few races to get his head around the W10 and the challenge posed by Ferrari. He'll finish the season in a stronger position, but Vettel should already have done enough to pip him to the crown.

AvdB There will be times when he is unbeatable. But all winning runs come to an end, and I think Merc's time is due.

ES Mercedes looks set to start the season behind, but previous form means you have to go with Hamilton and Mercedes given how they get stronger as the season goes on.

JBL Sure, Mercedes looks like it's a little behind Ferrari going into the start of the season - but is there seriously any doubt that the Silver Arrows doesn't have the resource to turn it around? Hamilton's at the peak of his powers, with Bottas as rear gunner and a 1000-strong army spread across Brackley and Brixworth in support. It's hard to bet against title number six.

1 Sebastian Vettel

SM Ferrari seems to have kicked off 2019 with an advantage over Mercedes, and certainly a bigger one than it might have enjoyed at any point last year. With a new calm in the team and Vettel apparently happier than we've seen in a while, this should be his year to finally get back to title-winning ways.

AvdB With a good car and the team behind him he's going to prove the doubters wrong and nail it this season.

VK Vettel is already an all-time F1 great, but his career arc will feel incomplete if he can't win a title at Ferrari. He knows this better than anyone, and the pressure that clearly got to him last year will only increase as Ferrari heads into 2019 as favourite.

EJ The pressure on Seb is mounting. And Ferrari and Vettel usually don't cope well with pressure.

AC Notwithstanding the threat from Mercedes and Red Bull, Vettel will have his hands full fending off team-mate Leclerc. How Ferrari deals with that is one of the biggest challenges new boss Mattia Binotto faces. But after 10 years at the pinnacle of the sport Vettel should have the chops to come out on top over the balance of the season, assuming that he keeps his head together.

KT The Ferrari looked so good in testing it's hard not to see Vettel as favourite. We know he can control a race from the front and, if Ferrari keep its edge over Mercedes for long enough, he should be able to make the most of it. That in turn should mean Vettel is more mentally robust when the time comes to go wheel-to-wheel. Surely he won't make the same mistakes as in 2017 and 2018? A good start will also be crucial before new team-mate Leclerc gets fully up to speed.

ES Pre-season testing makes him favourite, but there are question marks over whether he can beat Hamilton over a season in a close fight.

JR Vettel will start the season in dominant fashion, while Mercedes will ramp up its efforts in the second half of the year. Hamilton will finish the stronger, but Vettel will have done enough to - finally - emulate his hero Michael Schumacher and take the title for Ferrari.

JK With the best car in pre-season testing and the calm hand of Binotto now at the helm, it just feels like this will finally be the year the Vettel-Ferrari combination finally comes good.

MJ Ferrari looks like it's got the car together this year. Vettel is a four-time world champion. Best car and a title-winning driver? Good combo that. However, the Scuderia brains trust needs to sort out its pitwall strategy and its rate of development during the year.

Drivers' championship based on our predictions

The numbers themselves aren't indicative of what we actually predict drivers will score (the format of this feature meant the points come from a 15-race 'season' with very few DNFs...), but show just how close it was for first place when our writers' top 10s were converted into the F1 points system and the scores added up. And here's how a constructors' championship based on our predictions would look:

Constructors' championship based on our predictions