Analysis: the Big Question is Who Goes Where

Juan Pablo Montoya, his Formula One contract with Williams up for renewal, considered his options last week.

"It is probably 95 percent certain I will be here next year, it's just a matter of getting everybody happy," the Colombian said at Hockenheim. "The future can change very quickly ... but I don't think I will be going to Ferrari any time soon to be honest. Not because I wouldn't want to, it's just that there has not been any approach from them whatsoever."

So that's that.

It would be unthinkable, unless Michael Schumacher were suddenly to announce his retirement, for Montoya to leave after establishing himself as the hottest property in Formula One after Ferrari's five times champion.

But while the top teams - Ferrari, Williams, McLaren and Renault - have settled lineups for 2003, the rest of the paddock is in a state of rare ferment. The teams in the spotlight remain the same but the permutation of drivers can change from week to week and sometimes day to day in the rumour mill.

So unsettling has it all become for some that Toyota felt it necessary to issue a statement on Sunday to knock down speculation that Britain's Allan McNish would be booted out before the next race in Hungary. "There is absolutely no truth in reports claiming that Allan McNish will not complete the 2002 Formula One season with Toyota," the Germany-based team said.

Most at Risk

McNish's seat remains one of the most exposed in the Championship, along with that of fellow Briton Eddie Irvine at Ford-owned Jaguar. A betting favourite to replace the Scot is Brazilian CART leader Cristiano da Matta, who currently drives for the Toyota-powered Newman-Haas team.

There is a strong chance that Britain's complement of four drivers could be halved by next year. Jaguar are in hot pursuit of Minardi's Australian Mark Webber, who has also been linked to Sauber and can count on staying at his current team if all else fails - and if they survive after a difficult season.

Minardi boss Paul Stoddart told Autosport this week that he would love to retain Webber "but the commercial reality is that I may not be able to hold on to him." A supply of Jaguar's Cosworth engines could sweeten that particular deal.

Irvine, 36, could call it a day but he has been linked to his old team Jordan as a possible replacement for Japan's Takuma Sato if Honda decide to end their engine deal and the team switches to Ford's Cosworth units.

Jaguar's Pedro de la Rosa has a contract for next year but he cannot afford to rest easy either.

Floating Frentzen

Floating around in the mix are Germany's Heinz-Harald Frentzen and France's Olivier Panis, whose future is up in the air after British American Racing signed Briton Jenson Button from Renault.

Canadian former Champion Jacques Villeneuve has a contract with BAR, but his huge salary is a sore point and Button says he does not know who his teammate will be.

Frentzen's position is complicated by Arrows's fight for survival and he could be a free agent sooner rather than later.

The German is keeping a close eye on the situation and has been linked to Sauber, as a replacement for Brazilian Felipe Massa, and Jordan - the team that sacked Frentzen in 2001 but who have Deutsche Post as their major sponsor.

Jordan tried to get Frentzen back as a stand-in for Giancarlo Fisichella when the Italian crashed in France last month and was unable to qualify.

Malaysian Alex Yoong could find he is out by the time Formula One gathers again in Hungary after the summer break.

The Minardi driver, despite bringing in important sponsorship, has failed to qualify for three races this year and Stoddart has raised the possibility of him being eased into a test role to 'regain his confidence'.

Dutchman Jos Verstappen and Spaniard Fernando Alonso, a Renault driver next year after driving for Minardi last season, have both been floated as possible stand-ins.