Analysis: Schumacher Title Hopes Still in the Balance

Michael Schumacher heads for his home Grand Prix in Germany next week knowing that a mistake or misfortune could cost him a record sixth Formula One Championship.

With five races remaining, the Ferrari driver leads McLaren's Kimi Raikkonen by seven points -- a situation that means the title cannot be decided before the Italian Grand Prix in September at the earliest.

In fact, it is even likelier to go down to the wire after Sunday's British Grand Prix thriller at Silverstone. So volatile is the top of the table, despite Raikkonen remaining Schumacher's constant and closest rival, that each race raises a new scenario.

After France, with Ralf Schumacher riding high following his second successive win for Williams, Germany was swept with excitement at the looming battle of the brothers.

But Ralf failed to score any points at Silverstone, his first blank of the season, and went from within striking range of his older brother to 16 points behind.

Suddenly, his Colombian teammate Juan Pablo Montoya moved into the reckoning in third place overall after finishing runner-up to Ferrari's Rubens Barrichello in a race full of overtaking and drama with a protestor on the track.

Asked how he rated his chances now, Monaco race winner Montoya replied: "Probably better than last weekend but, you know, anything can happen.

"If the next race I win and Michael DNF's (Did Not Finish) then I am four points behind and if he wins and I DNF he is 24 ahead. So I don't know. Just wait and see what happens."

Youngest Champion

Raikkonen, who clawed a point back from Schumacher by finishing third on Sunday to the German's fourth place, could yet become the youngest champion in the history of Formula One.

"It is still open," the 23-year-old said of the title race. "We still have a good chance and the seven points now is one less than before this race. You never know what happens in races and it can turn around completely very quickly in the next race.

"We are pushing hard as a team and we are serious and we will see if we can manage... hopefully we can get it back before the end of the season."

The new points scoring system, with a 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1 format instead of the old 10-6-4-3-2-1, favours the consistent finisher and inflicts a heavy punishment on any driver who suffers a retirement.

If Schumacher were to fail at the next race at Hockenheim, as he did in his home German Grand Prix in 2001 and 2000, Raikkonen would go top even if he finished only second.

It is all a far cry from last year, when Ferrari were dominant and Schumacher had already wrapped up the Championship by this stage.

Ferrari have still won five of 11 races so far this season, but the victories have been spread out far wider than they have for years with seven drivers from four teams winning races.

"They looked a bit stronger, not that much stronger," said Montoya of Ferrari's performance at Silverstone. "From what I remember in testing and long runs they were a lot stronger."

Ferrari technical director Ross Brawn summed up the challenge ahead: "The rest of the season will be difficult, but we have shown what we can do and that we are capable of beating the opposition."