Analysis: Australia to Sort Out Fact from Fiction

If testing times are to be believed, the 2004 Formula One season promises to be closer and more competitive than ever.

Whether they are accurate or illusory is, as Ferrari's Michael Schumacher said recently, the mother of all questions that would only begin to be answered at the first race in Melbourne in two weeks' time.

"A week ago I said that McLaren-Mercedes would be the strongest package right now. That might have changed," this week's Autosport magazine quoted the six times World Champion as saying.

"According to what happened in the Jerez test, I would now say that BMW-Williams and Renault have made a stronger impression on me. But then again we will only know the real deal in Australia and maybe even after only a couple of Grands Prix."

The first chequered flag on March 7 will go some way to sorting out substance from smokescreen - if indeed any of the teams are bluffing.

What is certain is that there have been track records set in Spain and Italy and some surprises since the teams launched their new cars in the past month.

BAR, with Briton Jenson Button and Japanese Takuma Sato, went quicker than anyone in Barcelona last month - albeit on low fuel - but impressed the doubters more at Jerez with top times on two days and second fastest on the third.

"This actually feels normal. If I don't get a podium this year there will be something very wrong," said Button, whose team were fifth in 2003 but could finally realise their potential after years of under-achievement.

Class Act

"I would still not put too much money on BAR," McLaren's Kimi Raikkonen cautioned. "Okay, they are going quick everywhere but we don't really know what is going on."

Renault, fourth last year, have also been fast while Championship runners-up Williams have been right on the pace in Valencia.

McLaren have kept everyone guessing with their new car, Finland's title contender Raikkonen suggesting that it lacked power and then clocking the fastest lap yet at Valencia.

Ferrari's new F2004 went faster on its debut at Fiorano than any of their previous cars, a rite of passage at the start of the season, and Brazilian Rubens Barrichello destroyed the lap record in it at Mugello. Midfield Jaguar, with 20-year-old Austrian rookie Christian Klien at the wheel, notched up the third fastest time of the day at Valencia last Wednesday.

"I suspect it will be a very interesting season with at least four teams at the front and another three that could join them," Williams technical director Patrick Head said. "I'd say that Ferrari and Renault look very strong," Frank Williams said. "I don't think that Ferrari are going to get it wrong, they will have made progress this winter.

"I don't go much for that," he added of suggestions that rivals McLaren might be struggling. "Never underestimate McLaren."

Colombian Juan Pablo Montoya, a title contender in his last season with Williams before joining McLaren in 2005, also expected the usual suspects to dominate.

"I would be surprised if we got to the first race and it wasn't Ferrari, McLaren and Williams in whatever order you want to put them," he said. "Just look at Ferrari. They are more than a second off the pace and they don't look very concerned, do they?"