Analysis: Alonso move throws market open

Only six drivers currently have a firm contracts for 2007: Rubens Barrichello and Jenson Button at Honda; Ralf Schumacher at Toyota; Nick Heidfeld at BMW; Nico Rosberg at Williams; and now Alonso at McLaren.

This means the fight is now underway for what could be up to 16 vacant seats that are up for grabs.

And with such an open battle to get signatures on contracts, it is clearly going to be an advantage to those drivers who can make an early move and get their future sorted out as quickly as possible.

Alonso's move has closed off one of the seats at McLaren, meaning that one of the team's current line-up of Kimi Raikkonen and Juan Pablo Montoya is going to have to move on.

The smart money is already on Raikkonen being that man, with sources claiming earlier this summer that the Finn has already signed some kind of option with Ferrari.

It is no secret that Raikkonen has got frustrated with the reliability issues that have cost him two world titles at McLaren and he would be the perfect fit at Maranello as they ponder a possible replacement for Michael Schumacher.

But Schumacher is by no means certain to hang up his helmet at the end of next season. His impressive return to testing with Ferrari at Jerez last week showed that his motivation has not waned at all - and there have even been wild rumours of a final swansong with Ferrari power at Red Bull Racing for 2007 if he cannot agree a deal to carry on at Maranello.

Ferrari certainly have plenty of options - with Felipe Massa likely to show next season whether or not he has got what it takes to race at the front, while Valentino Rossi will be by that stage more conclusive as to whether he wants an F1 future or not.

But where does Alonso's departure leave Renault? The main question is not who the French squad are considering drafting in to replace the Spaniard (Flavio Briatore has already said that Heikki Kovalainen is '90 percent certain to race for them'), but whether the team will actually compete in 2007 at all.

There have been rumours ever since Renault's CEO Carlos Ghosn was appointed in April that he was never completely convinced about the returns of the massive investment required to compete in F1.

Ghosn is reported to be prepared to lodge his three-year plan for Renault with the company's board on February 9th, amid losses reported and the backdrop of a huge budget cut at the company.

Patrick Faure, Renault Sport chairman, said in an interview with the Bloomberg news agency this week that F1's budget would not be cut next year, although their other motorsport activities could be downsized.

Renault's F1 budget is not as big as that of rival teams, and if the French car manufacturer wants to make cuts throughout the company then in the long term the team's financial situation may get worse - which could have a negative impact on the F1 team's competitiveness.

Ghosn recently made it clear that Renault's achievements in F1 would be measured by car sales in new markets and not by more triumphs on the track.

"The objective will be to associate this winning car, and winning team, to the models we offer our customers on the market," he told Renault guests at a celebration event in Paris last month.

"The campaign around our success will intensify, to show our customers that the reliability and technical excellence of our Formula 1 cars is also that of the products we sell. Furthermore, in the markets where Renault's brand awareness is currently low, we must exploit this success to tell people about Renault, and that Renault are champions."

Renault's decision about their F1 team will likely manifest itself early next year when it becomes clear whether or not they are chasing hard to land a big name to replace Alonso.

As well as Kovalainen, Giancarlo Fisichella will clearly feel he has a chance of remaining after his contract expires at the end of 2006, while Briatore-managed Mark Webber would be another contender after his deal with Williams runs out.

Should any of those men be snapped up elsewhere early next year, then the likelihood is that a decision to pull-out will have been made.

All of these moves will be of little interest to Alonso, however, whose future is now guaranteed. He can instead just focus on retaining his title next year before he begins a new chapter in his career.