Verstappen faces tough Mexico GP weekend – what exactly is Red Bull struggling with?

After nothing but first and second places for Max Verstappen since the F1 summer break, the Mexico GP weekend is more challenging for Red Bull.   

Although the Dutchman topped the timesheets on Friday, he immediately admitted that the long runs were not good enough: “You’re not going to win like this,” he said. A day later, that analysis seemed correct as Verstappen had to settle for fifth place in qualifying and concluded that “nothing worked” with the RB21.   

That last remark fits with the ongoing search for a better set-up direction between Friday and Saturday's sessions.   

“You’re always working on that, of course. But yeah, we tried everything until qualifying and nothing really made it better,” Verstappen said, before adding that one set-up direction gave him a slightly better feeling than another, but the outright pace didn’t come.   

That may sound surprising at a track where Verstappen has already won five times in the past, but he sees it differently: “Those were different times. Last year things didn't work, and that's the last reference I have. And now things aren't working again.”  

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Colin McMaster / LAT Images via Getty Images

Cooling differences between McLaren and Red Bull  

Naturally, the question arises – what exactly is Red Bull struggling with? As always, it's a combination of factors, though McLaren team principal Andrea Stella offered at least one theory on Saturday evening.   

“This is a circuit in which the quality of your cooling system is important,” said the Italian. “If you need to compromise aerodynamics to achieve enough cooling, then the loss of aerodynamic efficiency can be quite rapid.”   

It points to the fact that the more teams need to open up their bodywork with additional cooling inlets, the more it affects the aerodynamic performance of the car.   

According to Stella, Red Bull is having to make greater compromises in that area than McLaren – something that is visually apparent from the larger cooling openings on the RB21.   

“Here we see the return on the investments that we have done for the 2025 car on the cooling system itself, the engineering and the technology,” Stella added.   

As a result, McLaren seems less dependent on additional openings in the bodywork, which can give the team a sporting advantage at venues like Mexico. Stella believes it’s at least one reason behind the difference in performance compared with recent weeks, although he’s cautious about drawing far-reaching conclusions for the upcoming races. “Mexico is not a place, let's say, to judge a car, because there could be a cooling implication that can determine the performance significantly.”  

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Andy Hone/ LAT Images via Getty Images

A vicious circle? Sliding and tyres overheating   

Although cooling is undoubtedly a key factor in Mexico, Verstappen believes it’s not the most important reason for Red Bull’s difficult weekend so far. During his Dutch media round in the paddock, the reigning world champion pointed to another issue – the Pirelli tyres overheating.   

“I think we haven't been very good all season with the tyres overheating. And that's actually quite a big problem here. At altitude, of course, you start sliding and then the tyres heat up a lot immediately. It doesn't suit us, that's very clear.”   

It’s a vicious circle to some extent. All drivers are running high-downforce wing levels, but due to the altitude, that still produces less downforce than in Monza. As a result, mechanical grip becomes more important, and it makes it easier for cars to start sliding as well.   

That’s exactly what Verstappen is referring to. Once his car starts sliding, the tyres overheat – even over a single flying lap. The resulting loss of grip causes even more sliding, which in turn increases overheating. It’s a self-reinforcing process, and in Mexico, it’s particularly punishing.  

Helmut Marko, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Formula 1 via Getty Images

Marko admits: “We went a bit too extreme with ride height”   

Finally, a third factor must be mentioned: ride height. Verstappen struggled particularly in the second sector, mainly through Turn 9, where he had several moments. Asked what was going wrong in the few high-speed corners of the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, Verstappen replied: “Well, watch the onboard, turn up the volume, and you'll hear what's happening there.”   

Verstappen was referring to the Red Bull car bottoming out in Turn 9. According to Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko it's the result of going a bit too extreme with the ride height choice this weekend. “The ride height is crucial, but in the middle sector we were perhaps a little over the limit,” admitted the 82-year-old Austrian.   

Ride height is key to maximising these ground effect cars and sealing the airflow underneath the floor, but going too far brings two risks: if the plank wears down too much from contact with the track, teams risk a DSQ; and excessive bottoming compromises the ride as well.   

It was that latter that hindered Verstappen in qualifying. Because of Red Bull’s risky ride height choice, every bump could cause a moment of imbalance – which happened several times in Turn 9.  

A combination of all these factors has made the Mexico weekend a more difficult one so far for Red Bull. Marko believes the ride height issue won’t be as much of a factor on Sunday, since drivers go slower through the fast corners during a race trim and the car runs slightly higher. “Of course, because the car is higher, and it's more heavy, so you won't touch the ground.”  

Red Bull’s motorsport advisor still considers a podium possible – but Verstappen is less optimistic: “The car just isn't working, and it won't work on Sunday either. Let's just leave it at that.”  

If that is indeed the case, Verstappen knows it has consequences for his hopes of a fifth consecutive world title.  

“You have four races to go after this and then a lot of positive things need to happen,” he said. “I said it before: everything has to be perfect from our side, and this weekend is not like that. If we can make it happen [in the title fight], then that’s great of course. But if it doesn't work out in the end, then it doesn't. I'm not too worried about it.”