2001: A Race Odyssey

So what's going to happen in 2001? You don't need the vision of an Arthur C Clarke (or indeed access to HAL) to predict that Ferrari and McLaren will once again set the pace. But not every element of the old order will continue unchanged. A tyre war rarely does any harm in terms of overall interest, and the arrival of Michelin will upset the F1 apple cart in a big way.

The two leading teams have stuck with Bridgestone, but having signed up Williams, Benetton and Jaguar, the French company has three of the teams most likely to challenge the established frontrunners. As such it is in a stronger position than Bridgestone was on its debut in 1997, when its teams came from the back half of the field.

The consensus is that while the wets are very good, Michelin still has a lot of work to do with its dry tyres. Nevertheless, there will be races when Bibendum will have the upper hand, and the front of the grid has an unfamiliar look. And of course qualifying speed and overall race performance are not necessarily related, adding further spice to the mix. In '97 Bridgestone was particularly strong on twisty tracks like Buenos Aires, the A1-Ring, and of course Budapest. Remember Damon Hill leading in Hungary in an Arrows, or rookie Jarno Trulli to the fore in a Prost in Austria?

It's not just question of which brand a team is on. Even if Bridgestone maintains an advantage, tyres will be crucial. Its products will develop as the season goes on, and the key to the title battle will almost certainly be how well Ferrari and McLaren adapt to those ongoing changes. Tyre X might work perfectly on a Ferrari at a particular track, but it might encourage understeer in a McLaren, or perhaps be used up too quickly on a BAR. Even between team mates there may be alternative preferences, and even for the best engineers it's very easy to get lost in mid-season.

So what else is new in 2001? Crash test and front wing changes have given the teams food for thought over the winter, and while they appear minor, you can never ignore the affect of an aero change at the front - it feeds back to the rest of the car. In such circumstances, those at the sharp end of the field usually manage to do a better job of adjusting. Then there's the spectre of traction control, although its re-introduction has been postponed. Again, when it happens we can safely assume that the leading teams will do the better job of optimising it.

On the driver side, we've undergone one of the biggest shakeouts the market has seen in recent years, although there are no changes in the leading two teams. Johnny Herbert is gone, and it seems that having moved to a management role with Prost, Pedro Diniz will not drive again. Mika Salo, Alex Wurz, Ricardo Zonta and Marc Gene will be testing rather than racing this year. Meanwhile Olivier Panis is back, and Juan Pablo Montoya, Luciano Burti and Kimi Raikkonen spearhead a new generation of young talent. Meanwhile Prost and Arrows have to adjust to new engine suppliers, and several teams have lost or gained key technical personnel.

Here, in championship and therefore pitlane order, is how the teams shape up:

: There are no changes to the successful recipe, and Michael Schumacher will be as hungry as ever. But of course the big question is what will happen to the team's collective motivation. Will the title victory mean that Ferrari loses the edge that has driven the team on for the past few seasons? Or will the fact that the spell cast in 1979 has finally be broken mean that everyone can relax and therefore perform on an even higher level without the same relentless pressure? We shall see. Of greater interest is what happens towards the end of the year, when those who plan to jump ship when their contracts run out make their decisions known...

: Again, no major changes to a familiar package, although the technical department has lost aero expert Henri Durand to Prost, and R&D head Steve Nichols to Jaguar. Having abandoned CART, Mercedes and Ilmor can now focus even more strongly on the F1 programme, and that will have obvious benefits. There's no doubt that defeat in 2000 will encourage both the team and Mika Hakkinen to fight back strongly this year, but having said that last year's campaign was very draining and losing will not necessarily make it any easier to scale the heights.

: A strong third in 2000, in theory Williams should consolidate that position as BMW puts into practice lessons learned in its first season. The big unknown is of course Michelin, but there's already a strong synergy between the partners. The progress of Juan Montoya will be one of the major talking points of the season; don't expect him and Ralf Schumacher to become drinking buddies.

Renault support came too late to make much difference last year, but as the team gears up for the change to factory colours in 2002, forward progress should be made. Renault has already pushed the limits with its latest engine design. As with Williams the performance of Michelin will be the key, although it seems likely that Benetton may not have first say when Michelin determines what direction to take. Overall, the engine/tyre package suggests this could be an interim year. Jenson Button's arrival provides a welcome breath of fresh air and gives Giancarlo Fisichella the competition he needs to keep him on his toes, while Mike Gascoyne provides the technical depth that has been lacking in recent years.

: The team was on the up last year, and it may benefit from the departure of several immediate rivals to the Michelin camp. The focus will be on the battle with Jordan, who will do everything possible to gain Honda's favour. Much is expected of Olivier Panis, and he will certainly bring useful technical knowledge from the posh end of the pitlane. But Jacques Villeneuve remains the trump card. The pressure to keep him happy - and on board for 2002 - will be enormous.

Like BAR, Jordan will benefit more often than not from being on Bridgestones, and there's no doubt that works Honda power will be extremely valuable. However, the team also has to deal with the political baggage that comes with the Japanese company's support. Last year was disappointing, and the team has to fight back.

Tom Walkinshaw had a great little package last year, but this year's form represents a bit of a unknown. Let's face it, the Asiatech/Peugeot engine is unlikely to be better, over the course of a season, than the customer Supertec was last year. Mystery still surrounds the whole arrangement, and it remains to be seen how the deal will shake out.

The Swiss team has drifted along at the back of the midfield for many years, but for 2001 the normally conservative outfit has taken a bold decision which may provide the impetus for some forward progress. Not so long ago the choice of a guy in only his second season would have seemed quite a radical decision. But Peter Sauber has taken on not only Nick Heidfeld but also rookie Kimi Raikkonen, the man who has thrown away the F1 career guide by skipping F3 and F3000. The youngsters will inspire each other and the team, but has Sauber made the right choice at a time when rivals are insisting on veterans even for testing roles?

The team has a terrible first year under its new name, but the only way is up. New boss Bobby Rahal has already made his presence felt, and provides essential leadership - the buck stops with him. There's been a major shake-up on the technical team, with Gary Anderson going and new technical director Steve Nichols and aerodynamicist Mark Handford coming in. Both men arrived too late to have a hand in the R2, but they can influence its development. Luciano Burti has little to lose and everything to gain, and is in the happy position of being able to leave the rookie spotlight to Montoya and Raikkonen.

Your guess is as good as mine as to what's happening down in Faenza right now. One can only assume that Bernie Ecclestone is doing everything he can to ensure that the Italian team has a future...

The Ferrari engine package gives the team a solid base, but it also places an incredible burden on the team, financially and otherwise. Maranello holds all in the cards in what is not a very equal relationship, but Alain Prost had few options. I'm told that this year's supply will cost $28m, and the team has to hand over $2m every month - and a massive $6m deposit on next year's deal in September. Bear in mind that last year's Peugeot engines were free, and that main backer Gauloises has also gone, and you appreciate that the team is in difficult situation. However, apart from Minardi it is the only outfit in a position to create a totally new identity to please major new sponsors.

Finally, this is also going to be the final season for ITV's Murray Walker. He missed one race last year, but I don't think any of us can really imagine what life will be like without him, or how hard it's going to be for Murray to hand over the microphone to his successor. Although perhaps I do have some idea of how he will feel come October. When I left the fulltime staff of Autosport to go freelance back in 1992, my job, my desk, my phone number and even my company VW Golf were taken over by an ambitious new guy. His name was James Allen...