The signs that suggest an immediate Red Bull resurgence in F1's Japanese GP

There we go then. As brilliant as Red Bull's RB19 is, it will not go down as unique in Formula 1's history as the first car to be taken to every single campaign race win.

Carlos Sainz's victory in the 2023 Singapore Grand Prix was utterly brilliant. He and Ferrari nailed every important call and stressful moment, backed up beautifully by Charles Leclerc – particularly in his confidence to take soft tyres for the start to pass Mercedes’ George Russell, which Leclerc knew would be a boon for his team-mate.

But there was a second equally important theme in the story of the Singapore event. What happened to Red Bull and how it got so knocked off course. Now, as Formula 1 heads to its next race in Japan, the key question is: will that happen again at Suzuka?

Insight: 10 things we learned from the 2023 Singapore GP

As was covered last week, Red Bull knew it was in danger of losing its 14-race 2023 victory streak based on what it had already calculated from its pre-Singapore simulator preparation. The tyre warm-up issue we highlighted indeed came to pass, with Sergio Perez saying after qualifying a lowly P13 that things were “very marginal on where we need to be”, but he just couldn’t get the critical temperature window and if he did he slid out of it quickly. At that same time, Max Verstappen was also sliding massively with the rubber not as usually compliant to the RB19’s requirements, particularly late in a lap.

But the much bigger factor in Red Bull’s Singapore defeat was revealed through the practice sessions: it simply couldn’t set-up its car to cope with the track’s bumpy nature and still maintain its typical balance, which so devastates the rest on smoother courses.

As former Red Bull aerodynamics chief and now Aston Martin technical director Dan Fallows noted sagely given his experience of his previous team’s workings, "you tend to have to run the cars maybe higher than at other circuits" and he felt "Red Bull are the most obvious example of that" in 2023.

Red Bull struggled to set-up its car to match Singapore's bumpy track surface, which contributed to its first 2023 defeat

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Red Bull had to raise its ride height to ensure underfloor plank wear compliance and in doing so took things outside of the usually wide operating range of its 2023 challenger. Set-up changes it knew it would have to make just weren’t working as hoped, with Verstappen even saying after he was knocked out in Q2 for the first time since his Jeddah driveshaft issue that “FP3 was not too bad, but then we tried a few more things on the car for qualifying where it tipped it over to the car being undriveable again”.

The RB19s were bottoming out on Singapore’s braking zone bumps and sliding across the kerbs. The Marina Bay layout into the rebranded Turn 16 made the big rise there more of a critical compression area thanks to the higher speeds the cars were now arriving at with the previous four corners removed.

That all explains why Red Bull was eliminated shockingly early in qualifying. But it was still mighty in race trim. This machine truly is a successor to Ferrari’s famed F2004 in this regard.

Here we must consider that car’s maker again. Ferrari’s tactics having secured track position on a layout where overtaking is very hard anyway without a considerable tyre delta were spot on. By controlling the pace with Sainz up front, it meant no one in the pack could risk pitting and then getting stuck in traffic.

It's possible that Suzuka will reveal something has changed with Red Bull's real performance in relation to the rest thanks to this, however. But far more likely is that the team will return to its previous dominant position

This actually played into Red Bull's hand with its contra-strategy approach for both Verstappen and Perez starting on the hard tyres, but the timing of the safety car intervention following Logan Sargeant’s lame solo crash undid that. Ferrari also then wanted the pack compressed after the restart for the same reason as before.

PLUS: The Singapore secrets that helped Sainz end Verstappen's F1 winning streak

By doing this, it was not tested on tyre degradation – its limitation for so long now. Sainz’s comments on how “as I started pushing, my tyre degradation started to kick in – Lando [Norris] and I were sliding a lot” suggest this factor might’ve become critical if the scarlet squad had encountered different race circumstances last Sunday.

The upcoming event at Suzuka will really test Ferrari’s progress on tyre degradation as this track hits the highest levels of tyre stress and lateral movement across the F1 season, plus the asphalt here is very abrasive. In isolation that will mean a challenge, even if this is mitigated somewhat by the track’s figure-of-eight layout meaning all four car corners are tested relatively equally. But recent high temperatures at Suzuka could mean the drivers get a real test if these are repeated this weekend, as is forecast.

Verstappen's pace on medium tyres in Singapore was strong as he charged back following his pitstop

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Verstappen’s pace on his medium tyres in Red Bull’s second Singapore stint was just startling. While not Mercedes-fast in the chase up front at the end, thanks to the Dutchman starting his run to the flag four laps earlier and having to pass nearly half the field after rejoining, Verstappen surely must be considered a possible victory candidate had the safety car not really wrecked his day.

Things are of course more complicated thanks to the strategy variances that likely would’ve played out in a different race, but Verstappen lost nearly 30s to Sainz with a green flag pitstop and only came home 21.4s behind. That suggests that had there been no real or virtual safety car, Verstappen’s pace would’ve been a factor in how Sainz treated holding up his pursuers on the hards. That is impressive given how hard a weekend this was for Red Bull.

Of course, the Singapore event was important for the matters of the flexi-wing and flex-floor clampdown through Technical Directives 18 and 39 – the latter updated from June 2022 when it was introduced as a method to eliminate porpoising. These were now aimed at reducing the flexing wing movement spotted since the early rounds of 2023 at several teams, plus reduce apparent plank movement to gain downforce the FIA had begun to suspect was also occurring within the tolerance on stiffness in this part allowed by the rules.

Red Bull team boss Christian Horner was unequivocal that Red Bull had “not changed a single component on our car – zero” in response to the TDs coming into force. Red Bull did introduce a new floor and rear wing endplate tweaks last weekend, but these were circuit specific changes and in any case it went back to its older floor specification after practice.

The TD timing was important for those looking for formbook changes. And this area will be closely watched heading to Japan, as the flexi-wing clampdown was thought to be worth just a tenth a lap around Singapore and its stop/start nature, but could be much more important elsewhere. Rival teams actually reckoned Red Bull’s pace loss last weekend was actually too much to be explained by the TD clampdowns alone.

It's possible that Suzuka will reveal something has changed with Red Bull's real performance in relation to the rest thanks to this, however. But far more likely is that the team will return to its previous dominant position. And in any case, race pace this weekend will be heavily masked by the track’s tyre management demands.

Red Bull’s race performance in Singapore’s tricky strategy challenge points to a quick resurgence at Suzuka – Perez’s clumsy clashes aside. There it should be able to run its typical low ride heights, which suggests a lesser set-up challenge. That would be a big boost in itself. But perhaps the biggest Japan form clue for this season’s leading team comes from Verstappen’s comments post-qualifying.

“I'm confident that we go to Suzuka and the car is fast again,” said the world champion. “It already felt like that also in the simulator [for Singapore] that this was a difficult set-up window for the car. Then we went to Suzuka [digitally] and it just felt amazing again like most of the races.”

Sim work for Japan hints at Red Bull returning to form

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images