I took the laptimes from yesterday’s running to create an adjusted lap time as if they were all on soft tyres. I have only taken the run length that they did their best time on and adjusted that to suit the fuel load at 0.05s per lap. It’s impossible to know the fuel loads, but you can make some judgements based on the run length.
For tyres, I have adjusted the lap times by 0.3s per compound, which seems a decent average delta. But it depends on what the car balance is like and how it suits the compound, which is why it will vary from car to car.
The Red Bull runs certainly look strong based on this, but bear in mind it has been known to run with a lower fuel level than its rivals in testing, while Mercedes is often very heavy.
Adjusted times
1 Red Bull 1m18.347s
2 Mercedes 1m18.750s
3 Renault 1m18.792s
4 Ferrari 1m18.891s
5 Williams 1m19.449s
6 Haas 1m19.737s (suspect lower fuel than some)
7 McLaren 1m20.206s
8 Sauber 1m20.218s (probably lower fuel than most)
9 Force India 1m20.455s
10 Toro Rosso 1m20.623s (identical to the adjusted time from day 1)