Liberty's F1 reign will be judged on current global crises, not 2021

Up until a few weeks ago, the view of many in Formula 1 was that the success or failure of its owner Liberty Media could only be properly judged depending on how its 2021 rules vision panned out.

After all, many of the problems that F1 has faced since the American media giant took over had lingered before Liberty's staff had got their feet under the desks.

Several key factors that have been at the core of F1's problems in recent years, such as the huge pay gulf between the top teams and the rest, a governance structure that had crippled the sport by giving too much power to the competitors, and the charge towards pay TV were all consequences of Bernie Ecclestone's watch.

With Liberty's hands tied by agreements, rather than being able to put in place the steps that it had wanted to, it's hard to truly gauge how effective the new bosses have been.

There have been successes: the impact of its Netflix series, its sudden explosion on social media and the addition of new races in Holland and Vietnam, but there have also been failures: F1 TV's early streaming stumbles, and the failure to attract the big money sponsors that had been promised. But there had not quite been enough for a definitive thumbs up or thumbs down, and the decision of many to continue to reserve judgement was in response to the focus having been put on the efforts for an F1 revamp in 2021.

The all-new rules to help overtaking, the arrival of a cost cap and a wholly different way of running the championship were going to give us a much better means of judging Liberty's worth in charge of F1.

As F1's managing director of motorsport Ross Brawn said recently: "I think this new era, where we try and identify what are the objectives of Formula 1 and how do we best nurture them and create the right environment, it is exciting and I think it is a necessary approach to maintaining F1 where it is."

Waiting to see how it all played out seemed to be the best approach.

But now, as F1 heads to its season opener in Australia this weekend, it does so under some very dark clouds - and it looks like they will be defining for Liberty long before we get to 2021.

At a time when governments are taking extraordinary measures, having a series seem so comfortable in having thousands of paddock members travel around the world leaves it open to suggestions that it is not taking matters seriously enough

It is often said that there is no better way of judging the effectiveness of leadership than in how it handles a crisis, and Liberty finds itself at the centre of some pretty big ones.

The first area is one that every government and sporting organisation is currently having to deal with: coronavirus.

The viral outbreak has already had a dramatic impact on many people's lives, and F1 is certainly not going to be immune from its threats. Although the decision to postpone the Chinese Grand Prix seemed swift and decisive, especially considering how little was understood about the virus back in January, F1 has since given off the impression of simply wanting everything to carry on as normal.

While other major events worldwide have been cancelled in a bid to try to limit community transmission, F1 has been openly determined to keep races on. As was apparent from the postponement of the Chinese GP, Liberty's stance is not to be the first to blink over stopping events. Its contracts mean that if it cancels races, then it loses the valuable promoter's fee - so it obviously prefers to stay silent and let the venues decide.

That's a scenario that leaves F1 open to putting itself in a compromising situation. If the race organisers don't want to lose their grand prix slot and their fee, then the incentive is to push on and keep fingers crossed that things will be OK. But what happens when hope isn't enough?

At a time when governments are taking extraordinary measures, which has included all of Italy being put in lockdown, having a series seem so comfortable in having thousands of paddock members travel around the world leaves it open to suggestions that it is not taking matters seriously enough.

Indeed, there was a very telling comment from the Bahrain organisers at the weekend when they announced that they were going to ban spectators for their grand prix later this month.

In a statement, organisers said: "Given the continued spread of COVID-19 globally, convening a major sporting event, which is open to the public and allows thousands of international travellers and local fans to interact in close proximity would not be the right thing to do at the present time."

But that has not stopped Australia going ahead as normal, and Vietnam too appears all set to happen.

F1's only official response so far has been to issue a statement saying it was taking all precautions possible in its 'scientific response' to the problem.

Yet, it will likely take just one coronavirus case in the paddock on a grand prix weekend to prompt a major drama, especially if it's someone taken down inside F1's critical broadcast and logistics centre. And with a trait of coronavirus being that symptoms don't show up until well after the patient has been infected, it means it will likely have spread a lot around the paddock by the time the first case emerges in public.

What damage also could there be to F1's image if outbreaks accelerate in countries shortly after the paddock has visited, or the virus is brought back to the families of people working in the sport? Can the scientific advisors that F1 is consulting really be sure that the risks of continuing as normal are not that great, and that it can avoid an outbreak in the paddock or grandstands? Sometimes in life, it is better to be safe than sorry.

In the end, the final decision about this season's F1 races may well be taken by world governments, which could limit travel from their countries or simply ban certain nationalities unless they have completed a spell in quarantine.

It was the latter move that scuppered the MotoGP season opener in Qatar, and it could yet be the defining moment as F1 heads into the European phase of the season - for this is a problem that stretches well beyond the first few races.

F1 is certainly not immune from the outside world in this respect, which is why its share price has collapsed (in line with the stock markets) by almost a third in the last two weeks to a level lower than when Liberty took over.

The potential cancellation of races will heap even more pressure on its finances, as the true cost of losses could stretch to hundreds of millions of dollars. That will in turn be particularly troublesome for its investors and teams, whose incomes would suffer dramatically.

But it's not just the issue of coronavirus that Liberty is having to deal with, because it is at the helm of a paddock that is facing its biggest political war for years.

Populations are looking to their leaders to act strongly and with conviction in doing the right thing for everyone, and F1 is no different

The FIA's controversial settlement with Ferrari over the legality of its 2019 engine has left seven teams on the grid furious - and such was their collective anger that they got together to issue a joint statement last week calling out the governing body for what has happened. As a follow up to that, the teams wrote a joint letter to the FIA with a long series of questions they wanted answered about its decision and the impact.

The deadline for its response comes before this weekend's Australian Grand Prix, and anything less than total transparency over the matter is unlikely to quell the heightened feelings. The teams have been clear that they will consider legal action over the matter: which could be especially fuelled if some teams feel that their position in the constructors' championship (and therefore the commercial rights income they received) was affected by the matter.

The battle at the moment is very much one between the FIA and teams but, as the category's owner, Liberty needs to show leadership in such a matter to ensure that however it plays out does not descend into a damaging civil war.

In the past, Ecclestone would have been at the centre of such a matter, working proactively as the ringmaster to ensure that a settlement was reached with enough compromises on both sides. Neither side would feel that they had ultimately won nor lost but were invariably happy with the result.

For Liberty, there are also ongoing concerns over the manner of which the 2021 rules have been framed.

Teams fear that the regulations will handcuff their designers too much, and would rid F1 of the attention-grabbing innovation that was ignited by the arrival of Mercedes' DAS system, and that the cost gulf between the top teams and smaller outfits will be just as large as the budget cap arrives only a year later.

There is a danger too that we could lose one or two teams in the meantime. Will a drop in 2020 prize money, allied to the worldwide economic slowdown prompted by coronavirus, suddenly make the finances of the smaller teams unfavourable?

Gene Haas has already said that his team's future in F1 will rest on its start to the season, so if he decides he has had enough, is there a buyer out there ready to step in?

Amid alarming times for the world, populations are looking to their leaders to act strongly and with conviction in doing the right thing for everyone. Sitting back and hoping problems go away is simply not an option.

F1 is no different, and all eyes are now on Liberty for how it deals with what it has on its plate. The next few weeks will tell us exactly what it is really made of.