Can Sainz emulate his world champion lineage?

The Sainz family has spanned the recent transition between decades in dynamic style.
 In Abu Dhabi Carlos snatched sixth in the Formula 1 world championship by a single point at the 2019 season finale; seven weeks later his 57-year-old father scored his third victory on 
the Dakar rally raid.

A potent combination of talent and professionalism is clearly hard-wired into their DNA, and the McLaren driver continues to be inspired by his dad, who was working out in a sauna at 7am each day in the build-up to competing in the desert.

The younger Sainz has focused on playing squash and on boxing to further improve his physical and mental skills, but will we ever see him emulate his father's greatest achievement in becoming a world champion?

The approaching season is a key period in answering that question. By delivering strong results, Sainz will further cement his position in a team that has recovered much of its mojo.
 New rules and Mercedes power units for 2021 offer McLaren a great opportunity to resume position at the very top of grand prix racing and, with a fresh contract in place, Sainz could be in a prime slot for a title challenge.

But other avenues do exist. His recent exploits claimed the attention of rival teams and in Autosport's 2019 Team Principals' driver rankings he was placed seventh, ahead of Daniel Ricciardo and just a few points behind Sebastian Vettel. Perhaps a drive in an established top team will appear for Sainz?

Ferrari and Red Bull have already chosen their key drivers for the next few years in Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen respectively, but question marks surround both seats alongside them, and who knows what will happen at Mercedes?

When McLaren came along offering a two-year deal, Sainz saw the prospect of stability and generating results from a new foundation

Red Bull brought Sainz into Formula 1 in the first place and recently the junior driver programme's stalwart leader Helmut Marko dismissed any idea that it was a mistake to let him go.
 "He is no Verstappen," he remarked, "there's a [performance] difference between the two."

In their first season together Verstappen outscored Sainz by 31 points, but in qualifying there was usually little to choose between them. Some errors by Carlos in wet sessions, such as crashing out in the opening moments of Q1 in Austin, lost him vital points. He recovered to finish seventh 
in that race but Verstappen capitalised on a top-10 grid position by finishing fourth, matching his best result of the year and further underlining his future-star status.

They remained team-mates for just four more races in 2016 before Verstappen was promoted to Red Bull and took that sensational first win in Barcelona. No doubt gnashing his teeth, Sainz responded effectively, outscoring new team-mate Daniil Kvyat 42 points to four over the rest of the season. Encouraged, Red Bull kept Sainz on its books for the next two years, but he was loaned to Renault, going head-to-head with the highly-rated Nico Hulkenberg.

Sainz was just over a tenth of a second slower in qualifying in 2018 on average and finished 16 points behind. But, while Hulkenberg had a secure deal in place, Sainz's contract with Red Bull was up for renewal - and his Renault seat seemed destined to go to Esteban Ocon.

When McLaren came along offering a two-year deal, Sainz saw the prospect of stability and generating results from a new foundation. Meanwhile, Ricciardo surprised many by swapping Red Bull for Renault, leaving Ocon out in the cold (until now). Rather than recalling Sainz from his loan, Red Bull chose to go with Pierre Gasly. That worked well then... Factors beyond performance would have influenced that decision. Integration, teamwork, and cooperation all count; when Carlos and Max were team-mates at Toro Rosso those factors were lacking. Each driver wanted to swing the team in their own favour, which led to a tricky atmosphere in a tight-knit environment.

Marko felt that Carlos Sr failed to look at the situation objectively and did only what was best for his son, but Jos Verstappen was doing much the same on the other side of the garage. Red Bull presumably wanted to avoid that complicated dynamic being repeated, preferring to create a structure that would allow Max to soar.

Sainz appears to be thriving in the McLaren stable and is clearly relishing the season ahead. Whatever happens it seems unlikely he'll go back to Red Bull in the foreseeable future

Released from the Marko mindset and immersed at McLaren, Sainz embodied all those other factors with a vengeance. At the new car launch in 2019, he actively engaged with the press, with team personnel and new team-mate Lando Norris and that relationship has snowballed.

McLaren created a true unity last year and Sainz's contribution was fundamental. His accomplishments reached a crescendo with a superb podium in Brazil from last on the grid and, while he finished behind Gasly that day, he still beat him in the final reckoning.

Sainz appears to be thriving in the McLaren stable and is clearly relishing the season ahead. Whatever happens it seems unlikely he'll go back to Red Bull in the foreseeable future and, while Ferrari could be interested if Vettel decides to pack it in, Ricciardo currently has more boxes ticked as a proven race winner and a Vettel-beater from their year together at Red Bull in 2014.

Would Toto Wolff go for Sainz if either Lewis Hamilton or Valtteri Bottas leave Mercedes? Or would he rather bank on George Russell whose data has been studied and admired? Sainz has to focus on the here and now, because developing both his reputation and the deep integration with McLaren will continue to push doors open.

From a solid base built in 2019 he needs to demonstrate an extra edge of qualifying pace and continue the race consistency. In doing so, he will raise his profile another notch and it may be that in dropping him, Red Bull has given Sainz greater opportunities to become a world champion outside its grasp than he would ever have had within it.