How Ferrari can produce an overnight miracle

History tells us Sochi is Mercedes territory. Not only has it won all the Formula 1 races there in the world championship era, but Benz machinery also won both of the little-remembered pre-World War 1 Russian Grands Prix in St Petersburg. The present tells a similar story.

But there's a bigger, more significant tale in the fight for the world championship, because Ferrari simply did not look at the races during Friday practice. After winning June's Canadian GP, Sebastian Vettel described Ferrari's turnaround after day one of practice as "a miracle" - and for the sake of his world championship chances he needs another this weekend.

Why? Because not only was Lewis Hamilton fastest for Mercedes on Friday, but Red Bull was also ahead. While that isn't a major concern for race day given both Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen face grid penalties because Red Bull has reintroduced Renault's 'spec B' engine, the pace deficit to the front is reason to be alarmed.

"Tricky," said Vettel of Friday practice. "We struggled a bit for one-lap [pace] but also in the long run we went through our tyres a bit harder and quicker than the rest. So we need to have a look, but just looking at ourselves it wasn't a good day. In terms of feel for the car, there's more that we need to get to."

It's Friday, so the usual caveats apply, but everyone at Ferrari knows some serious progress needs to be made. Yes, the track will evolve over the next 24 hours and, yes, Ferrari will make strides overnight as it always does, but this requires a big turnaround and that it will leapfrog Mercedes is far from a foregone conclusion.

Hamilton's single-lap pace advantage over the best non-Mercedes, Max Verstappen's Red Bull, was 0.442 seconds, with Vettel a tenth of a second further back. This was based on using the hypersoft Pirellis, which offered serious grip but suffered from rapid thermal degradation.

Single-lap pace

1 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m33.385s
2 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m33.827s
3 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m33.928s
4 Force India (Perez), 1m35.122s
5 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m35.137s
6 Sauber (Ericsson), 1m35.295s
7 Haas (Magnussen), 1m35.331s
8 Renault (Sainz),1m35.341s
9 McLaren (Alonso), 1m36.074s
10 Williams (Sirotkin), 1m36.861s

But there is a point of mitigation here for Vettel, who had to clear traffic on his fastest lap. This potentially cost him a couple of tenths, meaning the gap to Mercedes has been distorted, and suggesting things will not be so clear cut come qualifying.

Ferrari's deficit based on long-run pace was actually bigger - it increased from 0.543s on a single lap to 0.624s. This was based on Vettel's pace on a slightly troubled long-run using the ultrasofts, which are a stronger race tyre than the hypersofts. Even that long run started sooner than planned after Vettel spun early in his stint on hypersofts, again suggesting Ferrari is struggling.

Raikkonen complained of problems with rear graining that at one stage he claimed made it feel like he had a puncture. That, combined with the fact Vettel struggled with degradation on his ultrasoft run, suggests Ferrari can make up ground overnight on tyre management.

So far, so bad for Ferrari. But there are some positives that mean there's a realistic chance that things could indeed turn around come Saturday.

Firstly, Ferrari was experimenting with a new front wing, as well as running a modified turning vane under the front of the monocoque. Kimi Raikkonen first trialled this in FP1, then both drivers used it in FP2.

Bottas thinks Ferrari might not have been running at full power, given it wasn't so strong on the straights. There might be even more bhp available than usual when the serious stuff begins

Given the significance of the front wing in terms of setting up the airflow to the rest of the car, it's inevitable that some fine-tuning will be required to get the best out of it and it's not impossible that overnight Ferrari will get on top of it.

Secondly, the circuit is evolving and will change significantly come qualifying. Given Ferrari appeared to make an error in Singapore by working on set-up for the conditions in practice, particularly the day sessions, rather than qualifying conditions it could very easily be that the track will come to the team.

Thirdly, the fact Vettel's qualifying simulation wasn't as good as it could have been thanks to traffic means Ferrari's pace is probably better than it looks.

Fourthly, Raikkonen's pace on softs late in the afternoon was extremely encouraging. It was likely on a lighter fuel load, but his pace averaged out at 1m39.2s, quicker than anything we saw from Mercedes on hypersofts and ultrasofts. It suggests that with the graining and degradation under control, the pace is there.

The fifth and final point is that Valtteri Bottas suggested Ferrari might not have been running at full power engine-wise given it wasn't so strong on the straights. There were signs of the other Ferrari-powered teams doing the same thing, so there might be even more extra bhp available than usual when the serious stuff begins if Ferrari was running ultra conservatively today.

What will be critical is qualifying, for two reasons. Firstly, track position is king at Sochi and whoever leads the first lap is very likely to win. Secondly, it's going to be important to get through Q2 using the ultrasoft Pirellis to avoid using the hypersofts in the race.

We've seen a big turnaround overnight before, so it's time for Ferrari to forget the shakiness of recent times and become the outfit that consistently made race-winning strides overnight again

The big disappointment of what we saw on Friday is that Red Bull looked fast enough at least to stay close to the Mercedes versus Ferrari battle. Generally, Red Bull does slip back when the qualifying engine modes kick in on Saturday, but given this was a weekend the team had chosen as a weak point and the ideal chance to introduce engines for use at high altitude in Mexico and Brazil, this suggests expectations were low.

Asked if he was surprised by how strong Red Bull's times were, Daniel Ricciardo replied: "Slightly, I guess, it depends if that's the real pace. If this was qualifying, I think it would be a bit of a surprise, a pleasant one. The car felt good."

Given both Red Bull drivers will play catch up from lowly grid positions, it's understandable neither driver will get too excited, but given overtaking is difficult at Sochi it will make for an interesting subplot in the race.

"The car worked well, but we know that in qualifying you don't have a chance when they turn up their engines," said Max Verstappen. "But it's good that we are at least in the mix today. If we would be like half-a-second behind already then we definitely would have a lot more work to do. So far, we can't really complain."

But with Red Bull not really in the hunt, the question is can Ferrari find that miracle? The answer is that it can, but it won't be about one magical moment that turns everything around.

If it fettles its upgraded car to get the best out of it, if Vettel avoids traffic on his qualifying lap and nails it, if the track comes to Ferrari a little and if, as is often the case, there's a little time in turning the engine up in Q3, then that could conceivably add up to just that miracle.

But Mercedes, of course, will not rest on its laurels and will make more gains overnight. Hamilton, for example, was giving away a little time to circuit specialist Valtteri Bottas in the middle sector and could yet find more pace. The bottom line is Ferrari needs wins, and the last thing it wants to let happen is for Mercedes to lock out the front row - then Vettel's only hope will be to replicate Bottas's start of 2017 when he leaped from third to first by Turn 2.

We've seen a big turnaround overnight before, and it's time for Ferrari to put behind it the shakiness of recent times and make itself back into the outfit that consistently made race-winning strides overnight.

"We tried everything today and obviously we were not quick enough, so I don't know if that is a surprise," said Vettel, who took pole position at Sochi last year, after practice.

"The car didn't feel very good and didn't come together so [it's] not a surprise if other people are faster, so to answer the question: we need to find the reasons and hopefully come out of the box strong tomorrow."

Ferrari has done it before, and there's every chance it can do so again. But with Hamilton's 40-point lead in the drivers' championship looking increasingly secure, Ferrari can't afford to let this weekend get away from it.