Why Monza improves Mercedes' odds against Ferrari

The Belgian and Italian Grands Prix are, understandably, lumped together when it comes to consideration of form. They run back to back and are both tracks that heavily privilege power, meaning that after victory at Spa Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari go in as clear favourites.

Monza is a step beyond Spa in terms of its power demands, with 70% of the lap spent at full throttle in Italy, compared to 57% in Belgium. Monza also lacks the challenge of balancing low downforce with the kind of twisty second sector that Spa features - and where Mercedes excelled last weekend.

So, what are the chances of Mercedes turning the tables on Ferrari and denying the pre-race favourite a first Monza victory since Fernando Alonso won here in 2010? According Lewis Hamilton, it's going to be "very tough" - but the circuit configuration does at least give him a bigger glimmer of hope.

Monza, surprisingly for a circuit that features three chicanes, does offer some respite for Mercedes compared to one of its Spa deficiencies. There, Ferrari had the advantage on traction out of the final chicane and, crucially, La Source - both slow speed exits.

You might assume that's bad news for Monza with its three chicanes over 3.6 miles, but as Hamilton explained after the race at Spa, it's not quite as it seems.

"Luckily, apart from Turn 1, it's not that slow," said Hamilton after his Spa second place. "It's just chicanes, so I'm hoping the traction problems we're having in the super-slow corners here, hopefully it won't be as bad."

The first chicane - Roggia - is comfortably the slowest and does not allow drivers to carry much speed through the corner. That puts a big demand on traction to build up the speed for the blast to the second chicane.

The Retifillo Chicane is a little quicker, and allows more speed to be carried in. While it demands traction at the exit, it's nowhere near as critical as the first corner and the blast to the next corner - Lesmo 1 - is short anyway.

Kimi Raikkonen found himself picking up understeer. So, the balance at Ferrari is not perfect

The Ascari chicane - named after double world champion Alberto who was killed at what used to be a fast left-hander in 1955 - is not really a chicane. Instead, it's a rapid left/right/left ess.

But the fact is that Monza is mostly about the straights and that's where Ferrari excels. So, there's little in the track configuration to give Mercedes reason to expect to be faster, even if it has won all four grands prix here during the 1.6-litre V6 hybrid era.

While Friday's first session was rendered moot by rain, the afternoon's running was more straightforward. At least, it was once Marcus Ericsson had got his massive accident at the first corner out of the way after his Sauber's DRS failed to close.

On pace, to nobody's surprise, Ferrari was indeed first and second, with Sebastian Vettel setting a best time 0.287 seconds faster than the lead Mercedes of Hamilton.

Single-lap pace

1 Ferrari (Vettel) 1m21.105s
2 Mercedes (Hamilton) 1m21.392s
3 Red Bull (Verstappen) 1m22.154s
4 Force India (Ocon) 1m22.930
5 Sauber (Leclerc) 1m22.965s
6 Renault (Hulkenberg) 1m23.063s
7 Haas (Grosjean) 1m23.077s
8 Toro Rosso (Gasly)1m23.402s
9 Williams (Sirotkin) 1m23.514s
10 McLaren (Alonso), 1m23.741s

But it didn't all run smoothly for Ferrari. Vettel spun at the Parabolica after the rear stepped out, and there were hints of turn-in instability on the car earlier in the session.

Team-mate Kimi Raikkonen was also working on dialling out some instability, but found himself picking up understeer as a result. So, the balance at Ferrari is not perfect. But it rarely is on a Friday, and Ferrari ordinarily makes good steps overnight.

Unsurprisingly, the overall pace ranking is very similar to this stage at Spa last week, albeit with Sauber and Renault swapping places and Williams jumping McLaren.

When it comes to long-run pace, Ferrari also holds the upper hand. Based on a six-lap run on supersoft Pirellis, which will be the starting tyre for the top 10 unless some of the frontrunners choose to get through Q2 on the softs - only around 0.4s slower - the advantage is very similar to that on single lap pace.

"I'm always keen to look at the whole package and not try to split it into different factors. I think the difference to Mercedes overall was very small at the end [at Spa]" Mattia Binotto

There is a chance of blistering, which would likely affect the supersofts more, so for the top three teams the softs might appeal given they also looked quick over long runs. Given it will likely be warmer later in the weekend, and teams didn't run especially long in Friday's shortened afternoon session, tyre blistering could be significant.

That could be bad news for Mercedes, which struggled with blistering of the rears significantly more than Ferrari did at Spa last weekend. And at Monza, given the track configuration, front blistering can also be a problem given the longitudinal loads involved.

Vettel's supersoft run, admittedly done a little later in the session, was on average 0.227s faster than Hamilton's. As ever, with a healthy step expected from Ferrari from Friday to Saturday, that clearly establishes Vettel as the man to beat.

Long-run pace

1 Ferrari (Vettel) 1m24.923s
2 Mercedes (Hamilton) 1m25.150s
3 Red Bull (Verstappen) 1m25.881s
4 Force India (Perez) 1m26.101s
5 Toro Rosso (Gasly) 1m26.308s
6 Renault (Hulkenberg) 1m26.334s
7 Haas (Magnussen) 1m26.560s
8 McLaren (Vandoorne) 1m26.741s
9 Williams (Sirotkin) 1m27.046s

*No supersoft data for Sauber

Hamilton's pace on the soft rubber, which we only had a snapshot of, looked similar to that of Kimi Raikkonen's longer run. This suggests again the Mercedes gets more comfortable as the tyre compounds get harder.

To all this we must add the usual caveats that this is only Friday practice and things will evolve over the weekend. But everything we saw today suggest Ferrari has at least two tenths in its pocket.

"P2 was good," said Hamilton of his Friday afternoon session. "Today, it seems like the Ferrari's still have that advantage that they had in the last race so we've just got some work to do right now to see how we can recover some of it."

If Ferrari doesn't ace qualifying and a Mercedes can grab track position, that would turn the weekend on its head given the difficulty in overtaking and the fact this should be a one-stop race

Hamilton reckoned that the disadvantage to Ferrari lies on the straights and in the two Lesmo right-handers in the middle sectors. Given Hamilton set the pace in the speed traps based on speed without a tow - 6km/h faster than Vettel - it could well be that Ferrari can afford to run a little more wing and still fly on the straights while Mercedes has to take off more.

And remember, top speed is only a snapshot. This shows Hamilton was faster in the main speed trap but it's the relative pace throughout the straight that dictates speed. The engine package is certainly an important part of Ferrari's advantage. Whatever happens, this does appear to be a continuation of Spa.

"I'm always more keen to look at the whole package and not try to split it into different factors," said Ferrari chief technical officer Mattia Binotto. "I think the difference to Mercedes overall was very small at the end [at Spa].

"To try to distinguish if there is a little difference, where it's coming from, is a very difficult exercise. Our package is working well as a whole, from the aero, from the chassis, mechanicals and the power unit and I think that as well in terms of development we are focused on all the areas."


Realistically, qualifying - combined with what happens on the run down to the first corner - is likely to decide the destiny of the race. Monza is not a circuit where overtaking is very easy without a substantial pace advantage, and while at Spa whoever was second out of La Source on the first lap was always in with a good chance of making a pass, the same doesn't apply here.

With Mercedes presumably taking a more trimmed out approach, any chance Hamilton has could depend on a qualifying special built on hanging onto the car in the medium and fast corners then getting the benefit of that on the straights.

And if, as at Spa, Ferrari doesn't ace qualifying and a Mercedes driver can grab track position, that would turn the weekend on its head given the difficulty in overtaking and the fact this should be a one-stop race. Perhaps Vettel's off, and the set-up work still to be done at Ferrari, gives a glimmer of hope for Saturday.

This is why there's a bigger chance of Mercedes taking victory than at Spa, even though it is clearly second favourite. As Hamilton said last week, even if he got back ahead in that race he expected Vettel to glide past again. But if he gets track position here, it's going to be far more realistic to hold onto it.

But for Mercedes, this weekend is all about minimising the damage. Vettel is expected to win, as is Ferrari, whereas if Hamilton and Mercedes can bank a second that would count as a good weekend's work. This means a lot will depend on Kimi Raikkonen in the second Ferrari delivering in Q3, which hasn't always been a strength for him even though at Spa it was the lack of fuel that was to blame for him underachieving.

And while Ferrari team principal Maurizio Arrivabene rightly said earlier this week Mercedes is not used to the pressure and that is perhaps leading to mistakes, given the expectations now are piled onto the Maranello team the pendulum could swing.

After all, could there be more pressure than to take a vital victory in the world championship battle in front of the demanding tifosi?