The nine days that will define Ferrari's season

Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel head into the business end of the Belgian Grand Prix weekend playing catch-up in the world championship. Based on all indications so far, they potentially have the pace to cut into Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton's advantage both at Spa and in next weekend's Monza race - but it might not be as easy as some predicted.

If Vettel can bounce back from rain-inspired disappointments in both the German and Hungarian Grands Prix, he will at least cut Hamilton's 24-point lead to 10 - fewer if Kimi Raikkonen can back him up. But if Ferrari falls short, the landscape will be very different heading into the last seven races of the season.

That's why what happens in the next nine days will be so vital to Ferrari's season - is it going to fight toe-to-toe with, and even pull away from, under-pressure Mercedes, or will it still be playing catch-up?

It's so important for Ferrari to make up ground because it had the quickest car both at Hockenheim and the Hungaroring, but came away without a victory. And even if Ferrari does have the slight edge, Mercedes should be closer at both Spa and Monza than it has been in previous races - ready to capitalise on any opportunity or slip-up.

"Compared to the last two races, we have a better opportunity, a better chance," said Hamilton on Thursday. "So we need to deliver what we did the last race, and capitalise on it."

There is also a significant curveball here, with both Ferrari and Mercedes bringing the third version of their 2018 V6 engines. While that's bad news for Valtteri Bottas, who is cast to the back of the grid thanks to power unit change penalties - a strategic choice given it hurts less here than at other tracks - it may change the balance of power between Ferrari and Mercedes.

This is a power circuit, and based on that you'd expect Ferrari to have an advantage. What we don't know is whether things have changed. The next two days will answer that key question.

What we can be certain of is that during Friday practice at Spa, Ferrari was ahead on single-lap pace. Add that to the fact that Ferrari generally makes a bigger step from Friday through to Q3, and that's encouraging for everyone at Maranello.

While Vettel didn't set a representative qualifying simulation time thanks to an error at Stavelot, Raikkonen - a four-time Belgian GP winner who loves this track - did, and put himself 0.168 seconds clear of Hamilton.

It's impossible to judge whether Vettel could have been faster. But given that, on an adjusted average removing anomalous qualifying sessions, in dry conditions Vettel has averaged around three-tenths faster than Raikkonen this year, it's not unreasonable to suggest he could have been, even though it's unlikely he'd have been that margin up the road from Raikkonen.

"The long runs were poor and scrappy affairs with both drivers. A mixture of traffic and flat-spotting meant we didn't establish the rhythm that gives you a warm feeling" James Allison

Unsurprisingly, we can rule out Red Bull as a serious threat in qualifying given its deficit, even with around 0.15s apparently gained in lap time thanks to ExxonMobil bringing a new version of the Esso Synergy fuel Red Bull uses to Spa.

Looking at the single-lap pace on Friday - based on the pace of each team on qualifying simulation runs using supersoft Pirellis in practice two - what really stands out is the pace of the 'new' Racing Point Force India team.

While Esteban Ocon's session was compromised by losing running on his first set of tyres to a puncture, Sergio Perez parked himself in no-man's land between the top three and the midfield. So impressive was that lap time that it actually put him closer to the top six than the rest of the field, led by Renault.

It seems that not only has the takeover reincarnated the team, but also recreated its performance level from last season when it was comfortably fourth best.

Single-lap pace

1 Ferrari (Raikkonen), 1m43.355s
2 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m43.523s
3 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m44.046s
4 Force India (Perez), 1m44.662s
5 Renault (Sainz), 1m45.481s
6 Sauber (Ericsson), 1m45.537s
7 Haas (Grosjean), 1m45.817s
8 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m46.080s
9 McLaren (Alonso), 1m46.153s
10 Williams (Sirotkin), 1m46.451s

But single-lap pace is not everything, particularly at Spa where overtaking is eminently possible. While last year Vettel hung onto the back of Hamilton for the whole race, the 2017 Ferrari wasn't quite close enough on pace to make a decisive move.

As for this year, the long-run data is very sketchy. The supersoft Pirellis are the quickest tyre and will be the fastest in qualifying - but we may well see frontrunners using the softs in Q2 to avoid using the least enduring tyre on Sunday.

But for ease of comparison, we'll look at the pace on supersofts for long-run comparisons. Given the length of the track, and the short lengths of the stints, the below is based on three counting laps with anomalous slow ones discounted. It paints a far more muddled picture.

These times should also be looked at with the massive caveat that this is a very small sample set of laps. So, at best it's a gentle indicator rather than a definitive guide.

Long-run pace

1 Mercedes (Bottas), 1m48.273s
2 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m48.674s
3 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m48.730s
4 Renault (Sainz), 1m49.160s
5 Force india (Perez), 1m49.397s
6 Haas (Grosjean), 1m50.382s
7 Sauber (Ericsson), 1m50.415s
8 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m50.551s
9 McLaren (Alonso), 1m50.687s
10 Williams (Stroll), 1m50.757s

Interestingly, judging by the pace on the soft Pirellis of the Mercedes of Bottas (Hamilton did his comparable run on mediums), Bottas had a similar margin of around four-tenths over Raikkonen's Ferrari.

That's potentially promising for Mercedes, although Hamilton's pace on supersofts was basically the same as Vettel's. Potentially, Bottas was running a different programme, but if not there is a suggestion there that the Mercedes underlying race pace is very good.

It could also be that Pirelli's relative conservative tyre selections plays into its hands given that the softer the tyre, the more Mercedes tends to struggle.

But given Mercedes technical director James Allison wasn't especially happy with the long run pace, that perhaps points to the fact Bottas's times weren't as good as they superficially appear.

Ferrari had the advantage over a single lap, and Vettel was stunningly fast on mediums. Whether that's enough to point to Ferrari having a decisive advantage is difficult to be sure of

"Both drivers at various points of both session looked quick and that the new engines ran reliably and showed a promising performance," said Allison. "The area where we need to do more work is that the long runs were poor and scrappy affairs with both drivers.

"A mixture of traffic and flat-spotting meant that we didn't establish the rhythm that gives you a warm feeling going into Sunday. So it was not a bad day, but it could have been better and we will do our traditional job of tucking in overnight to see what we can improve to make sure that the cars have got a good combination of single lap pace and long-run speed."

There's also the Vettel/Ferrari Friday-to-Saturday step to consider. And while only two of the top six runners did a long run on the mediums, Vettel's pace over nine laps on that tyre was very eye-catching - averaging 1m48.302s. That's faster than anyone managed on softs and only fractionally slower than Bottas's supersoft pace. That's hugely promising. Hamilton, by contrast, was eight-tenths slower on average over seven laps on an admittedly messy run.

So, make of that what you will. What we do know is that Ferrari had the advantage over a single lap, and Vettel was stunningly fast on mediums. Whether that's enough to point to Ferrari having a decisive advantage it needs to capitalise on, or not, is difficult to be sure of.

But Ferrari is certainly in the game. And after two victories were lost in Germany and Hungary, it needs to get the most out of the Belgian GP - and the Italian race that follows - to ensure that it goes into the title run-in in the thick of the fight rather than having to force the issue.

Singapore's Marina Bay is a circuit where Mercedes has struggled in recent years and Ferrari has excelled, but the difference between Vettel going into that race close in the points and a situation where he can't afford to lose is huge. Remember what happened at the start last year when Vettel was under the intense pressure of knowing failure was not an option...

That's what makes these two races, and particularly what Vettel does, so crucial. If Ferrari really does have a clear advantage, it must dominate. And if it's nip and tuck, then Ferrari must ace it on all the marginal calls.

If it does either, then Ferrari and Vettel will surely be clear favourites for the rest of the year. If Hamilton holds, or even extends, his lead, the story will be very different.