Ranking the F1 teams at the summer break

The 2018 Formula 1 season has produced a nip and tuck battle at the front between Mercedes and Ferrari - with occasional interruptions from Red Bull.

Compared to last year, Mercedes has lost a little and Ferrari has gained a little in constructors' points terms - Mercedes has 345 points compared to last year's 357, while Ferrari has gone from 318 to 335.

On overall performance, it's never been closer. To judge performance from circuit to circuit, we use the 'supertimes' method of taking each car's fastest lap over a weekend and calculating it as a percentage of the outright fastest.

These percentages can then be averaged out over the season to give an overall performance figure. Mercedes is just ahead, on average, with 100.170%, with Ferrari nipping at its heels on 100.192% - although interestingly Ferrari has had a faster car than Mercedes in seven out of 12 weekends.

This means it's difficult to get a handle on which of these two teams really is the quickest. Last year, it was obvious Ferrari had the whip hand on slower circuits, and Mercedes on the faster ones.

Then, this year, we've seen Ferrari thrashing Mercedes at Silverstone and Mercedes winning at the Hungaroring. This means it often comes down to who gets it right on the day.

Driver-wise, it's been a battle between Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel. Both have lost a race they were on course to win - Hamilton to a strategy blunder and subsequent retirement in Austria and Vettel to crashing in Germany, so it's even on that front.

The rest of the time, it's largely been down to car performance and, even more importantly, team performance, in terms of strategy calls. Then, of course, there's been the rain to deal with.

Neither team has excelled strategically, but overall I'm pretty sure indecisions or poor choices have cancelled each other out.

Red Bull is faster compared to last year, with an average performance of 100.652%, but that's not close enough. Most important is the final decision has been made on the team switching to Honda, so it's now all about building to next year after picking up three wins in the first part of the year and then focusing on 2019.

How the 2018 F1 field stacks up

Measuring the outright pace of each car so far this season (%)

For teams such as McLaren and Williams, who have both lost their way, when to focus on next year is a difficult decision. I always liked to make sure I understood why we had made mistakes to try to eliminate the risk of carrying them into the next season.

With any new design there is always a risk but if you produce your new car after not quite understanding why you struggled the previous season, it's very easy to end up with twice the problems.

Looking at the 2018 season so far only gives us one set of data. So, for each team I have looked at their performance for the last four races of '17 and split this year's 12 races into four-race blocks.

That way we can see who has improved from the end of 2017 and who is improving or not as the '18 season progresses. I have also done this for the constructors' championship points to give an indication of who has improved on race day.

So, let's look through the teams, in overall performance order rather than championship order.

THE LEAD BATTLE

The top three constructors' performance

Comparing the pace of Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull

1 Mercedes

Average 2018 performance: 100.170%
Change from 2017: 0.085% loss
Points: 345

Mercedes' performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2017 and the first 12 races of 2018

Mercedes has held onto its top-of-the-class position for another season, but it hasn't been so easy. Its average performance has dropped slightly and it hasn't got as many points as at the same stage last year.

Mercedes continued with its long wheelbase philosophy for 2018. As technical director James Allison said at the beginning of the year, the team builds a car for overall performance through the season rather than focusing on any specific type of track.

If I had to stick my neck out, I would say that over the first eight or so races Mercedes was actually better than the end results suggest. Over the last four races it has been second best to Ferrari, but has actually scored more points.

Mercedes runs its car with less rake (lower rear ride height) than Red Bull and Ferrari. Because of this the car will produce less underbody downforce, but it is not just as simple as raising the rear ride height because the complete aerodynamic package would need to be optimised around that. So, it's not something that could be incorporated this year and it would have knock on effects on the rest of the car.

Mercedes is ahead in both championships, but it's close so it's going to come down to which team does the better job in the second half of the year.

2 Ferrari

Average 2018 performance: 100.192%
Change from 2017: 0.071% gain
Points: 335

Ferrari's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2017 and the first 12 races of 2018

This year has been another step forward for Ferrari in terms of both chassis and engine performance.

Many now say Ferrari is setting the standards on power unit performance and might even be pushing it that little bit too far. I don't agree with that as I believe the FIA would come down on Ferrari like a tonne of bricks if anything dodgy was going on.

After all, when Mercedes was blitzing everyone it was always about how good a job it had done and how poor the other engine suppliers' performance-levels were. So, give Ferrari credit where it's due. If Ferrari has found that little bit extra from its twin battery then well done.

Ferrari has lengthened its wheelbase, not to become as long as Mercedes, but still it went in that direction. Last year, on the slower tracks, the Ferrari was a step above and behind on the fast circuits, but now things are more equal.

The latest major development of the slots in the outer edges of the floor was a good step forward and a development that I don't think Mercedes would get the same benefit from.

If you look at the two cars, it is the sidepod inlet and bargeboard area that is quite different and this is the area that really makes the underfloor come to life. So, neither team can simply try the other's concept.

3 Red Bull

Average 2018 performance: 100.670%
Change from 2017: 0.288% gain
Points: 223

Red Bull's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2017 and the first 12 races of 2018

Red Bull hasn't made up the ground on the top two that I expected. I'm sure it's losing a bit with the Renault engine package but I still expected more from the team.

The driver line-up is as strong as any in the pitlane, and Red Bull is the only team to have produced a real upset on race day. That reflects the fact it's probably the best team at executing a reactive strategy. When something unusual happens, Red Bull gives it a shot.

As for the car, it does run with a very aggressive rake and what I don't quite understand is how it can run for so much of the lap with the car's front skidplate running on the ground. It is only a piece of titanium so it must wear and the wear in this area is controlled in the regulations.

By running that rake, it will produce more underbody downforce for the corners but it will also produce more drag on the straights. So, for some circuits there might just be a better compromise of corner speed to straightline speed.

Next year, much will depend on the Honda power unit. Given how strained Red Bull's Renault relationship is, it could be a long second half of the season.

THE MIDFIELD BATTLE

The midfield teams' performance compared

The fluctuating pace of the midfield teams in 2018

4 Haas

Average 2018 performance: 101.921%
Change from 2017: 0.938% gain
Points: 66

Haas's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2017 and the first 12 races of 2018

Haas is probably the surprise of the year and it has even been suggested that its technical relationship with Ferrari might be just going that little bit too far. I don't agree, but Haas is the team that came into 2018 taking the least risks.

By developing what it understood from last year, Haas made the best out of the start of the season and has upgraded well.

Haas is still a bit hit and miss at times, and has only picked up two double-points finishes in 12 races. With fewer mistakes on and off track, there would be a bunch more points adding up to a comfortable fourth in the constructors' championship.

The Ferrari engine is right up there with the Mercedes and Haas is taking the benefit of that along with its technical relationship. For a team that is still relatively new to F1, having Dallara constructing the car is the best possible situation.

If you intend to do it all yourself, it is all the manufacturing infrastructure that takes time to get right. Haas doesn't have this headache.

5 Renault

Average 2018 performance: 101.935%
Change from 2017: 0.252% gain
Points: 82

Renault's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2017 and the first 12 races of 2018

Renault is now up and running as a full works team and has more or less recovered from the days when the team, then running under the Lotus banner, was losing personnel because of lack of investment.

Renault is experiencing its own engine problems, so it's understanding Red Bull's frustrations first-hand. This alone will be a positive, because it will force Renault to get on top of the situation, otherwise the management of the team will have some serious questions to answer.

Once you get past the big three, the consistency of the teams seems to drop off. On a good day, the Renault will be up there as best of the rest but on a bad day it will be battling to get into Q3.

It just seems Renault doesn't have the car understanding of the bigger teams. Perhaps this is down to its simulation tools because preparation before an event is what gives the start-point level. After that, it is down to maintaining it from circuit data and a bit of head scratching.

Bob Bell is no longer chief technical officer and has taken up a part time role as an advisor. This is a strange move to make just as his efforts in setting up the team's structure were coming to fruition.

It might just be that ex-FIA man Marcin Budkowski will be taking up that role. Bob is a good guy with lots of experience and his feet on the ground, so if he is entirely replaced he will be missed.

6 Force India

Average 2018 performance: 102.332%
Change from 2017: 0.133% loss
Points: 59

Force India's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2017 and the first 12 races of 2018

After two seasons of finishing fourth in the constructors' championship, this year has been a bit of a letdown. Yes, Force India has had major financial problems and was briefly in administration, but it should have started the season stronger.

In pre-season testing, it was all going to be down to a big upgrade for the season-opening Australian Grand Prix. Yes, that helped, but it wasn't enough and Force India struggled while others went forward - so it was a double whammy.

Like the rest of the midfield, its performance has been a bit erratic. Some races, Force India has been right in there heading up the midfield but at others it has been eliminated in Q1.

From where it is right now, I don't see Force India hanging on to that fourth in the constructors' championship. Research and then manufacturing of components to improve performance will take time even though there are some upgrades that have been designed and can now be made.

If the new ownership can do that and keep things together, we should see Force India back at its best in 2019.

7 McLaren

Average 2018 performance: 102.645%
Change from 2017: 0.135% loss
Points: 52

McLaren's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2017 and the first 12 races of 2018

It's pretty difficult to say anything too positive about where McLaren has been over the last few years, or where it looks to be going. Changing from Honda to Renault was going to be its big saviour, and the top brass stated that they were going to be fighting with Red Bull for podium positions. But they got that wrong in a big way and even the rebuilding Renault works team has performed better.

Lots of personnel changes have been made over the first half of the season and with that comes instability for the people still working there. If you are always looking over your shoulder and wondering if you are next you tend to not express yourself. So, you get a 'head down and keep out of trouble' attitude.

At least now McLaren has a measure of where it really is performance-wise and doesn't have the Honda situation to hide behind. If McLaren takes the lessons on board, this year could be a key turning point.

If and when James Key can start as technical director will be crucial to its long-term planning but for now it is all down to doing the best it can from what it has left. McLaren has some good people in place, I just don't think they were used correctly.

New sporting director Gil De Ferran is a successful racer and I believe he knows how much he had to put into it to get there. He won't be frightened to ask the questions of why McLaren is where it is.

I'm pretty sure there is going to be more pain before we see much gain, but sometimes that can be a positive thing. As the years go by all these teams grow and sometimes they need a little thinning out.

My biggest worry is that it becomes Fernando Alonso Racing rather than McLaren. He is a strong character, but as we have seen on many occasions he has made some poor decisions. If you give a driver too much control it normally ends up a disaster.

8 Toro Rosso

Average 2018 performance: 102.804%
Change from 2017: 0.074% loss
Points: 28

Toro Rosso's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2017 and the first 12 races of 2018

Toro Rosso has always been a team that has blown hot and cold, but it has never really had much stability in either engines or drivers.

It has changed engines four times in consecutive seasons and these are not simple changes. Today's power units have so much baggage with them that is different from manufacturer to manufacturer. Under the bonnet, you can hardly see the actual V6 engine.

For a small team to do this year in, year out it is a massive task. The price must be paid somewhere as you only have a certain amount of engineering working hours. If you are always focused on just getting a car together, then the performance will suffer.

Everyone thought that going into 2018 Toro Rosso using the Honda engine was going to be a disaster. Over the previous three seasons, McLaren had very few compliments for Honda's ability to build a competitive, or even a reliable, power unit, but that has now been proved wrong.

Yes, it has had a few problems but then again nothing like Renault has suffered - and even Mercedes has had a couple of setbacks. I'm pretty sure it will be suffering a few grid penalties before the season is out, but that is all in a positive direction for 2019. The more Honda can experiment this year the better it will be next year.

Toro Rosso still has its ups and downs. A fourth in Bahrain and a sixth in Hungary have been the highlights of the season but these were strong weekends and Toro Rosso was competitive right the way through. The bad weekends need to be eliminated though.

The loss of technical director James Key is a big hit. James worked well in this environment and got on well with team principal Franz Tost. They both seemed to trust that each other was bringing the best possible to the team and that is something that not many teams have in place.

9 Sauber

Average 2018 performance: 102.886%
Change from 2017: 1.243% gain
Points: 18

Sauber's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2017 and the first 12 races of 2018

Sauber started the season poorly. The new car was a step in the right direction but it took the team and rookie Charles Leclerc a few races to come to terms with it. In the early races, the rear end of the car wasn't very stable and because of this he made some early season errors.

Once Sauber had got on top of the car, it became a regular Q2 contenders and surprised everyone when Leclerc made it into Q3 on three occasions.

The car has developed well over the season and the relationship with Ferrari has also been a vital part of this development process.

Sauber has also incorporated some ex-Ferrari engineers into its structure to improve that technical relationship.

10 Williams

Average 2018 performance: 103.499%
Change from 2017: 0.975% loss
Points: 4

Williams's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2017 and the first 12 races of 2018

This has been a season to forget for Williams, and its history of success is now firmly in the past.

Just looking back to 2014, when the engine regulations changed to their current guise, Williams finished third in the constructors' championship and was a regular podium contender.

Since then, it has been on a downward trajectory to this current slump.

Paddy Lowe came in from success at both McLaren and Mercedes and I think more was expected from him, but it is never just down to one person. It is the structure and procedures, or the lack of them, that needs to be addressed. But you can't take forever to do that.

We've all made mistakes with the design of new cars, but 12 races into the season and I would have expected more progress. The fact Williams hasn't really moved forward suggests it is still struggling to understand where the problem originates.

Performance swing 2017/18 (%)

Who has gained (left) or lost ground (right) compared to last year

It has been an interesting start to the season and it will be interesting to see how things have changed for the Belgian Grand Prix weekend. After all, it's a real racer's circuit with its own weather patterns that have often bowled teams a googly when it was least expected.