Timing is everything in Formula 1, and for a driver being in the right place at the right time is a prerequisite for success. Daniel Ricciardo is staking his immediate future on his timing being bang on.
But history tells us this is a huge risk. Usually, when top drivers sign new deals they either move up the grid or cement an existing relationship with a strong team. But Ricciardo has turned down an extended stay at a race-winning squad to join one that hasn't been on the top step of the podium for more than five years.
Comparisons have been drawn between Ricciardo's decision to turn his back on Red Bull and sign for Renault for 2019 to Lewis Hamilton forsaking McLaren for Mercedes ahead of the '13 season. Superficially, there are similarities, but it's a dangerous analogue because Renault is some way short of where Mercedes was when Hamilton signed on the dotted line in September '12.