How Ricciardo arrived at his toughest choice

Last week's news that Daniel Ricciardo will move to Renault came as a surprise to the Formula 1 world - and not least to Red Bull, given that the team was expecting the Australian to put pen to paper and finally commit to staying for 2019.

Instead he's decided to jump ship after a decade in the Red Bull camp and take on a new challenge as Nico Hulkenberg's team-mate.

"By far the toughest decision I've made in my racing career," Ricciardo said in a video message. "But 29 years living on this Earth, it was [also] actually one of the toughest life decisions I've made."

He hasn't had to make too many career decisions over the past decade. That's what comes with being a long-term Red Bull driver - everything was done for him. With that contract elapsing, this was the first time that his future was back in his own hands. Without a professional manager well versed in paddock politics, it was down to him, with input from his family and, on the business side, his lawyer.

Ricciardo's plans for 2019 and beyond have been the subject of debate since September last year, when it was announced that Toro Rosso was joining forces with Honda.

It was obvious then that the longer-term objective was to switch the senior Red Bull team across too for 2019, which would coincide with the end of Ricciardo's contract.

In October came the news that Max Verstappen had extended his contract to cover the 2018, '19 and '20 seasons, accompanied by talk of a megabucks deal that put the Dutchman into the big leagues in terms of pay. That gave Ricciardo food for thought, especially when the media asked why he hadn't yet been offered such a firm and lucrative commitment.

But Red Bull team boss Christian Horner made it clear back then that there were no plans to make any changes.

"The intent is to ensure that we keep Daniel in the car past the end of 2018," he said. "That's absolutely our goal, to retain both drivers. For me it's the best driver line-up that we've had, I think it's probably the best driver line-up on the grid, and we're obviously very keen to retain that.

"Time will tell. Daniel is very happy within the team. If we can provide a competitive car, then I've got every confidence that he will be here in the future."

"By far the toughest decision I've made in my racing career. But 29 years living on this Earth, it was actually one of the toughest life decisions I've made" Daniel Ricciardo

Everyone understood that Ricciardo was ambitious, that he was frustrated by the limitations of the Renault power unit, and that he was keen to move to Mercedes or Ferrari, where winning the title was a realistic possibility.

It was obvious too that the Verstappen situation was an issue for him. But if he left, would he really want to be reunited at Ferrari with Sebastian Vettel, his Red Bull team-mate in 2014? Or jump in alongside Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes? In either case he'd be partnering a driver fully integrated in the team and absolutely at the top of their game.

"He would have the same issues within those teams," Horner said as he laid out the case for Ricciardo to stay put. "I think Red Bull fits his personality well. The way that we operate, he sees very equal treatment and that he's not performing a supporting role.

"We give both drivers absolute opportunity. Within the other teams you would be performing very much a supporting role."

Heading into the 2018 season, Ricciardo was keeping an eye on his options, while tentatively opening discussions with his employer.

Ferrari, if it ever was a serious prospect, began to recede. From the start of this season Sauber's Charles Leclerc signalled that he was the real deal, and Sergio Marchionne had made it clear that he wanted to promote the youngster. Why pay big bucks for an established race winner like Ricciardo?

Mercedes remained the interesting option. In the wake of Nico Rosberg's sudden departure at the end of 2016, anything seemed possible. Would Hamilton retire, or maybe take a sabbatical? And would Valtteri Bottas maintain enough momentum to ensure he was a no-brainer for 2019?

Even before getting the official answers, Ricciardo could sense which way the wind was blowing at Mercedes, and his contract-extension talks with Red Bull became more serious. His wins in China and especially Monaco raised his stock considerably - and the fact that Verstappen was in the middle of a run of frustrating mistakes didn't hurt.

A major development came at the French GP, with the official confirmation of Red Bull's switch to Honda for 2019 and '20. Ricciardo, well aware that this move had been on the cards, now had to factor it into the equation.

That weekend Horner and Adrian Newey explained to him in detail the reasons why they had made the decision. Frustration with Renault and a desire to be a manufacturer's main priority was part of it, but there were performance factors too.

The numbers generated by Toro Rosso suggested that Honda was now at least on a par with Renault and, more importantly, had upwards momentum. Renault, in contrast, still appeared to be making tortuous progress. Indeed, Red Bull believes that Newey's RB14 would have won races in 2018 with the Honda engine - and that includes Ricciardo's own victories in China and Monaco.

Ricciardo was happy with planned changes in the engineering front, with his long-time race engineer Simon Rennie moving to a factory job for 2019 and newcomer Mike Lugg -with whom he had worked in his Formula 3 days - coming in from Formula E.

Some 10 days after the Honda announcement there was another key event when Ricciardo met with Red Bull boss Dietrich Mateschitz at the Austrian GP.

Mateschitz made it clear how much he valued Ricciardo and put his money where his mouth was by offering a pay rise that created equality with Verstappen

It was his chance to express any doubts he had about the future. Mateschitz made it clear how much he valued him, and crucially put his money where his mouth was by offering a pay rise that created equality with Verstappen. With lucrative bonuses for results factored in, Ricciardo now had a dream deal.

Coincidentally on that very weekend Verstappen put all the fuss about his mistakes behind him with a brilliantly controlled performance to log his first win of 2018.

Then at Hockenheim Mercedes confirmed both Hamilton and Bottas for 2019-20, although in the Finn's case the second season was just an option. Ricciardo's last chance to make a step up the grid for '19 was gone, and signing his Red Bull deal seemed to be a formality.

"I think now that Lewis Hamilton's announcement has been made, you'll see everything run pretty quickly," Horner said that weekend. "We're aiming to have things finalised by the summer break. It will be good to go into the break with everything sorted."

Ricciardo agreed that he wanted his plans sorted before heading off on holiday.

"It's getting more realistic, I'd say," he said. "I think obviously the picture with everyone else is starting to be pretty clear. I guess probably early next week I'll try to get everything done.

When asked if it was up to him rather than the team to trigger the signing, he replied: "The majority, I would say... The majority."

The details were handled on the driver's behalf by his lawyer. It came down to the usual fine-print about money, number of PR days and so on, but as things dragged out Red Bull began to wonder if something was up.

In fact there was one stumbling block. From the start, it was going to be a two-year deal, but Ricciardo still had some reservations. If the team didn't perform in 2019, he wanted to be free to walk away in '20.

Presumably the fact that Bottas was only under option at Mercedes for 2020 had intrigued him, notwithstanding the potential availability of Esteban Ocon, should Toto Wolff want a change. Then there was Ferrari. The sudden death of Marchionne had seemingly made Leclerc less of a certainty for a Maranello seat in '19. Would that also confuse the issue for '20?

So Ricciardo was keen to keep the door open. It was eventually agreed that if Red Bull did not maintain its top-three position in the constructors' championship in 2019, he could indeed walk away at the end of the year. That was agreed in Budapest and the contract was due to be signed early last week.

Then Ricciardo had second thoughts. On the Monday after Hungary the team learned that he wanted to switch to a straight one-year deal, without the necessity to worry about championship positions in 2019. This was a huge change, so big that it had to be run by Mateschitz, but the boss agreed. Finally it appeared that the deal was done.

But after testing in Budapest on the Tuesday, Ricciardo headed off to North America the following day with the contract still unsigned. He clearly did some serious thinking on the flight.

Ferrari and Mercedes had fallen by the wayside, but McLaren and Renault had also indicated an interest in Ricciardo's services. Although clearly neither represented the instant step up in performance that he wanted.

Ricciardo is following a path trodden by several other top drivers. A natural desire to want to cut the ties with the team that discovered you as a teenager, brought you through the ranks, and gave you your F1 break

And yet despite Ocon being lined up for Enstone in a loan deal orchestrated by Wolff, and Renault boss Cyril Abiteboul suggesting that it was too early to sign a major star, the French manufacturer was in the game - and in Ricciardo's thoughts.

Whatever last-minute sales pitch Abiteboul made paid dividends. Ricciardo rang Horner and Helmut Marko from the US on Thursday. He wasn't going to stay, he wanted a new challenge and he was off to Renault. Both men were left stunned by what they heard.

But should they be so surprised? Their man is following a path trodden by several other top drivers in the recent past. There's a natural desire to want to cut the ties with the team that discovered you as a teenager, brought you through the ranks and gave you your F1 break - it's part of the growing up process.

It happened with Fernando Alonso and Renault, Hamilton and McLaren, and Vettel and Red Bull. All eventually concluded that it was time to move on, seek a new challenge, get paid more money and be appreciated as a superstar - and not be taken for granted, forever regarded within the camp as 'that kid that we made into a winner'.

In the case of Hamilton and Vettel (as Alonso shifted sideways to McLaren) the moves were accompanied by a wish to be part of building up a team. Joining a 'project', making a big commitment and feeling appreciated for so doing is clearly one element of Ricciardo's decision. As indeed it was for Hulkenberg when he gave up on pursuing a drive with an established frontrunner.

Ricciardo has drawn some inspiration from Hamilton's move from McLaren to the then fifth-ranked Mercedes for 2013, which many criticised. However, at the time there were sound reasons to expect progress, with the pieces having been put in place by Ross Brawn and with the hybrid V6 rules on the horizon.

Renault has made steps since it took over the ailing Lotus team and it has been steadily building up its resources. But there remains a huge gulf in performance to customer team Red Bull and that can only be down to chassis and aero. Which package will show better performance in 2019 - the works Renault, or Newey's RB15 with Honda power? The smart money has to be on the latter.

And while Honda has registered a significant improvement in terms of reliability, Renault seems to have taken a step back, and Ricciardo himself has added to a long list of PU-related retirements over the past five seasons. Throw in all the grid penalties and he's well aware of Renault's limitations in terms of both performance and reliability.

Meanwhile Renault is believed to be at best paying Ricciardo the sort of salary he'd been promised by Red Bull, and certainly not more. And he has a two-year deal rather than one, restricting his freedom to move in 2020, although there may be performance clauses that will allow him to escape.

So, in terms of commercial arrangements, and potential performance, there's no clear-cut reason for Ricciardo to leave the Red Bull camp.

In the end it may have come down to one simple choice: he didn't want to spend another year or two alongside Verstappen.

Red Bull guaranteed him equal equipment and, better late than never, equal pay. But did that early commitment made to Verstappen last October plant a seed of doubt in Ricciardo's mind, one that's been gnawing away at him ever since?

Did he, as some suspect, see Red Bull as increasingly becoming Verstappen's team, within which it would become ever harder for him to continue to make an impact as the Dutchman gained more experience and ironed out his rough edges?

In the end it may have come down to one simple choice - Ricciardo didn't want to spend another year or two alongside Verstappen

Over his years with Red Bull, while taking seven superbly opportunistic grand prix wins, Ricciardo's stock has been steadily rising. Now he will be up against Hulkenberg, someone who is fast over one lap, has always given his team-mates a hard time, is politically astute and is now well established at Enstone. The German has put a dent in Carlos Sainz Jr's reputation this year - what if he does the same to Ricciardo in 2019?

Maintaining his market value is arguably the biggest challenge Ricciardo now faces. It's in his hands. Beat Hulkenberg more often than not, and be seen to be a team player who helps Renault to edge towards genuine contention for podiums, and he will remain on the radar of the two big players.

Of course, if Renault sticks to its schedule of fighting for the world championship within a couple of years, he may not have to worry about going anywhere else - but would you want to bet your career on that happening?